Agents and Loan Officers Must Get Back to Basics in a Slower Market

Then what? Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with Mike Kelly, Real Estate Jerky Daily. We just got alert to lock right now. Yeah, we're down about 18 basis points right now. Oh, that's a good thing, isn't it? No, that's 18 basis points. That means rates are worse by 18 basis points. 10 years sitting at Oh my god, I haven't seen it this high in decades. 4. 8427s. Oh. 4. 84. Cuz that You know why? Oil's over 100. Yes, it is. Oil's over 100 again. Uh I'm going to get closer. I really want to hear this. That's how you see the opposite way. Keep going. Yes. Uh What did you say? What did you say? What did you say? Yeah, alert to lock. Uh rates are getting uglier out there. I mean, we're no eight and a half yet, thank god.

So, we we've been there we've been there before. Um but also, I just want to remind people, if you make uh $6,500 a month income, you can't afford a $400,000 house. No. Or 450. Well, maybe. Well, depending on if you put down May No, if you're putting down $100,000 maybe, but if you're trying to go FHA, VA Oh, not VA cuz VA people it's different. But FHA and conventional, you have mortgage insurance, right? If you're And so, you're looking at a payment of probably 32 33 and this If you have any other debt, car payment, if you, you know, 250 on a credit cards, you're now over that number. Yeah. So, you really need to make 120 again, $110 $120,000 a year to be able to afford homes now and understand that.

And that's what I think people are looking at homes going, I think I can afford this. I had a couple who The guys give me all his stuff and I'm like, you I you I can only qualify you for a $175,000 home with your income only. It says that you're married on here. Can your spouse come on? Cuz I'm not going to assume I know what their spouse is. And he's like, well, she's got less credit. Let me talk to her. Yeah, you let me talk Cuz you can probably go Even if it's 640 or 620, you can go FHA at 3 and 1/2% down and still get in. So, yeah. And I don't know. They were they were in the middle of nowhere yesterday. They'll get back to me. I just I was qualifying people yesterday and it's like, you know, people It just people just don't understand the numbers these days with rates and everything else.

That shirt and that thing is still pixelating today. Oh, is it? Oh, good. I thought it was kind of a Max headroom. I want to know why the heck it So, it's not the computer, it's not the mic, it's not the other stuff I replaced. The only thing it could be is the internet connection somehow. Yeah, maybe. Or just you. Or maybe I should just wear solid colors. I don't know. Someone told you that a long time ago, but nobody seems to listen. I don't listen. I don't look good in anything, so it doesn't matter anymore. That's not so bad over here. Oh, there. All right, you go. So, that's all I have for today. No, well, I mean, we have uh what came out today. Uh since I'm already talking, ADP national employment report showed that an average increase of 12,000 jobs created in the private sector in the 4 weeks ending August 22.

This suggests a total growth of 48,000 jobs over a 4-week period. The pre- previous report was revised lower from an average gain of 11,750 to 10,000. I mean, with the BLS BLS jobs report just ruined it for us last week that showed it was like three times what there was expecting. Yeah, but once they they go, oh, you know what? We counted this one twice and that one 14 times. Yeah, whatever. We'll see if that happens. The Mortgage Bankers Association released their mortgage application God, it's Wednesday. I keep thinking it's Tuesday. Uh I don't know why. Uh the mortgage application data for the week ending 9/4, that would be last week, showing that overall application volume decreased by 2.

7%. Applications to purchase were unchanged for the week and up 4% year over year and refinances decreased by 6% from the previous week and were 25% lower than a year ago. So, that means people aren't refinancing. Well, no, not with these rates unless they really really have to do it. I mean, well, it depends on your cash outs, you know. If you need If you need cash out to fix some stuff. Alert to lock right on my screen. Go away. Okay, I got it. Alert to lock. Did you lock yet? I don't have anything to lock right now. Everybody's already locked. Oh. Just lock lock something. I lock as soon as they come in. I go through the stuff because the benefit of waiting in the drop isn't enough. And then I have I have like 30 to 40 basis points that I can use on people's loans to buy their rate down and that's what I do and just do that and there you go.

You got your rate. But what if it gets better? Doesn't matter. I already got you better. Got you better. This is what you got for now. Be happy. Don't worry. Uh the rise in oil prices is applying some pressure to the bond market which is slightly lower to start the day. No shit. As oil goes up, so will rates. And remember that. Uh rates uh oil prices go up, rates go up. How can that be? And And what else goes up? Uh costs of goods. What What goes down? Money in your pocket. Yep. Yeah, it's the same. When you carry cash, it's the same. It doesn't buy as much, but it's the same cash. I don't carry a lot of cash. No, it's just It's so expensive. I mean, eating out, everything's ridiculous. Go ahead.

I'll let you go with your numbers. Yeah, it was crazy crazy yesterday. What was yesterday? Oh, look at it. It was a day that uh we ate out and the three of us split it. It was very expensive either though though we split it. Look at that. For the for the first week of um I almost said April. September. This is the ninth, right? This is the last day you can buy tickets for our sweepstakes for an FJ45, a 1975 Well, this is last time for this one. Yeah, we've got another one already purchased. It's actually a much better shape. Um yeah, it's light years above what we just got. Another one we have is very very nice. This one's just very very nicer. Anyway, look at that. 56 homes have closed escrow so far this month, 376 pending sales, and we finally broke the 800s.

801 active listings. Here's my Here's my prediction. Active is going to keep increasing, pendings going down, closed sells are going to probably be less than 200 this month. And then we'll see Yep, and we'll see a little fluctuation in price drops because we've already I mean, uh national, you said we were at 42, a little over 42% of all listings are being reduced. And state last week when we were here, um it was 41 even, 41% that was being reduced that were being reduced before they would be sold. So, there we go. Oh, how fun was that? Who's running Real Remax? I don't know. Nobody right now. Who's running the fake one? I don't Well, Dave Liniger's still around. His Sadly, his wife passed away and she she was pretty amazing lady.

Uh and I think they just hired a new guy to take over Real Remax Group named additional C-suite leaders in an SE filing including CFO Ravi Jani, CTO Prasidami. I can't I'm done. I'm not even going to go through any of these names anymore. So, we were purchased by the Indians. Uh well, there's a No, those are just people who are Well, we have Abigail Lee who's the CMO. That would be chief marketing officer. COO Amy Somerville. Yeah. Operating officer. And CLO chief leasing officer, loan officer. Alex Lumpkin. Lumpkin? Yep. It's just like pumpkin but with an L. But there's still other people still there. The president is still Gina Rosenblatt. Um Remax Group and the Alex Vidal's new role as president of Remax replacing Chris Lim who was appointed Remax president in February this year.

It's going to change. I don't care what anybody ever says. If things get bought bought Oh, nothing's going to change. You can keep your same doctor and your same insurance. Nothing's going to change. It will change. That's just to make you feel better about yourself. No, we expect it. I expect it. Of course, cuz you know. You've seen it. It's everything. I've just seen so many people go, oh, nothing's going to change. That's like when uh Flagstar got bought and Flagstar bought somebody else and we're going to keep everybody yeah, for about a year and then they're going to get rid of everybody cuz once they figure out where the extras are and who's not doing what they're supposed to be and who's stealing this and who's taking that.

Anyway, not a lot of work not a lot of stuff today. No, no. So, what should you do as a loan officer or real estate agent in this market? Talk to your clients. That is correct. There is still opportunities out there. We always say get back to basics and the basics are always talk to your clients. I always say don't ever leave the basics. Right. Well, you you do if you want a very long respite of rest cuz you're not working. Yeah, well, you need to. I I had uh helping the Brave podcast just had some great talks yesterday. It was really good. Um sometimes you have a podcast that is amazing and then sometimes you have them they're like pulling teeth to get people to talk and then sometimes you have conversation you're like, damn, it's been an hour and a half.

Yeah, and we're still talking. That is kind of cool. That's not like with you on the radio though. Well, you don't listen to me when I talk anyway. As soon as As soon as I start speaking, your eyes kind of glaze over. Exactly, see? What'd you say? Uh-oh, I forgot to go live on Instagram. They're a little behind now. Uh-oh. A little behind. Yeah, they're going to be like 9 minutes behind. All right, I mean, that's There's not much to talk about. Um they said they're going to start buying more treasury buyback which will which will help, but it's not going to fix everything. Oh, now I'm getting a call. Alert to lock. You better lock. Go get something till you can lock it. Well, I'm just It's other But right now, it's too late.

What I mean by that, it's already The market already changed. So, it used to be they tell you to lock and by the time you go in and lock your stuff, the lender would be ready to reprice. It's almost automatic now. Yeah. Is the Things change, so does the rates. So, do the So, do the rates. All right. So does. So do What do we got tomorrow? Tomorrow's Thursday. We have initial jobless claims. Thursday. We have uh Oh. When will we have jolts again? Not for a month. We just had it last week. Oh, was it last week? Yes. That's what messed everything No, no, jolts is Sorry, I was thinking You're thinking of jobs. BLS jobs. BLS, yeah. Jobs uh jolts are being about 2 weeks. Yeah, about 2 weeks. So, they were 60,000 over what they were predicting or something like that.

What you mean? Yeah, they were predicting 56,000 jobs. And they had 156,000 jobs on the BLS jobs report. It was a little bit more than they were expecting. Yeah, they counted two columns twice. I mean, the big thing is right Rates are going to might stay under a seven today if the government keeps buying bonds tomorrow. I think I'll refi. No, we just It's It's this war, man. I can't It's been 6 months. Are we still at war? 6 months. Why don't they just bomb the shit out of everything? They did. They have, but you can't bomb a stone age back into the stone age. Uh yeah, that's true. All right, kids. You see some of these places that were bombed years and years ago, they still look the same. Yeah.

Yeah, anyway. Well, they're fixing them um fix them. Fix them what? They're going to fix them up. Fix them Fix them Fix them up. Is that like a new song or something? They're going to A bunch of realtors are going to go over there and start flipping properties. They're going to make the straight so much better. Yeah. Yeah, all right. Call it the straight of America. But the I will say the one thing that's been really nice lately is the fact that we can use FICO 10 or Advantage Score depending on which is higher. And sometimes Advantage Score is higher and sometimes the FICO score is higher, so we're able to pick between the two um for VA and conventional which really works. Okay, all conventional?

Yeah. Cool. Yeah. Cool. I think FHA too, but I'm not 100%. I haven't done an FHA in a long time. You know what I got Monday? You know what I got Monday? I got my first old man spot. You can't see Oh, there it is. My first old man spot. That's all right. Keep it to yourself. Yeah. It's not leprosy. It's not anything else. It's just an old man spot. It really kind of pissed me off. I don't want to be an old man, but I am an old man, so there I am. Goodbye. Have a good day. Enjoy. All right, Popeye. All right, make it a great day we'll be back tomorrow. Maybe he won't talk more about his ailments. Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to talk about something else tomorrow. All right, sounds good. All right, everybody make it a great day.

Have a good day. Have a good day. Bye. Bye. In the heat.