Agents Feel the Slow Market as Rates Push Buyers Toward Caution

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parco here with Mike Kelly, Re/Max Gold, Jersey Daily. A couple of minutes late. It's It's my fault. I have no problem. No, it's just it's the fact that market is just Dow's down 225. The bond market Rates are worse by uh 39 basis points. It was only 22 seconds ago. And the 10-year sitting at 4. 9218. 4. 9218? Yeah, that's up eight basis points. That early Remember, we were at four getting close to We're like, we're going to hit 3. 99 early on in the year, but not right now. We thought. We thought. What does that mean? That means uh rates are worse today and they're going to continue to get worse as long as worse as long as the the oil keeps going up and the oil's going to keep going up as long as the tankers getting blown and and they're not letting stuff through.

I just have a couple things, but I'll let you go first cuz I know you want to update the current numbers for the week cuz it's so many of them. Oh, because it is pretty exciting. It is very exciting. Look at that. Um one more listing from yesterday. Uh 384 pending sales. I think we were at 381 yesterday. And we were at 57 or 58 closed transactions for the month of September and we're now at 63. So things are beginning to happen today. Um but they're not. It's It's It's a typical first week and a half of uh September. So what um Did you hear what Trump said? What did he say now? Well, first of all, he's going to get If he If Republicans get the House and the the Senate and all that all that, he's going to get everybody five grand.

Everybody in the world? Yeah, everybody in the United States. That's Yeah, $5,000. Cool. Yeah. I could use five grand. And then then the Democrats like, that's just buying votes. It's like, cuz you're not empowering. You didn't think of it. Right. But anyway, it's like it's that's not the big thing. The other thing he said that I I thought was really unique is the fact that he said the war will be over soon as the uh prelim the primary is over because they can't hold out any longer. They think the longer they hold out When is that? That's November, right? Right. November 2nd. Yeah, so um that's what he says. They're waiting for that, not us, but Iran is cuz they think the farther longer they hold out, the more they're going to get.

And I was like, oh, I can see that. Then they're going to say, okay, we can't We have no control. We're not going to do two years. That's the next election. Right. Yeah. You got it. You got it. All right, so what else happened today? We had initial jobless claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was reported at 206,000. 206,000 uh for last week. This represents a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week revised figure of 207,000 and was above expectations of 205,000. Continuing claims decreased to 1. 774 million from the previous week revised figure of 1. 775 million. So people are getting kicked off and people are still going on. You would think, oh, that's great news for us.

It is uh but the producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation, was reported for the month of August. The headline PPI figure increased by 4/10 of a percent month over month, in line with expectations. On a year over year basis, PPI increased 0. 6% to 5. 4%, a little higher than the 5. 3 estimate. And core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices, increased by 2/10 month over month, softer than the expectations of 3/10. Year over year, core PPI increased 3/10 to 4. 6, agreeing with estimates. So you would think inflation's Our inflation number's 5. 4. That's pretty high. Mhm. You know, it's no 2%. It's ain't no 2%. But I mean, we got all this stuff. We got I mean the oil at 100.

That's what's killing everything. You know, um they were saying the record over Labor Day was $4. 15 for a national average of gas. I'm like, where is that? I want to go fill up. Cuz and uh diesel hit a record of $5. 94. I'm like, where's that at? Because I have seen $7 and something down the streets of McHenry. Um I I I ferment there. I thought we were back in the '80s or the '70s, no gas. Yeah. You know, no gas and you had to you had to use your two license plates you had. One was an even number, one was an odd number. Yeah, so you would just swap. Exactly. I'm taking this car in today. There were no There were no readers back then to read your license plate knowing that you stole somebody else's license plate.

Yes, simpler days, simple, simple days. Um so what else What were we talking about just a little bit earlier before we went on? Uh I think you already covered it. I was talking Well, I was talking about clients and and you know Oh, I was talking about the fact Yeah, I had a VA appraisal come in in less than 24 hours yesterday. And the question is, what does that tell you? That tells you that it is slow out there. Yeah. I got an appraisal. I got it done now. I get paid now. I get $750 now. I don't have to split it with the AMC and give them 150 to 200 bucks. I get it all. Yeah. Yeah, that's the difference. Cuz I mean those AMC appraisals are like five something, six something, 685. And they have to share 150 to that.

They have to share a management fee, whatever it is, depending on which which one it is. Yeah. Yeah, Frank Dodd, it didn't fix anything. It was already broken. Yeah, did it made made people more uh more money and controlling the appraisals even more. It's It's the same thing they always do. Like I said, it didn't fix anything. All right, do we have So tomorrow's Friday. Yes, it is. Oh, how CPI out tomorrow. Um CPI and That was it, right? That was our big one for tomorrow. That is the big one for tomorrow. That's consumer how it's going to affect the consumer. Yes. Good. The question's going to be what sales going to happen with, you know, with rates going up, getting closer to seven. And the question is uh I don't know.

We were eight and a half eight and eight point something and we were doing rates. I mean we were closing transactions. Yeah. People still got to buy. Just not a lot of them. Yeah. Well, the question's going to be uh I don't I thought we were going to be outside of this. This is like abusive behavior. This is getting old. Way, way old. Isn't it? I mean, it really is. I mean, we've been talking about I mean, we've been in this war for six months and that's where the rates went up from. Prior to that, it was because oil prices Say, oh, sounds like oil prices again. Um because of the Strait of Hormuz. So what are we going to do? I don't know. I think I'm just going to look at this pretty, pretty picture and think everything is fine.

I'm going to go on vacation for two weeks. Let me know when it happens. Yeah. That actually wouldn't be a bad thing to do. And that's what people don't understand. You need to save money for times like this, but it's been times like this for a couple years for some people. And some Yeah, hard to save when the the price of life is smaller. And some agents haven't made any money this year and they and they didn't make any money last year because, you know, unless you're working full-time in it or whatever, how I've been doing it long enough. Yeah. What was the number we heard last last month in August? Uh 73 or 74% of all agents in the in the US still not close their first transaction for the year?

Correct. That's slim pickings. Yeah. I I I just finally closed my first one for the year. Oh yeah, me too. No, I couldn't imagine that. I mean, I'm not setting records like I did, you know, before, but I'm I'm eating and I'm paying my bills and I'm doing I have money to do other stuff that I do. Um AI stuff and other stuff. AI? AI. AI. All right, done for the day. It's a short day, short numbers. It'll make my people cutting this stuff up so much faster. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow. Bye. Where did that thing go? Bye kids. I don't know. What was it?