Buy Now or Wait? Real Estate Jerky Looks at the Long-Term Numbers

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with Mike Kelly, Real Estate Jerky Daily. And today is September 11th. It is. 25 years ago. Yeah, what's Mom doing? Is he doing stupid shit? I have no idea. I don't really care about him. I'm not in New York. I'm here in California. I got enough of my own issues in California. Yeah. You're here. Well, totally. Uh, you know, you got gas prices, all the stuff going up. And you know, it's not all from the war, but you know, oil oil's still I think it's Thursday went up to $102. 48. Brent closed at like 107. Ouch. Yeah. Is that like But they backed off a little bit. Some of the highest it's been? Did it get over that before? Yeah, when Obama was in, I think it was $120 a barrel.

Yeah. But he cut the budget supposedly, so it was okay. Oh. Yeah, whatever. Semantics. Yeah. Cuz when you increase taxes, you get more money in. All right, so they're still dealing with that fun stuff, but it's not, you know, it's September 11th. I remember 25 I was just saying 25 years ago I didn't even know Marsha. Wow. Three years later I would know her. Yeah, I knew her I knew I didn't know Marsha. I knew my wife cuz she just got back from working at United and it was supposed to be her day off and I walked in and I said as I turned on the news, I said, you're going to have an interesting day today at work. And she goes, I'm not working today. Yeah, you are. Right about then the phone rang.

Had to go in. She wound up working the the first class cabin in a plane taking 68 critical response team FBI agents back to DC. Um, she called me and said, I'm going to DC. Is that okay? Well, you you didn't ask me. You just said you're going. It's probably the safest flight in the sky today. Well. You don't have a choice. All right. Um, you want to go first? Do your numbers? Yeah, I'll go first. Yeah, do the number stuff. 853 listings in Stanislaus County. What were we at yesterday? 801? We just breached the 800 barrier. And you and I talked about that yesterday where we're thinking You're going to see more listings, less pending, and less closed cuz we're at 75. I think we're what? 70 or And more price reductions.

We're going to see more and more price reductions. Not not 2008 price reductions. No, no, no, no, no. Just some simple uh adjustments to make sure the market remembers you're there. Yeah. Well, I think it's going to get better after the primary. Yeah. 75 closed transactions for the first 11 days of September. Wow. What kind of pace would that be if there's uh 30 days in September? 31. We're a third of the month down. A third of the month. So 3 * 75 would be 150. That'd be horrible. Horrible. 75 75 and 75 is 150. Add another 75. That 75 is 225. Yeah, there you go. So kind of close to what we just did. Yeah. Which was I think we did in the 250s, didn't we? Oh, well, I'm just said close. I didn't say exactly.

Close, exactly. I know. I was prices right on that one. Yeah. Uh, and Do you want to I forgot to close that other one out. Um, Do you want to know the state stuff? Sure. For the week ending September 5th Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to drop down for Those are both down 7. 4 and 7. 5% in 576 listings per day, down 10. 3%. And we're at the I think the nation you said we were at like 42% of homes are being reduced and for the state we're at 41. 3% of all listings are being reduced before they sell. And our average our median days on the market are 28 staying the same from the week before. How exciting is that? So what does that mean? It just means that things are selling fairly quickly if they're priced correctly or they've been reduced.

Are they part of the 41. 3% that's been reduced? Well, it used to be so goes California and then goes the nation. It seems like there goes the nation and so goes California. It's the other way now. It's goes California, yeah. Yeah, um, and we had inflation come out today and the market was expecting hot hot hot inflation. Yeah. It got hot but not super hot. Yeah, and so that's why we're having kind of a rally. Rally is a is a loose term right now. We're one basis point down on the 10-year at 4. 93 and the rates are better by three basis points. Woohoo, rally. Warm down. Wow. And the Dow doesn't look like it's suffering at all right now today. No, it's 52 the market is doing really well. There's people making money out there.

AI is doing well. Other companies are doing well. The overall market for business is doing well. It's the consumer who is hurting. The paychecks aren't going the way they should be going. So the consumer price index, which measures inflation on the consumer level, increased by 4/10 of a over month over month and remained at 3. 4% year over year. That's all in line with expectations. The core CPI rate, which strips out food and energy prices, increased by 3/10 of a percent in August above the estimates of 2/10 and decreased 1/10 to 2. 4% year over year in line with expectations. So it was only a little bit hotter. The big thing that was let me go back into that article I was reading earlier. Fed's got to hike.

That's the title. It's like no they That's what they're thinking? That's what the that's what that article's thinking. Yeah, so the biggest part right now is I where is it? Oil prices had an impact impact on this whole consumer price thing. Gasoline rose 4% during the month and is up 27% year over year. The core rate, which strips out the food and energy, we talked about that. Uh, I just thought how expensive this is all because of oil. Mhm. All because of the straight or moose. All because of the Iran. And I heard yesterday or the day before, I don't know if I said it on here, but that they're thinking that the Iran will do something meaning like get not give in. What are you drinking Premier Protein?

What are you Is that ensure, old man? Protein, yeah. It's pretty much. Yeah, ensure that I'm going to make it through the rest of the day. Um, anyway, that they'll give in after the uh election. Yeah, that's what you're saying yesterday. Cuz they cuz they yeah cuz they won't hold on any longer for two more years only until the the primary. I was like that's I could see that. They're thinking that they can hold on and hold on and force us to do something. Trump's like I'm going to if I'm going to lose it, I'm going to lose it. There's nothing I can do about it. Normally you'd lose it anyway. The incoming president loses the house and the senate or at least one of them. Right. Right. Well, you know, not everybody's very brilliant.

All right, so next week we have ADP weekly employment on Tuesday, like always. Yeah. Wednesday mortgage application, like always. And uh retail sales, National Association of Home Building Housing Market Index. I guarantee that's going to be like 37, 36. Yeah. Um, we're going to we're going to have a fed decision cuz they're going to meet next week to see, hey, are we going to raise rates? You think so? Yeah. Floundering. Um, I don't think they are because they say what if they raise rates, it won't fix the oil problem. No. Thursday jobless claims, pending home sales, and housing starts and permits. I think those will probably both be a little low. But we need housing and people going, no we don't.

We got 800 and some listings and they're not closing. Uh, no, they're closing. Yeah, there's they're closing. They're closing. I finally got rid of our land yesterday. Oh, it closed. Okay. Well, congratulations. Yeah. Nice. No more do you have to go up there and rake and do stuff. No, that's our cabin. I never raked the land. I know. What if it burned? Baby burn. Yeah. Not my problem. I don't live there. No, it was a great idea for Marsha and she did all the stuff she wanted to but then it just the pandemic killed it. And Marsha's like, could you imagine if we built it and then your industry went the way it did and everything else after that we possibly could have we would have sold both of the properties, put that money in there and we could have lost it.

You know what I mean? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, thanks happen for a reason. It's it's it's a good thing it happened the way it did. Yes. And we'll have some losses to offset into our profit of the cabin when we sell that eventually. Good. Good. We need those losses. Well, a friend of ours was talking about whether he should sell his uh Tennessee properties, especially the one he just took back from that other person. Yeah. Oh. And I'm like talk to your accountant. Yeah. Don't make it cuz you might need that couple hundred buck write off a month, you know. You don't know. Go talk. Don't just do it cuz you you don't want it because it's a bad taste. Make smart decisions. All right, there was something that somebody was saying that 61% of the time it's it makes more sense to buy a home.

61 than what? Buying now 160 will win 61% of the time. So that was uh somebody put out a study um every year from 2000 to 2022 and asked one question, buy now or wait two years? Buy at whatever the market actually did. Buying now won 61% of the time. Those uh 2006 from 2000 to 2006 we had an increase and then we had a major decrease from 2008 through 2012 for most places. Right. And then so I mean in 2022 so 2021 and 22 we went up 61%. This is a skewed article. Yeah, they usually are. Um, they have an idea. They they look for the the uh numbers to make it kind of work but it's really forced out. Uh, I'm not talking about Democrats. I'm talking about this thing over here. No, I know you're talking about that article.

Here's the years that won everything was 2004 2016 2020 and 2022. Yeah. Ah, shocking. Well. The years that waiting won was 2007 through 2010. Oh, really? Yeah. Yeah, I can see that. Short sale city. Yeah. Well, and again, what's that tell you? Real estate is long-term game, not short-term game. It is. It always has been. And people think that, you know, if you buy a house and in four years it's going to go up. Yeah, from if you bought it in 2020 or 20 or 2019 Right. but not on a normal. It'll go up normal appreciation, which is usually about five, you know, 3 to 5%. Normal. I agree. Agree, agree. Um, you know, and some people are lucky to buy in uh like you said where it went up 61% in 22 through 24 basically, 23.

Um, and then sell and well, okay, great, fantastic. You still got to replace it and you're paying 61% more for the replacement property than you would have earlier. Just stick around. Stick around, relax. Are we going away? Yeah, we're going away. All right, we'll go. I got to forward this email to somebody. I can tell you're working. No, I was just something that popped up. Going to have our roof done and we got to pay for the, you know, get money down, the whole earnest money deposit. Yep. Purchase of the supplies. Uh, not that much. Yeah. Yeah. Got if it was that cheap for purchasing supplies, I'll do it myself. Yeah, you'd be signing the roof of her? I would never do a roof and I would never do this roof.

This roof is like this. Yeah. It's not like this. It's like this. I was up there one time and swore I'd never get back up there. Yeah, I I helped my brother-in-law reroof a house one one weekend and oh my god, I'd never do it again. No, my legs would not my knees would not put up with it. Thank god I was like 30 years younger but still. All right, make hey, it's uh much cooler today. It's going to be getting cooler and cooler and guess what? Then it's going to get hot again. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Oops, where did everybody go? And don't forget 9/11. Yeah, that's see my shirt. Never forget. Yep, yep. I wear it one day a year. So many people in New York have What? Forgot. Forgot. No, they haven't.

It's there. It's just some people just don't care. Yep. All right, make it a great day. We'll talk to you on tomorrow on the radio and then on Monday. Make it a great day. Monday. Yeah. All right, bye. Bye, kids.