Fed Decision Day Brings Rate Relief as Builder Confidence Drops

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with my Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. And it's a day. It's going to be a muffin day. I don't know what that is. I don't know what it is either, but it just it felt good when I said it. Well, I don't know where that ever came from. Well, they need to get rid of it wherever it's at. Hey, I just made it up. So nobody else will be repeating that unless they like what I say. I don't think they will. Well, they might. You're so negative. God. No, I'm just being honest. That's not negative. Honesty. Isn't that a um A good policy. Yes, it is. Billy Joel song. I have no idea because that is not somebody I would listen to. Oh, I did. I'm sure you did. I'm a generation older than you.

skipping down the tracks like on Joe Dirt. And you know what I'm talking about. Yeah, I do. I didn't do no Yes, hotter than hell in here. Huh? It's hotter than hell in here. Oh. I'm starting to get moist. All right, you ready? What you got? No, go. Yep, you ready? I got this. Watch this. Are you ready? Look Look, you're not grainy today. Well, I'll try to be later. Look at those numbers. What do we go through? 127. Woohoo! Through the roof. And I think we're up by 12 from yesterday or 11. Good thing cuz we're like 16 days into the month. Yeah, but listings um 357. At least we're staying in the 350s. Pending sales, but those closed sales 127. I We were in the 120s yesterday. So a few more closings.

Day by day we'll inch forward to maybe the 200s by the end of September. Today's September 16th. A birthday buddy of mine is celebrating his 12th um anniversary of maybe his 30th. I don't know. 12th. Anyway, uh birthdays are amazing. It's amazing how many friends I have who have birthdays in the September month. You're trying to be funny. You're trying to be funny there. Oh, really? Yeah, nine months earlier was what? Cold? January. Cold. Let's cuddle by the fire, honey. Okay. So what do you got today? Oh, I'm sorry. I was reading the the breaking news on AI Jerky. Oh, no. What happened? Uh investors recently approached OpenAI with a proposal to invest at a 1. 2 trillion valuation, but OpenAI believes its value should be 1.

5 trillion. 1. 5? Yes, yes. Wow. Yeah. So um I you know I created aijerky. com, right? Yep. And it's a service where you it's free. You can get in all the breaking AI news that you want. Ooh. Yeah. So just go to aijerky. com. We do it here. You rely on me to tell you. I just rely on you to tell me. Yeah, I got tired of doing that with Brian. Don't tell me that stuff, Brian. I want to know before you. All right, so we're waiting on the Fed. Fed's coming out today at 2:00 p. m. Eastern, 11:00 a. m. here. Uh rates have rallied a little bit today. We've got 28 basis points better in rates. The 10-year sitting at 4. 95. The bond market is down by $42. 50. Wow. Uh we had What did we have come out? We had National Association of Housing Builders Housing Market Index, and it decreased three points from last month's figure of What do you think it was last month?

Do you remember? 3. 79. No, that remember they're at 50 remember 50 is supposedly, yeah. 3. 7. Yeah, it was 36 something, wasn't it? 35, that's correct. Now it's down to 32 in September. Current sales decreased by four points to 35. Sales expectations decreased by six points to 37. Buyer traffic was unchanged at 23. That's going the wrong direction. Yeah, so they're really loving life at the builders. Hey, come on in. We'll give you a bunch of money. Yeah. No, they're not. Oh my gosh. Yeah, so what people don't understand about the builders number is they want that at 50 and above to actually really be building homes. So when people say, there's a lot of houses going on. Uh no, there's not. When you see a track of 200 when we are five almost 5 million short nationwide and probably 2 million of that in California, we're short.

It's not even a drip in the bucket. No, we're so short. Uh I feel like my wife. Short people got She ain't that short, but she's short enough. All right, the other we have uh retail sales came out today. That increased by 1. 2% in August, which was better than they expected. 8/10 of a percent increase. Yeah. Um last month's figure was revised higher from a -6/10 to a -5/10. The control group which strips out the auto gas and building materials is still increased by 1. 4% and was above the expectations of 4/10. So it's about 1% higher than they thought. Long story short, that just means people are buying stuff. I don't know where they're getting the money from, but they're still buying. And we're And it's it's hard because if you have a diesel vehicle and you're paying eight bucks a gallon, that's hard to you can't I, you know, I can't even fill up my tank anymore.

I haven't actually think back. I haven't been able to fill up my tank since Biden took office. and then left office. And then still couldn't fill it up even though it got better. But prior to Biden being in office, I could fill up my 31-gallon tank every time and it would not shut it off. But now Yeah, there's a couple stations I can't fill mine up at, but and I got a 36-gallon tank. But it's gas. Yeah, so I you're a little grainy but not super grainy. Yeah, it's just me. No, I just weird. I replaced the network thing, replaced a bunch of stuff, and I don't know what it is. It seems fine on this side. It's probably just mine. It's your negative personality. My negative personality because You look good on screen.

All right, where was I at? All right, so we also had um Mortgage Banker Association released their mortgage data for last week. And that would be 9/12 showing that overall application volume What do you think? Uh application volume decreased. Correctamundo. Uh by 12%. No, 4. 1%. You failed. The application to purchase a home were down 1% for the week and down 19% year over year. Refinances decreased by 9% from previous weeks and up And they were 65% lower than a year ago. That if if they get to 100% lower than a year ago, is that like half of them? I think so. Or is that like It's 100% all of them. None of them. There's no refinances. all of them. There's no more. Is that over? So those are our lovely numbers for today, which tells you it's a good time to buy.

It is a great time to buy. In fact, I just um got a pretty good contract on a piece of property up in Jackson. Put it in escrow this morning. And uh I think it was a pretty good offer. And the and the buyer is getting some credits. Um place needs a little bit of work. It the the realtor is like, what do you mean negotiating the credits up front? I that's about all you're getting. Oh, they want more in case they find something. Oh, you know they're going to find something. Oh, we need more credits. Nope, nope, nope, nope. Nope, get that done in two weeks so we can go back on the market. There's still a lot of activity on the property. So Well, there's you know if things are priced right, I mean lower because that's what people are buying, the lower priced homes.

Yeah, I finally got an offer. Another this is my second offer on um Okshire. Okay. Is it better than the first offer? And No, no, no. The first offer was 410 and No, I'm talking about current first offer. So I'm not forget the one that went away along. I'm talking about recent current. Yeah, the recent current offer. Yeah, because medical reason. This is the only recent current offer. Oh, I thought this was I thought you got another one. You can't keep bringing up I got an offer finally when you already talked about it two days ago. No, I'm just saying I got an offer. I say I'm expecting an offer. You you said the numbers to me. Well, this one came in lower than I wanted it to. Oh, plus 3%. It's a Yeah, I'll fix things.

Huh? I will fix things. I'm countering today. Oh. Yeah, you look good on Instagram. I mean the um seller's going to wind up with zero zero walking away. Seller doesn't care because he just walked away. And he's currently deployed, I think. Well, if he is, then he needs to tell his lender. I will tell him that today. Have his wife tell his wife to tell the lender. Yep. Yeah. Um we get uh Did we get existing home sales last week? Yeah, we did. Okay. Yeah. All this all this is for the show today. Uh Newsom signing 14-day left governor has until September 30th to sign or veto everything the legislature sent him. He signed a batch Monday including AB 2766 on student housing for foster. Come on, let'll we do some real stuff.

Right. Yeah. Like uh you know the the big stuff. We need to get rid of all this extra stuff we pay for in California cuz it's getting expensive. Well, the fact that they still think the high-speed rail is going to actually be built is a farce. And whoever's making all the money on the on the fraud on the back end of that thing or the side ends or whatever, um you know, just get caught. Did you see that the uh Concord Farms Duck Club just hit the market? No. I thought you're an agent. I am an agent. It's 400 acres of open space on Vansickle Island in Suncun Bay. Oh, see, you know, I don't really practice real estate there. Solano County. And I I don't think it's it's I don't duck hunt and it's not in my MLS.

And you don't duck hunt? This is a very rare situation that usually these things don't come up. Uh this is again a duck duck club, historic private, the kind of property that trades once in a generation, usually never sees the MLS. Wow. Why do we care? Because they're going to Someone's going to buy it and build homes. Build houses. And no more duck eggs and no more No more hunting. You're going to have hunting going through your backyard. Quack quack quack quack. Did you have have you You know what I don't understand is we got the Delta, we have the Stanislaus River, and there's not really anything on those. As far as properties Like nice homes, yeah, like overlooking it, you know, like a nice little room house or whatever.

The there there's things on River Road that back up the you know not just River Road but other things that you're like it just we looked at there's such value that you could have on property over by a late a stream or a river or whatever and we don't use utilize that. It's farmland. It's you have the uh junkyard here their office series right by it. Yeah, there's some rivers and streams and stuff like that that are governed by the Army Corps of Engineers that allow you to do no building, no no um vegetation removal, nothing to the property whatsoever. You may have ownership all the way down to the middle of the river with riparian rights, but the Army Corps of Engineers says, nope, you can't even build a boat dock.

So um it just depends. It depends on where you are. But the River Road in either series Modesto or Escalon/Modesto, uh they build on those. So I know, but I'm just saying there really is. I mean they should make some changes to give those back, you know, make some so people can build some nice homes and then you have nice views of river or something. It would be sweet. It would be very very nice. I mean you have to have it up on its stilts like they do off of what's that one island series? Is that River Road? River Road, yeah. And then you would have to answer that um that earthquake questionnaire differently. Although if you built it in 2002 or or 26 27 um it's only pre-1961 so that you have to answer the earthquake questionnaire.

Oh, because all the new stuff has all the new regulations. 90% of agents don't know that. I get a earthquake questionnaire filled out by their seller for a home that was built in 23. I'm like, what are you even doing? We're not signing this. All right. All right, that's all I have for today. I think that's all I got today. I felt like Pentagon reveals secret weapons are in space. Did you know that we have weapons in space? Oh. I thought Ronald Reagan did that. That was Star Wars. Yeah, I I watched that movie. Uh have you seen the Ronald Reagan movie? No, no. The recent one. It's actually was okay. Wasn't wasn't Who was the actor that portrayed him? Um I don't know his name. I saw a couple clips and I thought, gosh, he's doing a pretty good job.

Yeah, he's doing good, but he didn't super look like the guy cuz I remember what Ronald Reagan looked like, but I mean he you know it was it was a good movie this one. The the one that's about Gorbachev where he's you know signing the treaty and all the stuff they wanted to do that you know downgrade the all of us get rid of the weapons. It was a yeah, it was a decent movie. Bring down the war the wall. All right, let's call it a day. There's one of our biggest fans. All right, let's call it a day. All right everybody. Get a great day and thank you for being here. We appreciate you and if there's anything you need just reach out. Thanks. Do it, do it. Bye. Bye.