Housing Starts Drop While Building Permits Point to Future Supply

Yep, right there. Good morning, everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with Mike Kelly. He's got a solid shirt on today. Yep. Solid color. You know, I went back and looked at our podcast yesterday and I see what you were seeing. I don't see it on this side, but I see what you were seeing. And I was um Sparkly. I was like a alien. I was like your cup, your coffee cup yesterday. Not just like you're like I can't what was it? Uh it wasn't Stripes, but it was where they um they meet the Oh god, what movie? One of these days I'll figure that movie out. I haven't seen that movie in so long. It was with uh Chevy Chase and somebody else and they were supposedly spies. Spies like us? Spies like us. Yeah. And Goldie Hawn, right?

I don't remember. It was too long ago. See, I knew I'd come back to me useless. Did you have any new numbers today? Today is Tuesday. I've got I've got some state numbers cuz uh yesterday I checked they were still uh uploading August 8th's uh week ending and this CAR finally uploaded the 15th. So um we're we're kind of up to date. Oh, the numbers are in. Uh kind of abysmal. 458 closed sales per day um for the state of California, down 4%. 479 pending sales per day for California, 13. 8% negative. And 611 listings per day, that's 10. 7%. But we did decrease by one day on the 26 days median days on the market. We um improved. We're on the mar uh we're more We have more properties being um reduced to be able to get them sold, 40.

5%. I think yesterday you talked about almost 50% close to 50%. Yeah, that's pretty close. 41. something. Yeah. In my math. Um And we're 40. 5, so we're pretty close to the nationwide. Exactly. So And it's not even on our side. So those are the facts, Jack. Yeah. And that's going to get worse. Nationwide anyway. Fans told to cover XX-XY shirts at WNBA game. Yeah, I saw I read that yesterday and but it's okay for the coach to say uh trans kids are still kids. And you know They are they are kids. Yeah. But that has nothing to do with anything. They are kids. No. Um it's all about being fair. It's funny how everybody wants to take stuff away from women. Uh not me. I want to give them stuff. Anyway, uh let's see where we at today.

Let me get rid of that. Nasdaq's down 342. I'll let you know when Dow comes up. Oh, Dow was down also. Uh it just went away. But anyway, bonds, let's see, the 10-year sitting at 4. 72. Ouch. That is ugly. Yeah. Uh what else? 4. 72. What was it yesterday? Was Yeah. 4. 70 something. Yeah. Okay. So it's not improving. No, it's not improving. It's flat right now. Uh anyway, who cares? Dow We know Dow's down. Uh the so rates are only worse by one basis point. Thank goodness it's not that much worse. That's uh incredible actually. Yeah. And so what came out today was ADP Oh, we'll do a different one. Pending home sales. That's just quicker. Pending home sales came out today, which measures signed contract on existing homes, decreased by 2.

3% in July, worse than expectations of a 0. 3% gain, 3/10 of a percent gain, sorry. June figures was revised higher from a loss of 5. 4% to a loss of 4. 8%. Year over year pending home sales were down 2. 2%, trending lower than the 3/10 decline reported in the previous month. Pretty ugly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of what we're seeing. I actually listened to you. Housing starts. Here's where it's unique. I have a whole bunch over here, but this is just easier. Housing starts for July were reported at a 1. 239 million annualized pace, down 176,000 from the previous month's report, revised report of 1. 415 million. Wow. Housing permits, which are a good indicator of future starts, increased by 1.

443 million units, up 69,000 from the previous month's figure of 1. 374. There's more information I wanted to get into that cuz it talked about how long it's Let's see here. Uh where did it go? It's like the worst it's been in a Oh yeah, so active listings are at 1. 1 million, which is lower than the two 2019 pre-pandemic figures of 1. 2 million. Similarly, the existing home supply is 400,000 lower than in 2019. In certain regions like Northeast, for example, disparity is even greater. Disparity is even greater and the supply today is more than 50% lower than pre-pandemic. Wow. Yeah. Markets are Markets where supply is much tighter is resulting in higher rates of appreciation in California cuz they haven't built anything.

Builders have clearly reached to higher rates and less demand, but if So this is all about what we talked about yesterday, the the National Association of Home Builders Right. that they have not The confidence is so weak they're not really building anything. They're building a few things like we talked about. Just enough to keep their people busy so they don't lose them. Right. Um so ADP weekly employment data came out also. Uh the jobs data is continued to be soft. Uh ADP reported on average there were nine This is like the lowest I've seen. 9,500 jobs created per week over the previous four weeks, which is on pace for a monthly job total of 41,000. That's pretty low. Yeah. For the past few months there's been a consistent decline in weekly employment data with the last month's reading from ADP and BLS being very weak.

So uh they think the They were market showed a crack because of after the World Cup left. They had to hire so many people for the World Cup. That's why the numbers were stronger. That's low. Hospitality. Yeah, now they had to let them go. Yeah, cuz guess what? You don't have the whole Who was it? Was it the Belgians or the Scots that came in and drink all the beer? Scots. Wasn't Belgians. Scots. It was the Scots that came in and drink it drink um Yeah. Cuz cuz your your people had drank it somewhere else. Yeah. Yeah. Um that's incredible. I I love that story. Yeah. Well, if you loved it so much, why didn't you remember it? Well, you know, cuz I'm old. I'm 65, you know. Okay. First thing to go is Crude is up to 91.

And I can't remember the second thing. Um to 91? Yeah. Well, you said the ceasefire ended yesterday. Yeah, whatever. Yeah. We didn't really cease fire. These were just retaliatory strikes. The 60-day memorandum signed in June expired on Monday. That's what that was. And the president said he's not interested in extending it at all. Yeah. Yeah. Well, this is going to get worse before it gets better. We'll just have to understand that. Uh WTI is over 85 also, so that stuff's starting to go up again. WTI, World Trade No, that's the crude the other crude. Oh, the other crude. Yeah. So let's see. Rates, you know, rates are saying they're anywhere from 6. 53 to 6. 7 whatever. Still not horrible. No, they're not bad.

It could be a lot worse. They're they're a little bit worse than last year. Yeah. And people were still buying last year. And the ones who are very very smart are buying this year. Yeah, because you're even getting because people are really hurting. Now what I want to talk about is be careful of marketing on Instagram and other places like Facebook. Yeah. If there is supposedly an exclusive program for California public employees or for veterans or for first responders that you are going to get a reduced this or that, it's probably a marketing thing from a lender trying to just get you in and it's not some program that's out there. I had a client of mine who is buying a house and they're going FHA and they go they want to know about CalHFA.

I said, well, if you you're not going to like the rate and you know cuz he's They have a gift. I said, the fact that you have a gift, that is why we're not looking at any of these programs. And they're like, well, my I don't know if his dad told him about this thing or whatever. Then he sends me a copy of what it is and it's easy to find out. It's some broker Yeah, some broker has this program and they're trying to get everybody to click on it and then you run through their their CRM and they're trying to get you in and there's not a program. There was a program for heroes about two years ago that was all over Facebook. Oh, I remember that. Yeah. And it was not a real program. It was just to get people in to say, yes, I can I'll do this for you.

I'll get a rate, you know, I'll give you 50% lower. Well, it was really 50 basis points lower. It really wasn't anything they were doing. They were just offering a discount, but it really wasn't a discount because they were charging more than they needed to charge to give you that discount. So they're they're even and uh it was probably just an FHA loan. Yeah. Well, I'm just saying this, be careful out there. There's people who are just It's And I told the guy, it's it's not a program, it's just great marketing to get people cuz there How many people are clicking on this? No spam, we promise. Available to eligible employees of California Public Agency. Well, I'm not one of them. That's okay. I'll get you into something.

You know, that's how they do it. Yeah, it's Yeah. Yeah, exactly. It's just to get you to click and come in and then they get you in their little CRM and eventually you buy from them. But yeah, there's You know, Tesla has a program where you get 500 bucks off if you're a first responder or military or whatever. Well, you know what? I'll do the same thing. I don't care. Just call me Tesla. Yeah. I I'm just saying just be careful if if it's not direct If if it's a program for California public employees, it would be from your union or whatever, your people your school would be the one doing it. Yeah. They'd probably even make a flyer and post it in the flyer area. I mean, it's just like some of these places are like offering it and you know the the credit union's offering a a better deal, but then they push it to somebody else to do the loan.

Mhm. That makes no sense at all. Right. Don't Yeah. Just don't do it. But you click if you want to. Yeah, do what you want. I know your grandson's in prison and he needs about $4,000 to get bailed out. Wait, you don't have a grandson. Well, is that what is that what you were told? That was going around for a long time and uh sadly older people like me were falling for it. I didn't fall for it, but Somebody was falling for a gold scam a while back. Yeah. They somehow bring gold in and this one lady lost $250,000 of her gold. Yeah? Oh, jeez. Yep. Don't pick up the phone. Don't do anything. Did she Did she scream Eureka? Yeah. There's gold in them thar hills. Well, there's not gold in where she has.

She had to get rid of her gold. Yeah, she gave it away. No. No longer. Well. Give it away, give it away, give it away now. Great song. All right, that's all I have for today. That's all I got too. I was so happy that they updated it. Well, that's what you're supposed to do local all every day and that every day just so people know that we're actually things are happening. They are happening. Yes. Not great, but they're happening. All right, let's go. You guys all have a fantastic Tuesday. Enjoy yourself. Put some things in escrow. I've got some listings. Just look them up, put them in. Put them in. Happy. All right, talk to you later. Thank you. We'll be back tomorrow. All right, make it a great day.

Bye. Where's that end?