

REAL ESTATE JERKY DAILY
Manhattan Rent Prices Show Why Homeownership Still Matters
Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover jobless claims, wholesale inflation, mortgage pricing, Treasury yields, AI tools in real estate, rental affordability, Manhattan rents, land pricing, and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, continuing claims moved lower to 1.777 million, and mortgage pricing improved by about 11 basis points. The 10-year Treasury eased near 4.64. Ed and Mike also discuss PPI coming in softer than expected, whether real estate professionals should build or buy AI tools, why rent remains expensive, and why overpricing land can cost sellers weeks of market time. A fast Real Estate Jerky Daily mark
Read along
Written out automatically from the audio, about 2,453 words. It is close but not perfect, so the recording is the record.
Read the transcript
50/50 chance. My background's all messed up today. Good morning, everybody. I'm Ed Parco here with Mike Kelly, Real Estate Jerky Daily. It's me again. And my regular camera is acting up. I slapped it a few times. Well, actually, this camera gives you that that really smooth skin look. You don't look like an old guy. You look like a young guy. Yeah, whatever. Nice try. What's going on with you today? Nothing. Rotary was Holy shit. Where'd you go? Um Rotary, the uh guy from Modesto Roadsters was scheduled to talk and sadly And that's Roadsters. Is that the baseball team? Yeah, baseball team. Used to be the Nuts, used to be the A's. Wasn't it like something else stupid? They were going to name it like the Cruiser or Oh, they were going to name it the Cruisers or something like that.
Yeah. They all uh agreed on the Roadsters. Um He fell ill, sadly. So we had no He's going to be okay, isn't he? Yeah, he's going to be okay. We had no guest speaker, so Ron and um and Gary Badro kind of filled in the space along with Craig. About what? You know, they just had some things to say. Oh, like Craig You mean like Craig's running for governor? No, I'm not. No, I'm not. Yeah, I know. Yeah, whatever. They're sucking you in, man. I think he's getting really tired of me every morning saying, "Good morning, governor. " He's like, "I'm getting worn down. " I said, "Yeah, you will. " Um You know, we're talking about we're bringing back the uh youth exchange. So um that's going to be a thing with Modesto Sunrise Rotary again.
Was it gone? It left during the uh the uh pandemic, uh Fauci's pandemic. Um I guess that was Fauci and Bill Gates, right? Well, it's Fauci and Bill Gates and the Democratic Party. Yeah, we'll move on. Yeah, we can have mail-in ballots because we have to be 6 ft apart. Yeah, whatever. I still see those arrows places. I know. Uh someone posted Oh, um when we were able to show properties, we were still considered integral to society, realtors were, so we could show properties, but we had to we had to pee on every listing and that was a pre-entry advisory disclosure. Oh, I guess that's pretty rude everybody had to pee on the listing. Yeah. And and then we had to we had to post in the windows of your listing, you know, the you got to be 6 ft apart.
We're Actually, the agents were responsible for decontaminating the entire house after they show it, meaning walk through with a wipe. Yeah, we didn't do that. A wipe. Well, you just told everybody don't touch anything. Don't touch anything. Don't touch that counter. Yeah. Don't lean on anything. Don't spit on the floor or spit in the wind. Yeah. Anyway, All right, what we got today? So Dow is now only down 90, 87. It's dropping. It's recoil It's recoiled. It's it's moving. It's one way or another. Uh rates are better by 11 basis points this morning and the 10-year is down about four basis points at 4. 6427. It's like still can't believe we're that high, you know, compared to where we were a long time ago.
Yeah. Yeah. So we only had a couple things of news today. Uh was initial jobless claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment for the first time. It feels like I've said that many, many times. Every Thursday. You have. Uh let's see, except for the two that I wasn't there. Uh for the first time was reported at 209,000 claims for the week. That was last week. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week of figure of 200,000 and was above expectations of 202,000. Continuing claims decreased of 1. 777 million from the previous week revised figure of 1. 799 million. That just means they fell off the rolls. Uh doesn't mean that they got a job. It means that they've been doing Good morning, Dylan.
Dylan. Dylan. Yes. Yeah, move on. Yeah. Uh Producer Price Index also came in today. Yesterday was Consumer Price Index. Usually it's a flip. We usually have producer first and then consumer second, but hey, what are you going to do? They're messing with us. Which measures wholesale inflation. This is what people who are making things, their inflation, uh was reported for March. That's always really far behind because we're in like August. August. March. March. Yeah, exactly. The headline figure was flat month over month, softer than expectations of two-tenths gain and the year-over-year basis PPI decreased by eight-tenths to 4. 7% lower than the 4. 9 estimate. Core PPI with strips out food and energy prices increased by two-tenths month over month, softer than the expectations of three-tenths.
Year-over-year core PPI decreased five-tenths to 4. 2% matching the estimate. So pretty much one came in better, one came in as how they expected. But I got to check that that doesn't sound right. That would be March numbers. Yeah, that's a long time ago. It was July. I don't know how March got in there. Yeah, okay. Well, that's closer. Only off by a month. Yeah, well, that's whoever, you know, that was whoever put it in two different places wrote kept a March part, yeah, copy and paste. Which is usual, right? Ah, so that's copy and paste. Oh, forgot to change that. Yeah, well, at least the numbers were correct. So I was like, that doesn't sound right. It's not that usually that far behind. It's usually a month.
So PPI is Producer Price Index. Up up? It's no, it's in line with expectations. Okay. One was better and then the other one was the core year-over-year was in line. One was worse. Gotcha. Again, the core rate is when they take out all the volatile stuff like energy prices, gas, food, you know, because they got to feed the people they produce. Everything. Yeah. You got to feed the people their production. And that's um Does that include farming? Probably. Yeah, I would think so. Uh real estate leaders, way buying versus building AI tools. Whether you build your own or buy your own. Or buy your own. Oh, gotcha. And for most people, it would be better just to buy your own cuz it's faster. Was it heavy?
No, it just it's faster. That's faster to buy your own. Yeah, because then you don't have to create. But if you want your own personal for just you, go build it. And then cuz that's like the um the virtual assistants I use, they had this other service we were using, then they built their own because you can tell they built their own and one, it doesn't cost them anything a month. I built my own uh software for processing. It's tied to my website, uh which is not done with anybody else out there. And so that was saves me 150 bucks a month, but it's my setup, my everything. That's nice. And does exactly what you want it to do. Yeah, and it looks the way I want it to look. It looks the way cuz a lot of people do Yeah, exactly.
A lot of people will create software and they're the the people who are coding it doesn't necessarily look the way that a user would want it. I made mine the way a user would want it, the loan officer and the processor and the people that do the stuff. Gotcha. Well, most people that make that stuff, they don't understand exactly what you need for it to do. Yeah. Well, they're the coder, the coder, coder, the person in the background. And they were talking about AI how much it was going to change things, you know, and we're all pushing and the biggest change that AI has done is really to coding. Other than that, it's really not as drastic as what people think. It's not replacing everybody, but it's helping you.
It's helping that person do a better job quicker, faster, and better. Yeah, and and you have more time now to do more or other stuff. Yeah. And now you can actually have full-on conversations with AI and you don't even have to go outside and get a real friend. Actually, I I do my walk with Claude. Do you? You guys hang out? Yeah, cuz I talk about things and get things done. Well, it's like today when I yesterday my air conditioning stopped in my truck and I was like, that's weird. There's a system and everything. So I checked the fuses like I would normally do, but I Except the one spot. the one inside. Yeah, but I checked the big major ones to see if that was it. And uh then I asked it this morning and it's like, okay, and then I told it a couple other things.
Oh, that's definitely the this or this or this. And that's it. Those three things and it's not it's not the it's not the motor, it's not the this, it's you're right, it's just either a relay or a fuse or something else. But what's nice is the fact that you don't have to search, you just ask it. Yeah. Yeah. And it goes finds it in seconds. It's just so fast. Yeah. I should have told my son to do that with his car. His AC went out and he took it into the shop and $3,500 later he's he's got a uh air conditioner again and new front rotors. Yeah, but the question is did the fan work or did it just not blow? You know what I mean? That's the question what what happened. If the fan's working and it's just not blowing cold air.
And then the fan if it's if the fan only blows on high or a certain number, then it's there's just so many little things that it is like if this does this, then you know it's this. And it's cuz if you're a mechanic, things are pretty much, you know, it's kind of like medical. It's it's if A is this way and B is this way, this is how this works and so you can definitely figure out where it's broken along the way. Yeah, you've done it before. Yeah. God, you learn everything on this show. So so after this you're going to check the under dash fuse box. Yes, and then there's another relay to check to see if it melted. Is that in the tailgate? No, in the tailgate. Why would it be in the tailgate? He's messing with you.
All right, that's all I have. I mean, the Straight is still closed even though Trump says it's open. It's open. Yeah. Well, it's open at both ends, just nobody's going through it, right? Correct because He means physically, not emotionally. He's got a text like that. I don't need that. I don't need it either. So we decided to sell our 32 acres. Now I just need to know how to price it. Oh, price it high because you always go down. Oh, is that what it is? That's what every seller says. I want to start high cuz I can always come down. Well, you're going to waste probably 45 days. Yeah, I don't want to waste 45 days. I'm just tired. All right, kids. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow.
There's not a lot of biz not a lot of news. There's business out there. Go find it. I'm going to go look for it today. All right, well, here here's one. There's a couple people behind the uh building that I think if we put all 19 of them together, they could afford a rental. Well, speaking of rentals, what we didn't talk about what I told you originally. I was watching the news this morning in between my falling asleep uh that this cost for renting an apartment in Manhattan is ridiculous. Well, it's probably like San Diego. Uh studios go for 4,088 a month. One bedroom apartments go for 5486. That's 5,486. Two bedroom apartments go for 8,054 and a three bedroom goes for 12,208 228. 12,228. Yeah, so when people, you know, You got to pay that every month?
Every month, yeah. You're renting. It's called rent. It's just like a mortgage, but these are rented apartments. Yeah. It's due every month. That's a big nut to crack. That's a lot of money. How How many families can fit in a two bedroom apartment? Uh two. One in each bedroom. And then you get the the family, other part of the family in the other room. Well, I'm just saying that's that's a lot of money. And in Modesto, what's rent? 22 to 3 grand depending on where you're at. Yeah, and that's a a three bedroom, two bath home. A house. Right, not an apartment. Not an apartment. Apartments I don't I don't It's been a while since I've had to look for a client for a short-term rental in an apartment.
Well, that short-term rentals is like short-term money. It's the most expensive money. It really is. All right, that's all I wanted cuz I totally forgot about that, so I wanted to throw that in there. Costa Rica's household poverty rate is below 20%. I think we should move there. Well, I hear it's really nice. Yeah, some months out of the year. Yeah, not the rainy season. Is it tropical? Yeah, of course it is. It's like Mexico, you know, down in PV. You don't want to be there from end of May through Septemberish cuz that's the rainy season and it's so it's humid. So if you like Southern if you like humidity, go during that time. We were in Mazatlan one year um the week before Christmas and it was like 95°, very very very hot.
Yeah, but that's but not humid. Not humid. Yeah, I mean that's like that's like Cabo. Cabo's like that. The ocean breeze would come in at like 91 and you felt so much cooler. Oh, you must be on the the Yeah, we're on the mainland side. Yeah, was that Sea of Cortez? Sea of Cortez. All right, everybody make it a great day. We'll talk Enjoy this day to the fullest. Yes, bye. We'll be back tomorrow and on the radio on Saturday. Bye.
More from Real Estate Jerky Daily
HEARD ON
