Mortgage Bonds Get Relief While Oil Climbs to $92 a Barrel

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with Mike Kelly, Real Estate Jerky Daily. I was like confused, are we going live or not? Are we Are we going to do it? Sometimes it's just, you know, takes a while. Well, Well, what? Why don't you go ahead and go first since you don't have anything to upload. Carl, let's just Yeah, I'm not going to I'm not going to show it. I'm just going to say, you know, August 31st was uh uh last Monday and today is especially supposed to be the third day that you can The last day. you've got the grace period to put your closings in. We were in 260 something yesterday. We're 276 as far as closed transactions in the Stanislaus County area. We were at 788 listings uh yesterday.

We're at 749 listings today. And our pending sales went up to 359 from three and a quarter or so. So um things are happening, uh properties are selling, and those are the smart people buying right now. Yeah, because it's going to get crazy again. It's like we talked about yesterday, I think, about the mansion tax. So you know what that's going to happen. So now all those mansions are going for a million over asking at least, um if not more than that. That means every other property is going to go up in value all the way down the chain. That means all the way to Manteca, whatever, and then we'll get into Modesto go up in value because people can't afford over there anymore, so they're coming this way.

And then those values are going to go up. Everyone's like, what are you guys talking about? What's this million? I thought that was going under. There were nobody buying. They're all leaving the state. No. When you got FU money, they don't care. Yeah, a million dollars over asking is is like look at all this money I got. Yeah, just it's a drop in the bucket. Oh, by the way, I'm pounding everybody back. If you're not 25,000 I'm like $25 million cash, if you're less than that, don't even rewrite it. Right. Write over that. Yep. That's That's egregious. Yes, it is. All right, I guess Waller made some comments yesterday and it's helping the bond market. Oh, good. Yeah, so let's see. Dow's up 663 right now.

Wow. Yeah, um I could tell you what the other stuff is, but for some reason it's not showing. What did Waller say? He said some good stuff. Said some good stuff, huh? Come on, markets update. Get caught up with me. A 10-year is sitting at 4. 748, which is down 0. 032. Wow. And I don't know what the uh rates are, you know, they were about 14 basis points better today, but I can't tell you. It won't let it won't show it. Yeah, for some reason. Let's see if I do a market overview. It's not loading. There it is. Uh 10-year is 4. 746, down four basis points. The rates are better by 23 basis points today. Wow. So it was good when somebody reached out to me and says, can you beat this? I was able to because rates got better.

And the day before? Well, the problem is Well, agents like, can you do any better? Because she wants a local lender and this person's out of somewhere else and it's a bank, you know, that fun stuff is. And it's not like a, you know, we'll just leave it at that. And I'm like, so I checked. I'm like 765 goes for 740, whatever. I'm like, yeah, today I can't beat it by much, but here's what I have. But today you could beat it by more? No, I'm just that's what His was dated as of the third too, so Gotcha. Oh. Yeah. I just replied back because he had closing costs on there. He didn't have any closing costs. He only had discount points for the rate. Oh. Talking about a BS pre-approval. Yeah. Yeah, this is the discount point, but I'm not going to tell you we have underwriting fees, processing fees, and we got this other garbage fee.

Yeah, I will I will surprise you later. Exactly. So I did exactly what he did because you asked me what was my numbers off of. This is what it is off of. All that dude. All right, so let's go back to Waller and get off what I'm talking about. All right, oil prices however continue to move higher. WTI trading at $92 a barrel on the wall. Fed governor Christopher Waller, you know, he's a voting member. He gave his thoughts on inflation and what he looked at determining whether to hike or pause on September 16th. He explained that he sees upside risk to inflation, that energy tariffs and wages are not the sources of ongoing inflation pressure, and that there's no significant increase to long-term inflation expectation.

Bottom line, he just said, I have no idea. Yeah. We don't know. I don't think the new I don't think that the current stuff is causing the inflation is what he's talking about. Um but again, if it comes in hotter, potential 25 basis point in September. In this month. And it won't hurt us. It'll actually be good for a short. It'll show the bond market they're really doing something. That's how I'm going to take it. Initial jobless claims came out today, which measures individuals filing for employment for the first time. It rose 2,000 to 206,000 206 Not 206 thousands, yeah. For some reason I thought I kept saying like 2006. No, that was 20 years ago. The level of firing remains remarkably stable at a very low level for quite some time.

Continuing claims, those who filed, you know, who are filed and still on because they haven't been kicked off yet, rose 8,000 to 1. 8 million. So that's going up again. Oh. Because those are that means there's new people who are on there. Yep, for a longer period of time. Rivello released their private labor market report this morning. It's kind of like a ADP employment. Okay. Uh measured job growth in August. They reported there were only 37,000 jobs created. Sounds like ADP this week, which is the lowest level of job creation. The breakdown of where the jobs came from adds to the weakness. 27,000 jobs came from social media. I'm just kidding, that's a joke. Uh 27,000 jobs came from public administration, which is most likely government jobs.

Those aren't good. And uh while 22,000 are attributed to healthcare social assistance again. Government. Yeah, well healthcare isn't, but the social assistance is. That social part is. So it's we need more people in the government tit. Uh majority of the jobs have been coming from both of these sectors are not economically sensitive. Leisure and hospitality, which does respond to economic stuff that's going on, shedded 20,000 jobs and been and it's been a trend on losses. Those are probably all the people at the call centers and now they're done by AI. Right. Yeah. And you can't hit a button to go to zero to get somebody because there is no zero anymore. And I was telling somebody else that you should have on your phone system, if you're going to use AI especially after hours or whatever, do one for human, two for AI.

Because sometimes you just want to talk to AI and you don't want to deal with a person. And sometimes you really need to talk to somebody. And I And they were like, wow, that's a great idea. And I come up with them occasionally. Yeah. There's no zero anymore. Exactly. Yeah. Scott Graham, one of my neighbors, great guy, looks like he's back in town. He's watching us. Oh, he has nothing else to do, huh? Get a job. Yeah. He's been traveling all over the place. The guy is having a great time, I think. You think? Yeah. Well, I love that. I think I'm going to do better. You think? Yeah, pretty sure. Pretty sure. It's like that event I was at, this one of the vets like, I think I'm going to be Okay, there's your problem.

I think I am Popeye. I am Popeye. We played poker last night. I actually walked away with $40. Really? I started with only 20. It's a low stakes poker game. It sounds like it was a dollar. What is it? Sense to get What's the buy-in? A dollar? $20. Buy-in's $20 and you can't you can't bet more than a dollar at a time. We used to have Keith Shephardson in our group and he would do a poker thing, but the house would win all the, you know, would get half the money. Yeah. Well, well, did he provide the food? Yes. Then he should have gotten half the money. But yeah, I think he didn't provide that amount of food and drink. Yeah. But I think that's illegal. Well, only if you get reported. Only if you get reported?

You're going to get reported by somebody. Yeah. All right, that's all I have for today. That's not a ton of news on a Thursday. I'm glad that, you know, we closed what we closed for the month of August. I don't even remember. I think I was only here for one week of it. Um but I mean my wife was here for two weeks, but I was at another thing for the other. But I was like, wow, this month went fast. Now I kind of know what it's like to be the Vanderpump's just gone all the time. Yeah. Somebody. Yeah. They're all all the time, all the time. Whoever they are. Oh, Dan Dan's going to report me. Watch this. Here we go. I'll report Mike. Good. Please report. I want to see him get handcuffed. Yeah. And not that fake stuff.

Get me out of jail with the social, you know, with the Oh, yeah. What was that that we used to get arrested for? Societies of disability or something? Yes. Yeah. And we'd have to call all our friends and try to raise bail. And then they sorry, buddy. You're not a friend of mine. Yeah. Don't Who I Who's calling? Okay. Make it a great day. Yeah. I just had 276 closings. All right, you're done? Yes. I got to go get a shot, man. Wow. Through the roof. Through the roof. Make it a great day, everybody. Amazing. All right, bye. Enjoy.