Mortgage Pricing Worsens 63 Basis Points as Iran Headlines Rattle Markets

Got an error. Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut with Mike Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. Error. We've got an error on Mike Kelly's Facebook page. Oh, you're live now, Mike. Oh boy. Yeah. I know you were worried there for a minute. I was so totally worried. Yeah, let's see. What's going on with you over the weekend? Anything? Oh, I got to play in a golf tournament that I'd always wanted to play in. Um, Lynn Via Bondi's golf tournament, her memorial. Did you win? No. No, I Well, I didn't stay to see. We were seven under. We We We did no worse than par. Um, so the four of us were shooting lights out for duffers who don't play very often. Um, of course the greens were in good shape. The fairways were a little to be desired.

Where was it at? Creekside. Yeah, it's in rough shape. Yeah, there's a Yeah. Um, but it was a good time and a good fundraiser for all. Um, What is the fundraiser for? I don't know. I'm not sure who she gives the money to. I know she gives um, Rotary some money. Oh. So. You want to do your numbers? Yeah, let's get those out of the way. They're pretty glorious. Um, look at that. 848 listings. I think we're in the 860s on Friday when we left this mortal coil. Pendings are 371. We were a little bit higher then, but we're much higher on the closings of 229 since the 1st of September to today. And in March and April, we were 100 more than that. 100 more than that in March and April. Yep. Absolutely.

February February had a few fewer days and we were higher than this in February. Yeah. This month's not over yet. You want the moral of the story is? Um, by high sell low. People No, people are buying. Yeah. That's the moral. People are still buying and people are still refinancing and people are still doing reverse mortgages. Actually, reverse mortgages is through the roof. They still buying. You know, the best answer you can ever give when somebody asks you how's the market? It's the market. It's still People are still buying and selling. It's still the market. Yeah. Cuz they have to. Who fixed the camera? I put more light on. Nobody fixed the camera. We just put some makeup on him. Yeah. Yep.

I got a facial. Nope, that sounds bad. It's the same camera, same computer, same everything. It's his personality. I turned Yeah, exactly. We have him touch something before he comes in here so that his magnetic personality doesn't affect everything. I brightened up. I I turned two lights towards me. Now you just need to get a tan. So what's going on in the world? I was just reading the AI thing. Well, my breaking news today. Nvidia adds 150 billion to massive stock buyback, the largest ever. Information. Whoa. Yeah, and also there was one earlier about who's responsible for when AI goes rogue? Ed Parcaut. I don't think Uh-oh, you're now you're getting grainy again. See, it just depends. Yeah.

All right, what do we have today? We have We should have inventory. Let's see where my inventory is. Yeah, that's it right there, but I'd rather read it over here. We're at 895,398. That's up 5,095. Median list price is down 900 to 439,000. Yes. Days on market still at 70. Price cuts went up about 0. 44%, which is out 42. 51%. So almost 43 homes out of every 100 has a price reduction. Wow. Yeah, I think it's so interesting that national numbers, the days on the market, the average are 70 and in California we're at 27. Yeah, well cuz that's not many people can afford to sell or buy, so they're not doing it. Active inventory last year at this time, same week, what do you think? So we're at 895.

What do you think? Exactly. Oh, we I'm going to say we were down. We were probably in the 700s, high sevens. Wrong. Well, you could still get up on the wheel of fortune. I I didn't go over. 862,590. Oh. Yeah, so not so majorly We do have more houses on the market, but not majorly more houses on the market. Median didn't put up median list or the days on the market compared to last year. I don't know why they don't do that, but they didn't. But you just said them, 70 and 349. I know that. I'm talking for last year. I wish they would have the numbers for last year. Oh, gotcha. That would have been interesting. And but what we did have today, which was pretty brutal, we already had alert to lock today and we're So the bonds are the 10 years up to 5.

2635. Yeah. And the rates are worse by 63 basis points, which sounds bad, but they were worse by 88 earlier. Yeah, so they're better. That's right. Lots better. It's how you look at it. It's getting rosy. Yeah. It's like I I'm bleeding out, but I stopped the bleeding. I'm still bad. But I'm still going to die. I'll just die slower. Yeah, so what do I also have here? So we talked The big thing is because of the fact that Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a ceasefire. Yeah, he didn't like it. That's the big issue that's going on right now. So Iran said seven days. Washington said no. Iran offered a reopening the straight of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts naval blockades, ease sanctions and agrees to a ceasefire.

Yeah. Hope it first. The president said no. He said he expects talks to resume this week. The Wall Street Journal reported citing unnamed officials that he told AIDS he expected strikes to resume after the midterms. Saudi Arabia foreign minister is in Washington for talks with Secretary Rubio cuz he doesn't make it to the president. I guess he's not getting enough. Yeah. And the hoodies keep firing at Saudi Arabia over the weekend. This is that's what's going on. Why aren't they firing back? Is Saudi Arabia firing back? They're trying I don't think they have much with camels. It's hard to throw the camels. Oh. Well, you know, what is that that thing that they have some stuff. I don't think they have a full army yet.

They're trying to get that together. Maybe they put the camel on the Archimedes lever and fling them over there. No, that's wrong. Don't abuse animals. That is wrong. Mike, you're just wrong. Well, I didn't say live ones. Oil this morning, the Brent's at 106. 79. That's pretty high compared to where it was. Yeah. Global yield UK 10 years up. Everything You know, just our bond problem isn't just our problem. It's a global problem. So that's all about the oil or the base, however you want to put it. Yeah. It's the base, but not the treble. No treble, no treble. You need a little bit, but not too much base because then you can't hear the words. You got to work that out. You got to have it put in right.

There was a a POS, I think it was a Camry, probably in the '90s, a '98 or '99 Camry. Paint was already you know, was doing the peeling off of it and it pulled up alongside me Friday on my Camry and when the base hit, I thought my truck was going to jump over to the right a little bit. Well, you know, cuz if you have a really bad car, if you put a really nice stereo system in it, it's fine because you don't hear the stuff falling off. Yeah. Yeah, if you spend thousands of dollars on a stereo system, you'll never be able to afford another car. Let's see what my brain said today. It's carefully floating what MBS said. We said lock and guess what? It changed to lock. Yeah, did it? So yeah, every Yeah, so we said lock from the beginning and it said they were like float today and then no, lock now.

We were wrong. It's up 80. Oh. And I'm not saying we're better. I just I look at it. So what I built out was everything about the bonds and everything that could affect it, the betting markets, all the different things like that. Let's see if I can pull up my rate. Yeah, the betting markets. Those crack me up. I'm going to bet on the interest rates. No, it just like Fed Fed hikes in October futures is at 68%. The betting markets is at 71%. December futures are at 92%. The Fed that's the futures and the Fed hikes betting is at 79. I Here's the one that got me. Iran oil route back to normal by October 31st. Hmm. 7%. A 7% chance of that? Yeah, poly markets. Iran oil back by November 30th. Yeah. 16%.

Oh, it's getting better. Iran oil route back to normal by December 31st. What do you think? 23%. 24, that is correct. Oh, wow. You probably rounded it up. So what I'm getting at is once I put this whole brain together and I see all those different things, it tells me that the market's not going to move anytime soon. We're going to be in this market for a while unless there is some type of ceasefire and the whole war's over. If the war's not over, none of the stuff's going to worry. I mean, fix itself. It's just going to be here and we're going to be stuck in it. Yeah, we're all going to worry. So if you're a seller, help do a buy down for your buyer. Yeah. At least a one oh buy down. Or pay two years of their homeowner's insurance.

Well, that's not on your thing. In my case. Yeah, that's not on your thing. That's not going to help the rates. No, it doesn't help the rates, but it does help their insurance. It's already paid for. Boom boom boom. Well, it depends on where that situation is. How about do something for the buyer so that the buyer can afford your house and get in there because people are still need to find a place to live. Well, that's an option too, absolutely. Yeah, I mean, whatever you need to do, help them out to get in there. That's I don't have much more than that. Do we have any California corner? Governor Newsom Wednesday vetoes death. Who cares? Somebody needs to investigate him. I think supposedly the the DOJ, the Department of Justice in the United States is under investigation with him.

You know, the sad thing is it seems like these people they get away with with everything. What is the AB 1738? Most cities must offer remote inspections for water heaters, heat pumps, reroofs, small solar and detectors. So that's that's most likely a rental thing, a landlord thing and making sure that the homes are in compliance with being houseable. Can you verify Can you do look into that for me? I will. AB 1729 you said? No, 1738. Hike. I will jot it down now. He vetoed AB 2166, a state backstop for offsite housing factories. So is that like building housing in a factory? Probably. Manufactured homes. What number was that? That was 2166. It's also AB. 2166? Correct. Okay, I was listening. I was listening.

So there's still Don't forget Ron Popiel's Beverly Hills estate is still for sale. Only 25 million. Eight bedrooms, 11 bathrooms, Italian villa on Waycrest Drive. He owned it since 2002. That's weird. I thought he was gone. I'm sorry, I don't mean that wrong. I just didn't think he was around anymore. How much? Hey. Yeah, I thought he passed away too. But wait, now what will you pay? It also does Julian fries. We will give you the BMW from 2002 in the driveway. Yeah, in the driveway. With new tires. It's going to need a battery. Yeah, we got What do we have this week coming up? We have Let me check my list over here. Case Schiller home This is my rate jerky thing I agree to you. Case Schiller home prices tomorrow, Jolts, FHA house prices, Wednesday's GDP, ADP jobs, PCE personal income and personal consumption expenditure, Thursday's housing inventory, jobless claims and Friday is the BLS jobs report.

I was just so looking forward to Jolts. No, you're not. It's my favorite. Is it? Yeah. Journal of longing things. Yeah. There's still that Mr. Beast house that you don't know anything about. So it's still for sale too. It's for sale? Yeah, that's the one that has all the mirror. The one that's for 241 225 250,000 in Greenville, North Carolina where Mr. Beast came in. He was a YouTuber, I mean the YouTuber that got so big and now he's worth a lot of money and he does stuff that everybody follows him. So I understand you don't understand it cuz it's not a reruns. Is that 85 million? Yeah. No, it no, it's not an original. He is original. Yes. You just don't follow cuz you just don't follow. Well, I guess he is original.

I don't follow. Okay, we're good there. All right, that's all I have for today and I appreciate everybody who's been on Instagram and on everywhere else. Sorry if I missed you, if I didn't. Sorry. And by the way, check out our website, realestatejerky. com. If you've missed any of the shows, they're there. Um we also have a local event corner, which is called the community corner for stuff that's in your area. If you're in our five counties, Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin, uh Tuolumne and Calaveras, you'll know what's happening. If you're not If your event's not there, send us an email with it and we'll make sure it gets there. You'll know what's happening. There you go. And if you guys want this in other counties, then you're going to have to get us on your radio stations.

There you go. All right, make it a great day and we'll talk to you tomorrow. Bye. Bye.