Mortgage Rates Worsen Slightly as Labor Market Softens Again

No, just put shit in the rooms. Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut with Mike Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. That is correct. Daily. Yes. Today's a day. Feels like Tuesday, but I know it's Wednesday. It is definitely Wednesday and it feels like it should be the end of the week for me. Yeah, that would be nicer. More nicer. Problem is I had a really busy last two months and then I'm like, oh my god, I have a lot of money in the account, but I I'm nervous. Going to have to spend it all. No, because I read some articles how people are getting nervous right now because of where we are again. The the tenure is the highest it's been in two years. What's it today? Did you Uh 4. 7981. It's flat from yesterday.

Rates are worse by four basis points. Dow's up by $302 and some change and in two seconds it'll be higher or lower. Yeah. So it doesn't matter. Well, let me see what it changed to already. 303. Yes, 308. Anyway, so that's kind of what we got going on today. I forget I can't use a green coffee cup anymore. You can, it just looks funky. Yeah, well it's a it's a special it's a special coffee cup. Looks like the background. What's so special? Oh, happy. Yeah, happy Happy Gilmore got it when we were in Michigan because we kept eating at the I want to say Country Crock, but uh it's not Country Crock. Thank you. And I needed a coffee cup for the room because we had an espresso that we had gotten from uh because we we always travel with an espresso machine usually, but when we fly you can't do that.

Well, we were at Costco and they had one left for like $97 and the box was destroyed and they're like, if there's a problem with it, bring it back. Okay. Crockle Barrel. Yeah. Okay. Stop by here before my way to the airport. Uh we did the day before that. But anyway, yeah. All right, we're So anyway, let's move on. So that's where I got this one. I was like, that's perfect. Happy Gilmore. All right, I'll let you go first. Well, I think yesterday, you know, I still want to see what's going to close out for the month of August. So I'm just going to, you know, there's two more days for agents to close their their crap out. Uh but we were at what were we at yesterday? 279 or 281? We're at 283 closings for the month so far.

Oh, we were at 282. One more closing. Um that was probably mine. No, that was inside. I still got to figure out why you're so grainy over there. Yeah, it's just my face. 778 listings. That's one more listing than we had yesterday and our pendings went down just a little bit so you would think that the closings would go up, but maybe they fell out of escrow. You're fine on the screen, so it's just me. Yeah, okay. Um so that's that's the fact jack. Um we didn't talk about state yesterday. We talked about national numbers and inventory, but state um week ending August 29th uh we had 456 closed sales per day. Mhm. That'd be one good agent. You know, that that'd be a good year right there. Good month?

Yeah. Uh 458 pending sales, so we blasted past our closed sales. And 542 new listings per day week ending August 29th. We're at the same days we were last week at at uh 29 days median days on the market. And we've gone up. We were at 40. 1 last week as far as um reduced prices. Now we're at 41. 4 which is getting closer to the national um average. And it takes a little over a half a half a home to be listed to um replenish the one that sold. I was wondering why we're Oh, I miss YouTube today. Uh-oh. I was too busy playing with it instead of making it go live on there. I was like, I was We're down one. Anyway. So those are the facts, Jack. All right, well thank you for that, mister. Appreciate it.

Um we have three things kind of driving the show today. ADP employment came in at 38,000 and they were expecting 48,000 or higher. Yeah, so it was kind of a shocker for them. Yeah. Wow. That's that would be better, right? Fewer people on it. No, ADP employment means they only 38,000 jobs created weaker than the estimates of 53,000. I'm sorry, I was wrong on it. This was the fewest jobs created in seven months and a sign that labor market continues to soften. All the jobs came from education and health which contributed to 45,000 people going back to schools here. That means in agrid all of the other sectors lost 7,000 jobs. Turning to wages, workers stay on the same at the same job, increase their pay by 4.

4% year over year which was It's the same as it's been the last few months. Job switchers, that's people who keep moving. They saw their pay increase 7. 3% from last year versus 7. 5 previously. Now I remember three years ago or more that thing was like 15 to 20. You know what I mean? It was a big number. Now people are like, stay because if they're going to lay off, you're going to be the first one to go. Yeah. Yeah, am I not get a job too. All right, so that's one of the things driving and that like I said, that's the weakest in seven months which is January. Two, the New York Fed John Williams said the Fed funds rate is in a good place right now softening the whole thing about, hey, we're going to hike in September.

Right. Right, I said that I think yesterday. Um mortgage rates, you know, just they're they're in a long-term high, two years. Yes, it's it's not a mess. It's still they're still better than Biden years of 8%, but we're getting we're probably, you know, in the higher sixes, you know, mid mid to higher sixes depending on your FICO score and everything else. In a mess. I think they should just drop about 92 more bombs and just get it all over with. Well, that's the other thing though. I didn't get into the mortgage applications yet, but the since you brought up the bombs, oil prices are slightly a little lower this morning, but still just very close to $90 a barrel. Mhm. Yeah. Uh Energy Secretary Chris Wright who said that more than 17 million barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday which is good sign that it's almost, you know, that this is the that's the best it's had because we used to see 20 million barrels uh a day through there and then it got down to where we're only negative 5.

5 barrels million barrels because they're using pipelines and everything else. But, you know, what are you going to do? Everybody says it's it's going to be a failure. We'll see what happens. Mortgage applications that they So the Mortgage Bankers Association released their mortgage application data for last week showing that rates were at 6. 79% which puts them about an eighth higher than this time last year and at the highest level in about 12 months. Application volume was flat. Um week over week purchases also unchanged year over year, but refinances were down 19%. Refinances made up 42% of all total transactions and most of them being cash out because people are hurt and they need money.

Yeah, and using and then also debt consolidation and stuff like that is what a lot of people are doing. Uh you really to do a cash out right now, you really need the money. Cash out. Yeah, cuz what is cash out? Seven seven and an eighth? Again, it depends on your FICO score. I can't tell you, I can't do anything cuz if VA's different, FHA's different. Depends on FICO and all those things. Well, and you can't really quote rates period. I can, but I need to know 27 different things to be able to tell you that rate. Come on Ed, you're messing around. Ain't 27 different things. Yeah, loan to value, type of property, uh owner occupied, non-owner, you know, all those there's a bunch of stuff. Okay, might be 26.

The the fear ratio. FICO score, LTV. What's the fear ratio? The the risk. Oh. Well, that's the risk-based pricing. Yep. Uh they're looking at um House Republicans introduced HR Huff Huff and stuff 10184 to move uh to move CFPB funding into congressional appropriation process and to and expand oversight. The package adds adds the Inspector General requires periodic reviews of major rules and and supervisory Basically, when they made this whole thing nobody had oversight. Now they're trying to put oversight and make They're not going to make it worse. They're not going to make it go away, but hopefully they'll do some better stuff. Well, and hopefully they're just making sure people are doing what the rules say.

Yeah, I wonder if anybody caught my huff and stuff. I caught it. I I giggled a little bit. HR huff and stuff. Yeah, you saw it when it came out. I did. The originals I did not watch the reruns cuz I was too old. No longer thought it was cool, but was horrible haircut. Your haircut or the Oh, he didn't have Oh, the No, his. Yeah, it was like a mop top. Yeah, but it was He's a puppet kind of thing or whatever you call that. Well, you had the live guy, right? Well, yeah, but he was a what do you call that? Uh in a in a character suit or whatever you want to call it. Yeah. Right. Uh what else did I want to talk about? I don't know cuz you didn't tell me. There's nothing else really. Um I I It's just business as usual.

I mean, I just Well, people are worried and don't worry. It's If you need to move, you need to buy, do it now. I mean, with less people doing it, you're getting great deals. I have people still writing offers right now and I don't mean like ho ho, they're still I'm saying they're going guess what? Well, I actually had one wrote an offer and the and the seller didn't even uh reply back. Yeah, that's not me writing it. Somebody else wrote it. And uh they were only According to, you know, the agents, they were only off by like three grand. Really? Right. And the seller said, nah, I'm not going to respond? No, I mean, it is a purchase price of 194, so So they came in at 191? No, I'm just saying that's, you know, who knows.

I don't know. That's crazy. You would think you'd at least counter back. Oh no, I just reduced the price and I'm I'm sticking. They actually That's what happened. They just reduced the price and they asked for some closing costs and a certain price point and they're like, nah, we're not going to reply back. So So they rewrote it for, you know, and then we'll see what happens. And see if they're going to respond. But you could have upset them too much. They don't really want to sell. That's ridiculous for people to do that. I just noticed I got a splinter in the tip of my finger. So I'm going to pick that all day. Well, why you're not messing with the wood. Yeah, no. No. Um What else do we got coming up tomorrow?

Tomorrow's Thursday. Yeah, so we have uh initial jobless claims. Oh. I haven't looked back. I'm not going to look back. I only want to look forward. Let's be positive. None of that crazy negative stuff. Well, there's a I mean, there's a lot of stuff going on with AI and I was listening and been looking at a bunch of stuff and they're talking about how uh that what you pay 20 bucks a month for ChatGPT if you do really costs them like eight grand. Oh. For the amount if you use it the way it does. So they All the AI that you use ChatGPT, Claude, even if you're on $100 one or $200 plan a month, that's like $14,000 that they're not getting back for that $200 a month. And so basically the costs of AI, so the long story short is it's like Amazon.

When Amazon first came out it was a . com losing money. The only reason they were propped up was all the money coming in. Same with all the AI companies. Each one's giving each one 300 million or whatever money constantly and that's the only way they're staying in business. So eventually the question's going to be when will that domino stop and they won't get that money anymore. Yeah. That'll be interesting to see and and what happens to it. Yeah, that would Well, that'd be whoever's left. Right. That's who's going to The one person. Oh, and you can't be one person. Yeah. It's going to be beta or VHS, one of those two. I bet it goes beta this time cuz it won't be VHS last time. No, I think it's it's the it's the large CD.

Oh, the the laser disc. Laser disc. You have to get a laser disc player. I actually had one. The three movies that came out on a laser disc. Oh, then the DVD. People have The kids have no idea how bad it we had it. Constantly having to change different things. I watched Rockford Files the other day and he has this camera he's taking video of. He's got this camera. It's tied to this big suitcase that has a freaking thing in it cuz he took it with him. And that camera's tied to a cable and it's a big camera. Supposedly shows really well. You know it's not showing it cuz you know it'd be all grainy back then. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah, it's just funny what we had to deal with. The first, you know, cell phone was such a brick.

Remember? That was a big brick. Well, and remember when you called it a mobile phone because it was actually attached to the car? Yeah, it was in your vehicle. You couldn't take it with you. So that's what people don't get. It's like I don't like taking my phone because I didn't have a phone when I was younger attached to my ass or I hated the pagers because people would do Yeah. 911 for stupid things. I just needed to get an answer from you. Well, this will be the last time I come back on 911. Yeah, really? Yeah, cuz your 911s are fake 911s. You're not in real trouble. Yeah. Yeah. All right, that's all I have. I'll be back tomorrow. Have a long one. Yeah, me too. Have the best day. Remember, prices are still good for sellers and activity is pretty good for buyers and you're going to get a little bit of stuff.

You might get some credits, you might get some repair work. You might. You might. You just never know. Yeah. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow. Bye. Bye, kids.