National Inventory Falls While Days on Market Holds at 70

Good morning everybody. I'm at Park Co here with Mike Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. And if you don't know, we have a new website called realestatejerky. com. Go there, check out everything out. And check it, check it, check it. It's really good. If you miss a show, just go there. If you want to know what's going on in the community, it's there too. And it's all five counties. I fixed that yesterday. It was all five counties, but it only said all four counties. Yeah, so Merced, Stanislaus, Tuolumne, Calaveras, and San Joaquin. Anyway, what do you got? Oh, did you? I got these. Look, watch. Ready? Oh my god, the numbers are huge today as opposed to yesterday. 869 listings. What did we do? We went, we dropped down two because we were 871, 364 pendings, and 209 closings.

It doesn't matter just through the pandemic and the close. Because your math is never right. Thru from September 1st to today. Not bad. All right, so if you're, is that it? That's all it is? Yeah, what do we, what do we have? Um. I don't know, why you drop that down? Oh, it's right this morning. Today is the 25th or 26th? It is the 25th. Oh, then we got six more days. Woo hoo hoo. Yeah. Uh, yeah. And then if I can do the state, 300 California according to CAR, I'm just going to talk to it. Were you talking? 338 closed sales per day. We're down 18. 2% from the week previously. 308 pending sales per down per day. Um, 308. We're, that's abysmal. That's 34. 7% lower than the week previously. And 426 listings, uh, 39.

3% lower than the week before. And we're, we're down another day average on the, on the market is 27 days and 41. 2% of all listings are being reduced to get them sold. All right, sounds good. Yeah, how fun was that? Thrill. It's amazing. Yeah. I don't know what to do now. You do too. Dow is up 210. I wonder if it was because all those speeches yesterday. Uh, is that still up that much? Uh, the MBS is, no, we're about three basis points right now and the 10 year sitting at 4. 2, 5. 20, 5. 20. Mine says 228. Oh, when you said 4. 2, I went, wow, that's a dramatic drop. Yeah, according to mortgage backed security MBS Highway, they are floating according to my rate brain that I'm building out, which has all the history all the way back of everything you could think of.

It's saying to lock because since 2022 at this score, mortgage rates rose 15 basis points plus for over the next two weeks by 53% of the time and fell 15 basis points only 13% of the time. Moral of the story, lock. It doesn't really matter. It can only get worse. The big thing is we, it's, it's going to be, I told, hey, what, you know, go figure out these different percentages and it wanted me to get Kashi, you know, that, that, that, that. Yeah, the bet app. Yeah. And to see, you know, what can make the big difference. And there's a few things that can make the big difference, which is oil. Is the war over? Mhm. No, not yet. Yeah, those are the things. Inflation next week. Wait, is it November 3rd?

No. No, we're not over. I'm just saying those are the three things that can make the difference in rates. Right now, they're not moving anywhere soon. Yeah, it doesn't feel like it. Yeah. And you can sure tell by the, the sales, the list, the pendings and the listings per day across the state that it's, it's softening things. Yeah, so I saw somewhere like this is the 10 years the highest it's been since 2007 or 2004. Oh my gosh, that's horrible. Yeah, and then here this is, uh, this week the mortgage rates went from 7. 20 to 7. 45 on Thursday. That's the highest since April of 2024. Mhm. Uh, yeah, so the 10 year touch the 5. 22 Thursday the ceiling, we came off of that and at this morning it is 5.

20. Yeah, April of 2024. That was a really good month. I remember that. And that's because oil was down because Iran made an offer overnight. Oh, did they? Yeah. We will kill you. Did they have Jeff Dunham's hand up their back? No, I have no idea what they said. Maybe it's in here. I don't know. Yeah. So the biggest thing is again, uh, the, what did they say? No, I nothing there, nothing there. I'm still looking for what they said anything about that. No, nothing there. Fed, housing affordable conference all place. Market now it is 71% chance of October hike. 64 was earlier this week, so that tells you there's going to be a hike. Oil and Iran Thursday Brent jumped 3. 4% selling at 10660. Oh. Houthi uh, smissles fired at Saudi Saudi Arabia cities including Yambu, a major oil export terminal.

Saudi forces intercepted them. When is somebody just going to slap those guys to stop doing stuff? Yeah. The fact that these people can control areas so easily, that is just unreal. Yep. That'd be like the Democrats taking over. Oh, didn't they do that? Well, they did in I'm just saying they just Look at the mess we're in. Yeah, I can't there's nothing there. All right, what else do we have? We have no, there was really no real durable good orders. Durable good orders in August were flat for the month. Okay, that's some great news. No change. Next week we have a very important news next week. We got jobs and inflation data, Kller, FHFA appreciation reports and jolts your favorite on Tuesday. It is my favorite.

I always wonder. ADP employment report, personal consumption expenditures, GDP mortgage applications on Wednesday, Thursday jobless claims and Friday is the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Statistics. Labor. Let's see how, what's your prediction? It's going to set last month's numbers down by 70,000. Remember that was the biggest? It was three times what they were expecting. Oh, yes. Exactly, exactly. Yeah. I never understand that. We gathered all the information and we counted it once and oh, we're, and then we counted it again where we're off by 400,000. Consumer sentiment came out for final for September. It's not even over yet. University of Michigan's final September reading is at 48.

1. That's a hair better than the 47. 8 earlier read and down from 51. 7 in August. What do you mean final reading? They're just not going to read it anymore? No, that's it. They're done. They said they're No more days. No, they're taking the book away. We don't care what happens in the next five days. Yeah, we already talked about next week because I jumped ahead. We're going to take in California that's important. California corner. Oh, what 7. 45 means in California? Uh, that's a high frequency payment. That's what that means. Down a $620,000 loan, that's a 4319 just P and I. Yeah, it means. Not taxes, not insurance. And the median price range in California is what according to the stats yesterday?

The one day rate move we had was a $80 a month change increase in payment. So if you are a buyer, talk to your lender today and make sure that you know what your payments are. Yeah. Increase. Oh. Yeah. Cuz that's your groceries for the week. You're not buying any. You don't even get a full sack. You know, so the Costa Mesa and all those people, remember they got sued by the state for missing their deadlines for five cities, Calexico, Half Moon Bay, Ridgecrest, Costa Mesa, and of course Turlock right down the road. Every city gets a state quota, blah blah blah. Well, this week Costa Mesa approved 2,300 homes on a 110 acre state-owned site. 920 are set aside for low and very low income residents.

They have their separate entrance. Uh, that was a joke. But only staff said that the site could hold four, but city staff said the site could hold 4,000. Well, 920 + 2,300 isn't 4,000. No, that would be 32. Yeah, the builder needs about 3,450 to make it pencil out. The council cut it, cut, the council cut it over traffic and oh, they cut it. They cut it down because too much traffic and crowding. Yeah, yeah. Additional 800. Yeah, the state wants a court to force compliant plan within 120 days with penalties. How can you force someone to build something where you can't with all the EPA stuff? They just have to have the plan. All the EPA stuff and everything else that's going on, it's so difficult to build.

It's like I think we talked about earlier in the week where someone was like, hey, what's the deal if something's burnt down on there? Uh, talk to LA. They'll tell you. It's real easy. You get to build right away. No problem. Yeah. You don't get to do anything. Yeah, except for these permits and these delays. Let's see, community call out this weekend in Modesto. Wow, I put it in here already. We have Saturday history of low low riding holiday on 10th Street downtown. It's free. Yeah. You don't have to pay for that. No, but you do need to go buy a low rider. And then also morning touch a truck at the MJC Ag Pavilion on West Campus. Bring the kids. You can touch a truck. Touch a truck. It's probably one of those big trucks.

Hey, I don't know if that's on the community corner on Real Estate Jerky, but I definitely will check. Yeah, touch a truck. Yeah, touch a truck. Hey Ma, let's go touch a truck. Wow, that's crazy. Oh, you remember who who said set it and forget it? I don't remember who said it. Rumpopel. Oh, the showtime roast showtime roast rotisserie. There's the word I was looking for. The vegematic, the pocket fisherman. I actually have a pocket fisherman. I found one on eBay and I bought it just to have it. His Beverly Hills estate just hit the market. 25 million. It's an Italian villa, 14,595 square feet, eight bedrooms, 11 bathrooms built in 1995 for the co-founder of the Hard Rock Cafe, Popel. Ron Popel bought it in 2002, a private theater, a foyer, chandelier, chandelier.

Zillow Gone Wild says it needs its own zip code. Zillow Gone Wild. Yeah, that's part of their stuff. Man. Yeah, so that was that was amazing. That was a mouthful. Army Navy game, Army Navy, Navy game today. Oh, that is today, huh? Mhm, yeah. Wow. Wow, wow, wow. Who are you going to go for? It's just the Navy playing against somebody. It's not Army Navy. Army Navy is in December. Okay. I slipped up when I said that. All right, so that's pretty much it. There's not a ton of stuff, but I am what I got tired of is listening to other people tell me what's going on with rates and how it's going to be. And so I built a brain. Yeah, that's pretty cool. Cuz the scarecrow needed one. Uh, the touch a truck is not on the community corner, but maybe we can make sure it gets there.

Yeah, well, I didn't even hear about it until this thing told me. The problem is, yeah, you got to find more places to get that information. I did put on there some Chrome and coffee and Chrome I saw. Coffee and Chrome I saw that at the silos, but that's in October. Right, but I had it added. It wasn't there. So. Coffee, what do you think the Chrome is? Is Mike YouTube stuck in 2009? He's been pixelated for weeks. Yes, he is. I can't fix him. I've tried everything. Yeah. I've done everything. I don't think it's 2009. It might be 2008. I have replaced everything for him but him. Maybe, you know what, maybe leave the curtains open next time. Yeah, I don't know what. Okay. Try that. Open. You don't have any light on you right now.

What's that? That's on one side. On one side, not the other side. Cuz they said that could be, uh, no, didn't make a difference. You just look uglier. Oh shit, now we can see him. It's probably better off to be pixelated for me. I don't know what is the deal with him, but anyway, we'll figure it out. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back on tomorrow at the radio. Yeah, tomorrow radio Monday for this place. All right, bye. Bye.