Oil and Iran Talks Keep Mortgage Markets Guessing

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut and I'd still like to know why you are so grainy and slow. Um everybody was like I didn't want to say it because I showed Brian Galki yesterday your our our what new website, Real Estate Jerky, and he's like I didn't want to say it on air, but he's grainy. I go that's his magnetic personality. Right. It is. It's it's because I'm an alien. I'm from Mars. And I don't understand women. Oh, that's Venus, by the way. Oh. Men are from Mars, women are from Venus. Women are from the other place. You look good over here, so I don't know. I don't know. I I I look at me when later on in the day sometimes I'll check out the show and and go, yeah, I look grainy. It's got to be the camera.

It's not the camera because it's a new it's a totally different camera. It's a totally different cable. It's a totally different mic. It's totally different computer. It's totally different networking. It's probably the camera. Yeah. It's there's only one thing that's the same in all that. Is me. Yes. Well, how do we soften? Um do my do my makeup. Okay. I guess I'm Anyway. All right. So uh what do you got? You got numbers for us today? So well. I got numbers and they're pretty amazing for September. Uh you know what? We increased on the closings by four since yesterday. 182 closings in Stanislaus County since September 1st. Increased the listings by No, wait. We decreased by three. Oh, and then one might have gone pending because we've increased our pending sales by two.

370. Pretty Did the closed go up? Closed went up by four. So wow, your your math is amazing. It is. So we're down we're down to Town. We're up two on the on the pendings. We're down three on the listings and we're up four on the on the closings. That math makes no sense, but uh Yeah. Other thing more more things went pending than closed. Okay. Those are the facts checked. Look at my big old cup. Yeah, blue. Don't point it at everybody. It's kind of green. Yeah, it's green and that's why Why are you so blue then? Do you got blue on? I'm wearing blue. Oh. Okay, let's move on. All right. Uh today we had the Mortgage Bankers Association release their mortgage data for last week ending 9/18 showing that overall application volume decreased by 1.

5%. Applications to purchase were down 1% for the week and down 11% year over year. Refinances decreased by 3% from the previous week and were at 62% lower than a year ago. Wow. And right now we have alert to lock and it is we are 61 basis points worse on rates today and the 10-year went up 13 basis points to 5. 081. Wow. That's huge, man. When's the last time we saw a number like that? 27 2007 2008? Uh I don't I don't know. Uh so um they were NBS highway was like we're going to see if the 5. 03 holds. It didn't hold. That would be a negative red duck leader. Uh the when they did their stuff they were down 40 basis points and now we're down 61. Oh. Yeah, so uh what are you going to do? I don't know.

Punt. Just keep buying. I mean, the Dow's down 267. Don't focus on daily. Focus on monthly. That's all you can do. So with the Mortgage Bankers Association for next week, I guarantee everything's going to be down even worse. Yeah, I would think so. Just because of what's going on. See what is just Yesterday at the UN President Trump threatened to annihilate Iran, which was viewed by the markets as escalation and sent oil prices and yields higher. Later Trump said that his representatives met with Iran and had a very productive 3-hour discussion which reversed the rise in oil and yield. I guess something else was said afterwards. Well, and he met with the people that have no power over in Iran because he didn't meet with the IRGC.

Um Because they won't leave. No, they won't leave. They they don't want to give up power. No, let's put everybody on a plane. That's why they won't leave. Uh also he met with Zelensky. He said his team just wrapped up a very good 3-hour They have a lot of 3-hour meetings. Well, you know. But he also thinks a deal will come right after midterms. Yeah, that's what he said. I I I heard that yesterday. Um I I said that in last two weeks. I know you have. You've been talking about that for a while. Nothing's going to happen until after the election. They want to see if Trump loses Trump's red wave loses at the polls and then they can uh push their weight around a little bit more. Um Did you also Iran's president uh took the same podium this morning and his message was Yeah.

Iran will never surrender. But we're open to diplomacy. Yeah. Yeah. He called out Trump by name, said Iran is ready to negotiate, but not under the language of force. Oh, okay. You want to force us to do things. You want to force the whole world to do things, but damn it, you can't force us. Um you know, Trump did did say what should I do? Should I do diplomacy or should I just annihilate them? I know, but those are the things you don't talk about out loud. I know, but you should. But it's like having two boxers who spent Tuesday shouting in the weigh-ins then quietly sat down in a back in back for 3 hours and then today one of them shouted back. Yeah. Nobody has thrown a punch. Nobody signed anything.

The markets do not know what to do. Yeah. You know, you said the boxers and it remind me of the Ali Frazier days and how they were pretty good buddies and Ali helped Frazier through his um I've spent all my money um times. Um they were they were good buddies, but they were, you know, boxing adversaries. When you got to fight, you got to fight. Yeah. Um also today president What's it Z or X one? However you say that. Zhao. Zhao lands in joint base Andrews, his first visit to Washington in 11 years. Whoa. Could you imagine Trump in office for 11 years? Uh trade rare earth and AI and Iran are all on the table. Thursday there's a dinner with the biggest names in tech. Nobody expects a breakthrough.

Of course not. Nothing's going to happen. No. Uh Whoever wins AI wins the world. Well, the the AI will win the world. Yeah. And it's super intelligence, not AI intelligence. That's what Trump wants to change the name to. SI? Actually, why don't you just call it American intelligence? Sports Illustrated. AI. AI. American intelligence. It's the Gulf of American intelligence. No, it's American intelligence. That's what it is from now on. I'm surprised he hasn't changed it to that. Yeah, well, he hasn't thought of it. Now that he's going to be listening to our show today, um he's going to go, you know what? Those boys have a Yeah. I heard from that Ed Parcaut that I should name this American intelligence.

Yeah. That Ed had a good idea. I think I want to follow it. All right, that's all I have. It's a very light day, unfortunately. Nothing major. National diesel average is $6. 52. When I filled up the other day, I paid at Costco at diesel in Riverbank was 735. Teamly Christmas. It was $251 to fill up my tank. 251? Yes. I haven't gone past 182. Well, congratulations. Well, congratulations, but I, you know, My fastest I've ever gone is 120. Yeah, well, the fastest I've gone is 135 on Briggsmore. Um Actually, I take it back. I've flown in planes before. Oh, that's true. So have I. I think it's like 576 mph. Something like that. Yeah. Um that was in a 60 Tornado. Oh my god. Oh, you're so stupid. I was.

I was. All right, that's all I have for today. Yeah, that's all I got too. I I'm looking up for other stuff too. I don't want to drag it on. No, I just want to go over the things that I had for me. It's actually doing a great job. I use Claude to do everything, set it up, and then I actually have it do my actual teleprompter for me now. Yeah? Yeah. Claude does that? Yes, it Well, I told it to do it, so it does it for me. Okay. Yeah. All right, everybody make a great day. We'll be back tomorrow and hopefully this whole Iran thing will be over in what, 6 weeks? Is that how much longer until the election? November 2nd, right? November's Yeah. Well, we're not Oh, we're not in October. We're not in October yet.

We got we got a few more days. We got through the weekend. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow. Bye. Okay, bye.