Oil Over $100 Keeps Mortgage Rates and Inflation in the Danger Zone

Yeah. It was it was Carl. Carl doesn't kind of have Hey, good morning everybody. I had park over with Mike Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. Mike, uh you're a little slow, but I my stuff's coming today to fix that. Hopefully. Is it? I didn't say a little Um you said low, not slow. You're low also. But you know, I can't do anything with that unless I grab out the All right. All right, Max headroom. Yeah. All right, any new numbers today? Yeah. Actually, well, we were wondering yesterday if there's some amazing things are going to happen in the next few days, and here we are in the middle of September, and look at those closings for Stanislaus County, 119. Woohoo. Uh listings increased by about 40 over the over the night, and uh 358 uh pending sales, which I think is a decrease of 20 because look at 119.

We were in the 90s yesterday. Woohoo. So, through the roof. We are cooking with gas. No, we can't. Oh, that's right, different administration. Yeah, different administration. Yeah, we that that oh. 10 year is up again. It is it's it's uh toying with the it's at like 4. 9937. It's up one basis point. The yields are testing the highest level since 2007. How much now? Woo. But it's all about the Fed. It's all about Come on, you can do the song. No trouble. Yeah. Um So, WTI remains over uh over $100 a barrel. Uh the 10 year is really basically at five, which is again, like I said, the highest level it's been since 2007. Uh the the Fed future markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25% hike to uh I think it's tomorrow, right?

Yeah, today's Tuesday. Uh tomorrow and four hikes over the next year. Really? Yeah. I just wish the Broncos could have hiked better yesterday. Uh uh the bond market wants to see a rate rate hike. Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director, said that while he would vote against a rate hike, the White House understands and would respect one. I think the thing is it's not really going to change anything with oil. It's not going to change a lot of stuff by doing the rate hike, but it might calm everything. Cuz Some people's ideas of where we are. Yeah, just like oh, the Fed's on top of it. The new guy knows what he's doing. He's just taking Yeah, he's making a move early. He's making a move even though he doesn't really have to, but he's going to.

Yeah. All right, what else we have? ADP weekly employment data. ADP reported that on average there were 16,250 jobs created per week over the previous four weeks ending August 29th. This would port in this would end like the overall area about 70, you know, the last four weeks about 70,000 jobs are being created over the full month like I just said, and that's stronger than the recent figures I've seen, but still not great. The previous week's figure was revised slightly lower from 12,000 to from 12,250 to 12,000. I can't read numbers today, but when can I? Where did you say the bond market was? Uh the bond market was at 10 years at 4. 9978. Holy And it was at five yesterday, right? Well, it's it's was at five this morning, so Okay, so it's it's just fluctuating a little as usual.

Yeah. Rates are down by like one or two basis points. It's not major because we've already taken the hit. It's already I'm sorry, six basis point. Oh, I'm sorry, 10 basis Oh wait, 15 Dow's down 472. That kind of tells you where the market is right now. I didn't even look at the Dow this morning. There was one more thing that came out today, and it was the Empire State numbers. Okay, so the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which shows the health of the manufacturing sector in the New York region, was reported at 7. 6 for the month of September, which was way below the expectations of 14. 75. Hmm. Uh they asked them what was the problem, and they said Well, they probably correct. No, he didn't say that.

That's all. That was a joke. Yeah, I know it was a joke, but it's probably closer to the truth. Oh no. Uh there's a bunch of, you know, the flock cameras are all all still in the the news about everything. Yeah, I probably should do a little research on that just so I understand what's going on. It's just a camera that it's kind of like our readers, but it's owned by Flock who who keeps the data, and there was actually I read another thing where some police officer went in and searched some data for a family member to find something, and then he just got fired. Oh. Yeah, so that's the problem. The problem is the the misuse of of the information. That that is the problem. That's always a problem.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. It's just big government. I mean We we have small government. Didn't they didn't they didn't that guy write a book about this? Which book? Oh, you know, um 1982 or 84 82 1984 or something. I thought it was 87 or was it 84 or 88? 82 82 Or was it Yeah. 88 88 88 No, mess with you. That was a Buick. Right? Buick 88? I have no idea. You're talking about cars I have no idea about. Oh man, it was it was it was a car. So, we're just waiting on what the Fed's going to say tomorrow. Is it is it really changing anything? No, people are still writing offers. People are still trying to get properties because they're like, you know what? I can probably ask the seller for ridiculous. Yeah.

Yeah, I received two offers last night. So, it's telling you people people who need to buy are still going to buy. They'll refi later when things calm down. Even though we've been saying that for five years. Well, yeah, but but we're going to be right eventually. Well, I mean we we had issues. This is something different. This is not a pipeline being shut down. This is too straight the Straight of Hormuz, and then now the other thing with the pipeline being blown up. It's going to keep the fuel over a certain price. The question really is is it true what Trump said about how this will be over after the midterms? Who knows? Right? That's truly we have no idea. Well, he's probably fairly confident it's not going to be over before.

Well, what he means is that they're waiting for that because they're waiting for him. But the real question is why isn't everybody in the world after the hoodies and the other people for blowing up pipelines and all the other stuff? Yeah. Yeah, I understand they got quite a bit of help from China. Um last night I was reading something that there there was some Chinese help with the hoodies to be able to blow up all that crap. So, let's see what happens soon. WW11 finally, you know, as as Elon would say. WW11 Yeah, remember when she was making that speech and she was saying the atrocities have not been seen like this since WW11, World War 11? Oh, World War II. Yeah, she's just reading stuff. Yeah, I think so.

All right, um that's all I have for today. Yeah, that's all I got. You know, I did Not not a bunch. More tomorrow. I did hear something this morning. There's an agent out of Turlock that has a podcast or, you know, basically just made a reel, and he's saying he's seeing offers on his listings that have a deceleration clause or a, you know, what he was saying is that he's seeing offers that say every day your seller does not accept my offer, I'll decrease our offer by $2,500. I I logically I'm thinking okay, um we're not going to accept your offer. Go away. Okay. Have you seen that yourself? No, I've never even heard of it. I mean I remember clauses where you you said um when the appraisals weren't coming in, but the buyer would say I'm willing to pay $10,000 over appraised value not to exceed the purchase the original purchase price.

And this he's saying, you know, for every day you don't accept our offers, we're just going to we're going to decrease our offer by 2,500. Well, that doesn't seem like a very smart tactic. Oh wait, I'm going to wait until I'm going to wait a month, and then I'll take that 10 grand or 11 grand less um because I just like you. You know, sell to somebody else. Yeah, so did you know that we probably know this? Flock safety is all over the place, right? Reports have have it in more than 6,000 communities and includes private neighborhoods and HOAs. Earlier this month, a camera in a Georgia HOA installed without resident approval got sawed down. Yeah. Who sawed? Uh question I thought probably wasn't on a pipe then if it was, you know, maybe maybe they did uh yeah.

On a 2x4. So, what they're saying is you should if you're buying in a community, ask they before you do anything, make sure that you find out if there is a flock camera in there, you know, because it's going to watch everything. Yeah. The worst part is who has access to that information. That is really the question. Right? And what are they going to use it for? They would store it forever. Now they only store it for seven days unless there is uh some police action or something. Yeah. But before they never got rid of it. That's the problem. They can search all the way back. Now they changed their their their guidelines. Really? Yeah. The question is do we have there's only like four, I think, in our area.

Flock? Yeah. What the flock? I didn't know we had any. I know the Bethesda Police Department doesn't use flock. They use something else. No, correct. That's their own Motorola. Uh but there are it's private people who have flock. Yeah. Like grocery stores and Yeah. Yeah, like I think Walmart has one. It's those little units that you see, hey, you're being watched. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, they watch you everywhere. Yeah, well, I'm okay with certain places. I bet the Chicken Ranch has some. I bet you they don't. Really? Why would a Chicken Ranch have any? No, the Chicken Ranch. I know. Why would the Chicken Ranch have any? You're catching cheating. Oh, they have their own. They don't have flock. They have their own.

They probably call it something with a feather. Okay, we're moving on before you get in trouble. All right, everybody make a great day. Hopefully we gave you some information, but we haven't seen any offers with you reading ridiculous stuff. I haven't seen that, but but Not lately. I I don't doubt I don't doubt this agent um Well, I've seen some offers where you were just talking about where it's like way under ask ask what the listing was originally, and then asking for 3% also. Yeah, that's what I just got. Yeah, it's funny how people are like, okay, instead of adding it on to the purchase price, we're just going to just say, hey, give me everything in the kitchen sink. Yeah. Yep. And she had she had actually talked to me the the potential selling agent, and I said, you know, I would write your best offer.

That's going to stand the best possibility of getting the the short sale bank to approve. Um so don't do something stupid, you know. Now we're going to do something stupid. Of course. All right. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow. Bye. Bye.