Oil Shipping Disruptions Keep Inflation and Mortgage Markets on Edge

increased. So, it's all picking up. Good morning, everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut here with Mike Kelly, Real Estate Jerky Daily. Today today is Monday. Yes, it is. And next Monday, I won't be here all the way through Thursday. So, so Mike will have to do it from his studio. Yeah, a studio that's non-existent. But, you know, one day, one day over the rainbow. All right, you want to do we were going to Yeah, we can just do myself real quick. Well, I also have uh national numbers too today. Do you want to start with national? Okay. Uh we are what do you think, up or down? It's probably up because we've been down for 2 weeks. Have we been down for 2 weeks? Yeah. How do we know? We weren't here one of those.

All right, inventory is 871,063 which is up 5,354. Wow. Median list price is down $3,665 to 445. Remember when we used to be up by like 100,000 on in a week? You mean talking about inventory or prices? Inventory. Oh. Median days on the market still is unchanged at 63. Price reductions up another 0. 23 so a quarter. We're at a quarter of a percent. 41 41. 68. Wow. That's a lot of reduction. I I let's see. In 9 weeks, we will be at 50%. You're being Yeah. That is correct. That's awesome. Well, you know what? We're kind of up in Stanislaus County too. Let me show you. Look right there, 762 active listings. I think that's down cuz I thought we were at 770 last week because um Oh, let me go back and watch it.

Okay, go back and watch it. 384 pending sales. We're getting close to those 400s we were in the first quarter. Um that's up I think six and nope, five. And then 105 closings and uh the end of last week, we were at 79. All right, so So, that's a lot of closings. Well, it's just getting close Well, it's really not, but But Well, it's true. This is the beginning of Is this the beginning of the third week of It's just sounds good. uh Ramadan um August? I don't know. Yeah, it's the third week of August. We're at 105. We've been in the 220s, 260s. We were much higher that in March and April. But at least things are active. Okay. Yeah, I mean it's not stagnant. It's yeah. Except for certain places. All right, so Dow's down 205.

Oh, why why why? 10-year up 4. 706. That's up two basis points. Rates are worse by eight basis points this morning. Yes, that bond keeps going up. I'm sorry, the yeah, the 10-year Yeah, the 10-year. which is a bond. We're at what? 4. 70 something. Is that the highest it's been all year? That's That's the highest it's been in a long time. Long long long long time. Uh three things are driving the show or what we're going to talk about. US Iran ceasefire officially expires today. I didn't even know it was going on. He still got that You got to stop wearing that shirt. I didn't know it was going on. This isn't the same shirt. I don't care. It's Is it too busy? Oh, it looks like it's it's all moving.

Am I going to give you the epilepsies? Alien studio. Uh mortgage bonds are sitting on support level they can't afford to lose and the national inventory ticked higher again year over year just a little bit. Uh the 30-year fixed rate they're saying is at 6. 71% Fannie and Freddie, not me. Yeah. Uh so yeah, so that's what we're looking at. Uh what else we got? What did you say the what did you say the median price was in the fours still? Okay. Sorry. 445. Oh, it's down. But according to your people, NAR, it's 434,100. Oh. They probably missed two two closings. So, um I there was 20 million barrels flowing through the strait each day. Did you know that before the war? How many's going through now?

Look at my cup is. Wow. It's translucent. My cup is Here's a wonderful brewery place um in Colorado. Cerebral brewery. Yeah, for some reason on this side, I can't see you very well. All right, so now we're at it slowed to 9 million, but flow has been made up with pipelines through the Red Sea. The estimated shortfall shortfall is about 5. 5 million barrels per day. So, that's that's better than it was. That's still a long song. Excuse me? 5. 5 million barrels of oil on the wall. I don't know. Okay, yeah, move on. Shipping insurance and shipping costs are still elevator on the barrels to get through. Softer global demand especially from China. Uh that's keeping it at 83 from being, you know, instead of 95.

That's why we're not at 95 right now. So, we're down 12. Well, we're down in where we could be worse and so that's what they're talking about. All right, so what came uh national NHAB, right? The National Association of Yes, it came It's report came out today and let me go over to it. Uh I have it over here, but just easier. The index increased by one point from last month's revised figure of 34 to 35. That is how bad the home builders are having it right now. Current sales increased two points to 39. Sales expectation remained at 43 and buyer traffic was unchanged at 23. What number do they need just to have a decent day? Well, over 50, right? Well, they need at least 50 to have a decent day.

And a really good day is once we start going way higher than that like 60. There So, that's why they're just barely building out there enough to keep going and and keep their people employed. Right. Yeah. Just to keep their people employed. Yeah, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey which shows the health of the manufacturing sector in New York region just went away because of Minami. I'm just kidding. Uh was reported at 20. 6 for the month of August well above expectations of 11 and last month's reading of 15. 60. So, that's doing pretty well there. Must be an upstate New York not in New York New York. Not in New York New York. Yeah, that's that best sauce. It's not really. I have no idea. I don't eat paste.

I I do pico. It's like it's like a slightly spicy tomato. It's not good. Okay. Uh this week news we have tomorrow ADP weekly, housing starts and permits, pending home sales, Wednesday's mortgage applications, 20-year auction, Fed minutes, and Thursday is jobless claims. That's about all. And the bonds are trying to stay below the Fibonacci level. That's kind of like what that movie was National Treasure. National Treasure. Yeah. With Nicolas Cage, huh? No, I'm What was the one where he went to the He was in France? That was the other guy. Oh, The Da Vinci Code with Tom Hanks. Yeah. The Da Vinci Code. It's a good book. It was a horrible movie, I thought. But that book had so much information in it and so much going on.

It's hard to make it be a 16-hour movie. They should have made it a miniseries. There you go. Or or or one of those things on Netflix. Oh, yeah, one of those Uh did you see that Zillow cut a bunch of jobs? Really? Yes. Uh there's estimates must be off. California homeowners premiums are up 84% between 2020 and March 2026. Average deductible up deductible went up 18 so they went from 1,813 to 2,553. Fair plan now covers 5% of single-family homes statewide in California. Up from 1. 5 5% up from 1. 5% in 2020. 5% Wow. They shouldn't have let LA burn. It's has nothing to do with that. Oh, it has a little bit to do with that. Yeah, that's you got to have water to stop the stuff. HousingWire uh broke a story on Zillow layoffs more than 500 people about 7% of the company called an organizational restructuring.

Now, with a week old in the LinkedIn post, they're still coming. Uh there was a So, it's not great out there. So, if we don't have volume, I don't care who you are whether you are, you know, one of those companies online or whatever, if you don't have the volume, you're not going to make the money. Right. Yeah. Yeah, and we don't have the volume. We don't have the listings. We don't have the inventory. People aren't doing anything. They're They're worried about rates. They're worried about a bunch of stuff. Their jobs, everything. And they shouldn't be, but that you can't You can lead a horse to water, but you can't drown them. Yeah, they they fight. Saw a bunch of deer this weekend. Did you?

Oh, deer, look at that. Um you know, one thing about inventory is or being a realtor is nobody knows if you're out there. So, you could retire, but you have no retirement. Talking to Betsy and she's got like 26 listings. Oh, yeah. That's an average for her. That's yeah. Betsy's Betsy's an anomaly. If she's like you, she's been in the area forever and everybody knows her, but she likes to work. I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. She Everybody likes to work. Yeah. Everybody love Betsy, too. Yeah, she's She's a go-getter except that one time when she was trying to collect the hotel soaps and shampoos for the homeless. This is kind of like stealing. No, they give them to you anyway if you don't use them.

I never use them, so. Oh, I always open up the bottles and just pour whole contents into my palm as soon as they get there. Do you? This is free. Oh, that what it is? Oh, I'm going to take a shower. I'm going to take a couple extras cuz it's free. The Hilton You have to because their water's so bad. Yeah, the Hiltons used to have this really good smelling soap and shampoo and they switched it out recently and I don't like it. Oh, they just don't like That's just like they we've got Mike Kelly coming too much. We got to change this. He says it's soap. Yeah. This nice stuff. Oh, so you don't know this, but uh last weekend our show got interrupted halfway through. Yeah, I do know it cuz the same person that contacted you contacted me and I said, oh, I'll have to talk to our producer and see what happened.

It wasn't the So, I called Mary Matthews our rep now who I've always wanted to have and she picked up the phone right as I called once I got off cuz I knew at 12:30 and I called and they were like She's like, I'm on it. Now, our other person Aaron wouldn't be wouldn't answer the phone or anything. So, she's going back six So, I think it's happened multiple times over the last 6 weeks. They changed the traffic thing they did and ever since then she thinks they've had problems. So, we're going to get some credits and everything else. Oh, cool. I like credits. Yeah, and an extra day. We are now giving you Thursday. No, it's you know, right? We have Saturday, replay on Sunday. Give me um Tuesday night, Wednesday night.

Yeah. Anyway, that's what happened. It's just nice to know we have someone who listens. We have a bunch of people. She wasn't the only person. I had a lot of people I thought you had a full hour show, not a half hour show. Yeah, they're trying to fix it. Sorry. That's what happens when you don't have real people working to handle the stuff on Saturdays. Oh, my god. Anyway, all right, that's it. I go out no more. Love you all, mean it. Thanks for listening. Make it a great day. Be back tomorrow. Remember wherever you are, there you are or you're not. Bye. Bye.