Real Estate Jerky Daily September Rates, Listings, and Buyer Reality

So you're going to have to pay my gas? Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parco with Mike Kelly Real Estate Turkey Daily. It is Tuesday. We weren't here yesterday because you were at a golf tournament and by the time I got done dealing with all this vibe coding stuff I was dealing with and other stuff. You were just like, I ain't doing it. No, it was already too late and I was like, okay, we'll just and there wasn't much news yesterday. Yeah. Um yeah, what was yesterday's news? I don't know. You haven't told me yet. You got jolts today, right? Yeah, but we also I mean we also had I could have done the uh inventory. Oh yeah. Yeah. The national? Yeah. Yeah, I'm going away. I'm going away. I mean yesterday was all about um Fannie Mae home price expectation survey.

Fannie Mae released their home price their survey. I can't keep saying this. Yeah. Uh top 150 housing market economists. So the top I didn't know there was 150 housing market economists out there. And they where they get their forecast of the median forecast for 2026 is a 2. 6% increase which um is pretty close to what we forecasted for the past. Yeah. And the impact at a $500,000 home would be a $13,000 appreciation. My whole thing is the fact that they still think things are going to appreciate. That's the best part. Well, because they are. Well, I'm just saying that is the best part. Uh and so you want to go with your local number? Sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure. This is week ending well, this is through August 31st um actually through today.

You got three more days. Hey real tours, you got three more days to have your assistant report your pending your sold uh transaction. I report my own. I'm not that lazy. Um Well, you only do one so it's not that hard to report. Yeah, it's not that hard thing to do. Huh. Thanks for that. 272 closings. So we'll probably get around 285, maybe 290 by uh Thursday. 364 pending sales. Those are up a little bit and woohoo, look at that 781 active listings in Stanislaus. That's increasing and not going down. Yeah, it's been increasing. What are you going to do? Uh some homes are staying on the market just a little bit longer. I know that statewide we were at 40. 1% or 40. 1 days. No. That was last. That was two weeks ago.

That was two weeks ago. Cuz I wasn't here the last week. Yeah. And you didn't talk about it on Friday. So we'll talk about it when this next tomorrow. Well, we talked about it last Friday. Did we? Yeah. Okay. Well, you'll bring it up again tomorrow. I'll bring it up again tomorrow. Uh so national nationwide nationwide nationwide we inventory went up another 4,980. That's 879,764. We are pandemic uh we are uh great recession levels, I tell you. Yeah, we are. My gosh. Not at all. Nowehere close. We're not even to normal numbers on inventory nationwide. The median list price went down another 2,500 to 440,000. Median days on the market. What do you think they are now? Probably 42. 70 days. That is correct.

It's up seven more days. So was that 63 went up seven days. Now it's 70. Price reductions. Oh. 42. 10. What did I say? We'd be above 42 this week and we are. And we are. And it's going to continue to increase just because that's where the market is right now. People are putting their house on the market and some people like, I really need to sell and so they're dropping the prices. I'm not saying that's happening here in California, but that is happening in Texas and Florida. Yep. I talked to so many people last week from different parts of the country. Canada is really bad too. Cannabis Canada is really Cannabis is bad for you too. Uh Canada is really bad um because of what has happened and how their increase went way up so much and then now all those people own those homes.

The pandemic is what increased all their prices up there kind of like us but they had major major like double prices. Cannabis. Yeah. Mm. And so they're actually having trouble because the values are coming down. And they have portable mortgages. I talked to somebody about it and they're like, yeah, but we never use them. Yeah. Because uh you can't really do anything with them because you can't take a 250 and put it on a million dollar home because you got to make the difference up. Well, you can if you just have a heck of a ton of money. On a right and that's because I keep seeing it every. Trump said they're going to do portable mortgages. No, he did not. Well, they just don't make any sense whatsoever.

It's just like an assumable mortgage. So you're going to assume a VA or you're going to assume an FHA mortgage but the equity is 450,000. How many people buying that type of home are going to throw $450,000 down? I don't know, but I ran into some people also at the event and they were uh in they were buying doing that kind of, you know foreclosure stuff where the, you know distressed properties and all that. And I was talking to them because they were asking about they asked at the end of the thing they asked us about uh direct mail and then one guy supposedly the guru in marketing and everything up there said, yeah, you should do it but you're going to have to at least send out a thousand pieces.

And um I go, excuse me, can I comment on that because there is no way you can do it with a thousand pieces. You need 10,000 pieces because you're only going to get a a quarter of 1% response if you're lucky. And that's just not how that works. And and the guy was saying use envelopes and handwritten envelopes. Well, those are fake handwritten envelopes and people know that. And most people just get it and throw it away. I go, well, don't even do that anymore. They just throw it away. I tell I said, have you thought about postcards? Cuz that's all I use in the marketing we did in the past. And he's like, uh no. I go, cuz you have to look at it as you're throwing it away. You don't have to open it.

Right. And if you're somebody in distress, they go they respond better to letters because it's personal. You don't have to put on there we're buying we want to buy your distressed property. We don't want to buy your your house that's in whatever. You can just say, hey, we're off whatever. Those postcards do work and it's cheaper. You can send out three postcards for every one letter. Anyway, so the guy didn't like me. Well, you know But the other kid was like he went to me later and he's like, hey, talk to me about then he was telling me about a VA that they're you know this lady's been behind on two years and they're helping her. I said, just assume the loan. He's a what? I go, just talk to the lender and assume it and cuz they're going to do a wrap.

I go, you do a wrap, they're going to call that note. They're going to call a due. Yeah, especially that far into it. And so uh he's like, oh, didn't know you could do that. Yeah, anybody can uh assume a VA. Yep. Yep. Yep, yep, yep, yep. We got one too that you can assume. I know you do. I can't believe you haven't found anybody for that yet. Nobody wants a 425 on a 413. It's funny like that. Yeah. Yeah. But I mean you can get into the home pretty inexpensively. You start taking over payments. That's right and it's not a bad thing. Um how long can mortgage spreads hold off the 7% rates? 7% rates, what are you talking about, Ed? Where's the where's the rate uh information right now? Well, we have 10 year sitting at 4.

768 which is up another one basis point. Rates are worse by three basis points. That 10 year just keeps going and it's and a lot of that stuff is selling off because of the fact that rates are continuing to go up because of the war and other stuff. And they're actually talking about doing a um a raise in short-term interest rates in September. Oh, are they? Yes, they are. And the market will go, thank you. Thank you for taking the proper step to make sure We're reacting. I tell you, I just cold and hot weather is just killing me. Last week I was in 108 in humidity and today I'm in what 60s? Whatever it was this morning, 50 started probably. Yeah, 60° right now. All right, so the other thing came out today is ISM manufacturing index which does what?

Measures the health of the manufacturing industry in the US. Are they healthy? Uh they decreased to 54. 6 in the month of August which was above the expectations of 55 which was below the expectations of 55. 2. They got that number. Whoever puts this stuff in there for these people got it wrong. Well, they don't read it correctly. Or they're just in a hurry. The labor the labor department also came out today with jolts. That is correct. Um which is what is jolts? Just overbroke report. What's the job? Just over the line. Just overbroke. All right, so the jolts report which tracks a monthly change in job openings was reported at 7. 271 million for the month of July. That is below the expectations of 7.

3 million but more than last month's revised report is 7. 182 million. I remember three years ago this was in 9 million and you know they had all these job openings and people still weren't getting jobs. They were leaving the workforce. And one of our biggest problems in the United States is that we have 50% or more of our people work for the government. And that would be state government or federal government. That's way too many. Way too many. Hello Josh. Um Get it guys. Uh and so it's it's really hard out there to do anything when you have that many people on the government tit. You called it the tit? Yeah, because it's the people like, but that's where you're supposed to. No, that's you were your government's not supposed to have that many workers.

They're not. The smaller government, better government. But who's going to pay for all our services? How about this? We'll pay for all services that were in the constitution. Mm. That would that would be a decrease in paying for services. Well, the problem is we spent all this money on uh welfare type of services, right? All those things that help everybody. You know what? If you want to do anything, give everybody free health care and then everything else you got to go get your own job for. Well, and I hear California um this morning at about 12:30 passed another billion dollars to go towards the uh slow speed rail. Um that's a that's a good use of money. I wonder what what NGO that's actually going to go help.

Well, they just I don't know because they found stuff where he was talking about how it it's not a joke but basically I can't believe this got passed and this was like seven year 10 years ago and this and they still pushing. Yeah, he's like, I'm on my way out and I won't get another job. So let's pass some high-speed rail stuff so I can uh have steal from that. Well, not steal. I'm going to give it to an NGO who's going to give it to another NGO who's going to give it to another NGO and then Bingo was his name. Yep. Yeah, it's sad, sad, sad. What about the fact that uh he signed the bill to uh not be able to go after scammers? So every scammer out there come to California. Yeah. Whoa guys, easy with the common sense ideas.

That's hilarious. I'm just saying the whole thing about the um that's hilarious. The can't go after scammers. So more scammers are going to come to California and do more scamming of the government and all this stuff. AB 29 64. I told it to find it and write it but I didn't look at it. Yeah, stop Nick Shirley act. Yeah, well, yeah, that one that he signed into law. $4,000 fine for um pointing out fraudsters. Bill 2624 on August 22nd officially the privacy for immigration support services. No, that's not it. That's not the one I was looking at. You wrong. Well, that's the one I was thinking of. Yeah, but that's uh that's for privacy for immigration support services providers. No. Well, pointing out the fraud that all that all that fraud that's happening in California and Oh, you're right.

Damages start at 4,000 up to 10,000 fine and a year in jail with violent intent and a felony if someone hurt critics led by whatever. Stop yeah, you're right. Knock Shirley act. It's nice how they call these names certain things that has nothing to do with the bill. Right. Right. It's disgusting. Governor office says opposite. The bill has nothing to do with fraud. It's about doxing and threats. There are carve out for journalists under state evidence law. It's BS. Yeah, you're lying. Yeah. You're lying to me and it's making me mad. So you guys better shut up cuz I'm going to be mad. So uh I think last week it was uh X's safety team found a bot farm of about 200,000 suspected Chinese inauthenticated accounts.

Inside of those two those accounts were posting specific about American data centers, the AI data centers. And then and to drive they say they drive up electrical bills and strain the grid and plus AI generated cartoons of data center owners getting rich off the public expense. Uh the names were like Thomas Jackson, Patricia Robertson. They look totally American. Um that's be careful. Stop getting your news from social media. Right. Um or if you're going to do it, do a little research on it because they're using our free speech against us to get us to fight against each other so that they can do this stuff because they don't want us to have AI data centers. They want to have all that stuff. They The Chinese want to have all that.

They don't want us to have it cuz that's how they stay in power before we we just beat up on each other instead of understanding the stuff. True. Truth. Truth is social. Uh yes, subscribe to a good newsletter or something. Here's why we care. Modesto is in the middle of this exact fight. North Point Development has been lobbying the council about a data center at the old FMN FMC plant on Graphics Drive off 99. A petition against it passed 1,700 signatures in under a week. Residents packed the August 11th council meeting. Patterson already passed a 45-day moratorium and a MID board member floated charging data centers triple the normal electrical rate. They're supposed to pay their own electricity.

They're supposed to pay for all their own water. They're supposed to do all that. The problem is is there's too much wrong information out there about these things and it needs to stop. Well, and does their water usage create a shortage for other customers? Well, you know, if you want and the almond people are going to hate me, if you want more water, stop the almond farmers. Yeah. The thing is acreage, you know, a housing tract uses the same water as a farm uses for the same on certain crops and certain things. So, um there's got to be a way to fix this. Stop doing the fake news. Stop paying for these people to protest for nothing and let's move on. I agree. Let's do it. So, Josh Latres just said, "Hey, let's grab lunch at the Chicken Barn afterwards so we can discuss this.

" Oh, is that because you were complaining about the Chicken Barn the other day? They're horrible. The food is horrible. Well, it used to be So, I worked for Foster Farms when I was a kid in Turlock at the Foster Farms restaurant there. And it was the best chicken and everything. That but it was actually if you worked there, you worked for Foster Farms. People didn't know that. You were under the same umbrella and employment. I left, joined the Navy, came back like coming through town 10 years later, the same manager, the same assistant managers working there because of that. And then they they only had a 25-year lease on all the restaurants. Right. Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah. And when that came due, they were like, "We're done.

We've had enough. " Yeah. Yeah. Well, a lot of things happened through the years with with that particular restaurant and I guess the employees packed up the money and bought it and kept the recipes and it was doing really well. And then they sold it again. And I guess the couple who bought it are very nice, but there doesn't seem to be any track on quality control. They've changed the recipe a little bit. I think they're buying a lesser quality chicken. They're cooking it way too long. It's just horrible. I'm sorry because that used to be like the best thigh sandwich in town. Chicken sandwich. It was the best. It was thighs and it was so barbecue sauce. Everything was perfect. Yummy. Okay, we can beat this to death all day.

I don't I don't want to. I guess one more thing, journal the So, the Wall Street Journal had an article and they were talking about non-banks and how bad it is and how all loans are riskier. The FHA loans coming out of the non-bank lenders is riskier than all the other They were just It's a It was a bullshit article. And everybody was up in arms about it. UWM, everybody was talking about it. So, long story short, we're nowhere close to 2008. And the thing is go back to 2008 when it came to FHA loans after that, right? We had that huge thing. What did the government do? They said, "Hey, all these bad loans, let's shove them under FHA and have you refinance them under FHA and we'll have all this.

" And we did all that. We did tons of And they raised the limits on FHA loans. Everything was like the 600,000 or It was ridiculous. There was a moratorium on that. And then now they're talking about this is bad what's going on, the normal types of loans and the normal types of everything stuff. I don't know. I'm done. And didn't they add the MIP or the PMI on top of the MIP? It's Well, they increased it at the time. Okay. And then it says, "Oh, where it's going to stay with the life of the loan. The only way you can get rid of it is refi out of it to a conventional loan. " You know what today is? Today is 624th episode. Of this? Of this show. Yeah, wow. Not of a radio show, but this show. How many How many with me?

A lot. A lot. All right. Cool. Make it a great day. I'm going to go to Jackson. You go to Jackson and then they're going to Did you know they're going to name the airport in I think it's Tennessee after who just Dolly Parton? Oh. And when I was leaving Texas, I don't know if I told you, but every flag was that. They're going to call it Twin Peaks? No, Trump didn't make Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac public and not government. Nobody is. It's they're making too much money off of them. And if they did, rates would go up on those. Why would that happen, Mike? Why would rates go up on Fannie and Freddie if they were sold to another company and privatized? Because they would be sold to another company and privatized and they would screw it all up.

It's because of the guarantee on there right now, the ratio with the MIP and all that stuff. The government is a great place to have them. I I don't like it, but they work right now. Wasn't that during the Obama administration? What happened is when 2008 happened, those all those were about ready to go under and they had too many Yeah, and so they came in and took them over and put them in receivership and has had them in receivership since. And most administrations like, "We're not going to talk about this because billion We're making billions and billions of dollars with these entities. And I don't see the Myself, yeah, be great, but not if it affects the rate because of them, because of the protection that's in there.

Not that high. You're just crazy. 12, maybe 13. 45. All right, guys. Make it a great day. And if not, suffer. Yeah. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back tomorrow. I hope we gave you some information. All right, bye. Bye, kids.