Strong Appraisals Give Buyers Confidence Even as Rates Move Higher

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parco here at Mykel Real Estate Today. And it is Friday. And we're not here on Monday cuz it is Labor Day and we're not going to labor. It's Friday finally. It's a holiday, huh? Yeah, we're not going to labor. We're not going to labor on that day. Nope. Not going to do it. I'm going to go test drive a Tesla uh Cybertruck on Sunday. Oh, yeah? Yeah. Going to let it drive itself? Yeah, it's going to drive just like my wife's but look like an ugly vehicle. Uglier vehicle. Did you want to go first? You got anything? Oh, yeah. I can go over this real quick. It just, you know, I've got the state stuff too but here here we got I just want to see what's going on for the We closed 19 for the month.

for the first 4 days of September. We closed 19 transactions. We still have 380 pendings. That's pretty cool because yesterday we had 3 like 78. And now we got 787 listings and we only had 386 yesterday. Things are starting to happen to us today. 787 pending, I mean uh listings. Yeah. Active, yeah. That's that's so few. No, it's a ton. It's a lot. Somebody was talking to me the other day, they're a non-realtor and they said I heard I heard Modesto just got all kinds of properties on the market. I said well, there's 787 for the whole county of Stanislaus and they looked at me, is that a lot? No. And Modesto's a little the bigger city in in that area. Well, you should what you should tell them is well, Modesto has 120 of that or whatever the number is, you know.

Yeah. Yeah. I should break it down but I didn't. It was a spur of the moment conversation. Yeah, cuz that includes Turlock, that includes every Stanislaus County area. Yeah. Exactly. All right. Well, let me go over state stuff real quick. So, 456 closed sales per day for the state, down 7. 6%. 458 pending sales per day, down 13. 8% for the week. And 542 listings per day, 15. 2% negative. But we're still sticking at 29 median days on the market and a 41. 4%, which is 0. 4% increase in um reductions of listings to get them sold. Really? Yeah. You might still moving or did I stop? Nope, you're still moving. I just want to see if it was still like it used to be. When you would change the screen and it would like put you on pause.

Oh. Yeah. Somebody must have complained. Was it you? Probably. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. The whole thing went big. I can't How do I get back there? All right, here we go. All right, so rates are worse by 19 basis points this morning. Yay. Yes. Uh the 10-year is flat, 4. 7741 market. It was has been down most of the morning. I'll tell you when it comes back on what it show what it's showing. What it showed? All right, and the reason is so this week we've had uh employment numbers come out very low, extremely low compared to what everybody was expecting. Not today. Today the BLS jobs report showed that there was a gain of 162,000 jobs in the month of August, which was much stronger than expectations of 56,000.

So, it looks like three times the amount. Oh. That's not that is Yeah. Uh employment gains in June and July were revised higher by a combined 55,000. Then employment rate remained at 4. 1% in line with estimates. Average weekly earnings are up 6/10 for the month and 3. 7% year over year. Well, I hope they don't recalculate those numbers like the Biden administration did and by 100,000. They probably will. I mean it's it is the BLS jobs report, which we used to call Bureau of Lying Statistics because it was always wrong. Uh on this report, uh if you look at it, government added 35,000 jobs while private education and health services added 29,000. So, again kind of the same numbers in the other report that showed that a lot of government jobs and a lot of education and health services, which technically could be government jobs.

True. Right? I mean education Oh, it's actually private education. So, there must be all the private schools in New York going uh getting more people. Oh, yeah. Household survey then employment, blah blah blah, the labor Okay, we'll move on. Bottom line, this this is a huge report. Changed everything today. Oh, wow. But it doesn't mean that like you said it's not going to get revised. The other ones though for the last two months were revised up, not down. Right. This is a big number though. That's 100,000. Is it? That's a big number, especially when it's 46,000 more than what they were expecting. That's three times the amount. Yes. All right, so next week Monday's closed, the market's closed.

Tuesday, ADP again. We're going to see how they are going to say. Wednesday's mortgage applications, 10-year auction. Thursday, producer price index, the PPI. Existing home sales, jobless claims. And Friday is CPI. Man, so nice to have them back-to-back again instead of one this week and one next week and blah blah blah. PPI. And then um I was reading I was turned on Fox News this morning and Maria Bartiromo wasn't on there anymore. Found out she was let go because she took internal communication and sent it over to the the White House? Yes, advisors. What she should have just said is just told them. Yeah. That's what they're telling us. Morning Scott. That way there's no uh no evidence. Right.

And so that's again then there was something about, you know, Trump's claim about the uh the 2020 election or whatever. Don't promote that, you know. Again, the statements should be just put out there what is put out there. Let everybody else have The problem is they're controlling the news. And I always thought there was something new, but I didn't realize there was multiple newspapers back in the day and each one leaned one way or the other depending on how the the newsstand was. They'd cut the leg and you know how to lean one way right, lean whatever. And then there was one that just up and down was right in the middle. Well, it depends on where they were selling the paper too. The the headlines would read differently on the same paper.

I saw an article on that where Wall Street Journal had done that. They made it sound like what's going on is a horrible horrible thing in like New York and then in let's say uh Duluth, Minnesota, everything's cool. So. Really? Kind of interesting. Do you even know where Duluth, Minnesota is? It's in Duluth. It's right next to Is it even a real place? Are you making that thing up? It's right next to No, I think that's correct. It's right next to Ocampo. Ocampo? Yeah, over in California. Oh, don't know where that is. No, I'm just teasing. Uh Lodi area. Huh? Oh, Ocampo? Yeah. All right, so that's a long story what we were going about. So, that's I mean that's Friday. There's not much here this today.

Uh but it is rates are moved up a little bit. Don't freak out about them. It's still a great time to buy. As we always say, you get stuff. I had clients who wrote an offer and the seller didn't want to, you know, pay closing costs and they were fighting over 3 grand so they didn't include them. And so we just I went back to them afterwards cuz the lady came to me and said is there any way to put the closing costs in the loan? I said yeah, on a refinance, on a purchase. You put in the purchase price on the purchase. Right. And so I went to the agent and I said hey, can you raise it from this to this? And now that you've agreed on the price that the seller likes and just add the 6,000 now and raise the purchase price and put in there if it doesn't come in, you'll adjust the closing cost.

Let me see. They've been real difficult. Here's Guess what I got this morning? The increase. So, Duluth, Minnesota is just north of Lincoln Park. You just had to do that, didn't you? Yeah, I did. It's on that uh lake. What lake? That lake in Minnesota. No way. Yeah. Gotcha. Right in not far from the Minnesota-Wisconsin line. Wow. So anyway, that was interesting. I bet I bet everybody was happy I found that out. Yeah, they were waiting on pins and needles about that. Yep. Pins and needles. So, the numbers came in, the adjustment came in. Yes. Sweet. What What are you talking about? Oh, I'm just saying that makes everybody happier. She can keep her closing costs. If it doesn't come in, we can adjust it down.

But who's to say it's not going to come in in this market? Right. It's not like they're, you know, people are cutting prices. Doesn't mean that value's going down yet. That's true. And I just had a um an appraisal come back 6 grand over purchase price. How about that? And as is Wow. What What address is that so we can tell your seller? It's not my seller. It's my buyer. Buyer very happy. Yeah, seller wouldn't be. Yeah, it's uncommon for appraisers to come in. I mean we we came in at full price um on the property. So, we came in at their list price. And I think what they what they were trying to do is create a very quick sale cuz they want out of there. They want to go to their new next place a little bit larger.

Yeah, the seller. They got a growing family so they want to be in the bigger home. Yeah. I just helped the clients get into a house, another vet of course cuz that's what I preferred. I I mean I'll help anybody but it just I know the veterans loans. I know them very well so send them my way. Uh but they've been looking for 6 years for a house. Oh, geez. They were just picky. Yeah. Now, I had uh I had a vet buyer a long time ago, looked for 2 years. And as a result, they inherited 100 grand so they were able to get into a price range where there was actually something they liked. How long were they looking? 2 years. Yeah. Yeah, and we were in we were in escrow on a short sale for 8 months and the third mortgage holder um who said they would had verbally said they would accept the $2,500 that they were going to get, came back and said oh no, we need 50 grand.

So, the whole thing just blew up. That's horrible. Yeah. And it was the third time that happened. They had been in escrow three different times. Wow. Yeah. So. All right. All right. I'm trying to do 14 things in one. I know you are cuz you're busy busy guy. No, I just want to send this out cuz it's one of those things you, you know, it's what I used to tell my Send the stuff out that's going to take the longest to get back, then do the other work. Right. Don't do the other work and then send out the thing and then go I'm waiting on it. Yeah, well you could have been waiting on it for a few hours ago if you just did it right. Hey, real quick if you want to move to Jackson, California, I just put a property on the market that is just spectacular.

2,937 square feet, three bedrooms, two and a half baths. That means those are large bedrooms. Um separate living and family, a built-in pool and spa, and a casita area with bar. It's like an overhang thing. It doesn't really look like a uh What are those called that are rounded? What's a casita? It sounds like a casita would be something in Mexico. It just has a Well, it could be. It could be. I bet There's a couple Mexican restaurants there in Jackson. Uh I don't know if they're very good but probably. A lot of people A lot of people like to take their trailers there. Yep, they do. They do, they do. But anyway, asking 599. How many acres? Uh just a three quarter three a third of an acre. So, 0.

62375932. What's the views? Uh beautiful. Little little hilly stuff out the back. And the backyard is The backyard is really nicely landscaped. All dry all dry stuff. What's Jackson's um altitude? I don't know. Is it the same as Twain Harte? Yeah, right about Was it like 2700, 2800? Twain Harte's 3,000. Oh, see close to 2800. Without going over. Without going over so I won the jackpot. Let's see Jackson's elevation. Um and then we can get going. No, I'm just curious. It was just one of those things so people always ask those things. Will I get nosebleeds up there? No. It's not 12,000. You need to get up to about 13,000. Oh, 1200 to 1600 feet. That so that's Sonora. Yeah. Amador County. That tells you All right.

The reason I'm bringing that up cuz I'll tell you the temperature without having to know it. What is it? It's just warm in the summer. Yeah. Which depending on what you want, it's a great place. It's nice. You can get up in the in the trees without having the true winter. Yeah. And then you could drive up 30 minutes to get the real winter when you want it. The snowy stuff. Yes. Yeah. And then I was in Groveland yesterday looking at a piece of property that That's like a totally different place. Totally different place. Um It's like across the other way. Yeah, in Pine Mountain Lake. Pine Mountain Lake HOA area. They got a gate and uh really nice, really nice piece of property. Smaller, two bedroom, one bath.

Um about an acre acre in uh it's a little bit over an acre, but uh nice views. Good. Yep. All right, and like let's move Is that it? You done showing all your properties? That's not all of them. Those are just the ones out of the area. Let's go. Let's do it. Okay. You have anything here new listed? No, not new. I got something coming up though, but I don't talk about those until they're there. Why not? Cuz sometimes they change their mind and rent it out. And then I look kind of stupid. Everybody have a wonderful day. Oh, there's a guy that got laid off by AI, his AI boss in San Francisco. Oh no. Was the AI boss doing too much? No, it's just funny because we have such ridiculous employee laws to be able to have some AI thing lay off somebody in San Francisco.

Well, who are you going to sue? Well, the company. Yeah. I guess new funding just laid off 160 employees in its consumer direct division. Yeah. Yeah. Oh. That's not good. Nope. Well, that's that's the market. We don't have a ton of transactions. We don't have a ton of loans. We can't support all the loan officers who are out there. Yeah. You can't keep them staffed if there's nothing going on. So what a what Here's So my advice to those people, get out. It's What's that movie uh uh that uh Amityville Horror? They're like Yeah, and then they there was uh some show and they're like, if the house is telling me to get out, I'd get out. Oh. I would get out. I'd leave. Yeah. Oh no, I'll I'll I'll make friends with this friend this ghost.

No, thank you. Yeah. Yeah. All right, make it a great day. We'll be back on Tuesday. Yeah, enjoy the three days everyone. We're actually we're still on the radio this weekend, but we won't physically be on this show till Tuesday. All right, make it a great day. Bye. Bye.