Walmart Sales Signal Consumer Stress While Housing Values Hold Up

Yeah. Nothing worse working for your dad or family. I did for years. Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Barcoure with Mike Kelly Real Estate Jerky Daily. I decided to wear one of Mike's shirts today. Yeah, it's kind of sparkly. It's not like like yours, but uh you know. Yeah. Well, my my shirts are just representative of my personality. Solids are much better, but um I'm going somewhere warm so I don't want to wear That's all I'm going to say. No more. No one else. Yeah. Look at You're going to You're wearing a Tommy Bahama that's nice and cool for the the humidity. Whatever. I'm not saying anything, so shut up. I didn't say a thing. Yeah. Anyway. You want your address? Let me Yeah, can you put that where we are?

What what's going on? Even though it's public record. Well, you have you have people that are still here, so. Yeah, public record. Yeah, stop. Stop it. Stop it some more. Why don't you do something You want me to do something? Oh, look what I did. Yeah, cuz Um, seven Yeah, we we went down two pendings, so they closed. 158 closings. Where were we at yesterday when we were talking? 158, huh? Uh, we weren't here yesterday, so. Oh, that's right. It was Wednesday. Wednesday, I think we were 120 something. I don't remember. So, 158 in closed sales in Stanislaus County. Nah, I don't want to. I might have liked my voice. 784 new listing or not new listings, but listings on the market in Stanislaus. That's pretty cool.

Um, but not cool enough to put us in business, you know. And CVAR, I was at an event yesterday morning and um Patrick was giving the the uh membership numbers and we're at 3,100 and like one members at Central Valley Association. Not really. Does that count Does that count people or does that count companies too? No, that's just um individual licensed realtors. Okay. And that's in Central Valley Association of Realtors, which is um six seven um cities in Stanislaus and San Joaquin County. So, 3,101 there are like Which is How many in Stanislaus County would you say? Percentage wise? Oh, I I would say uh 2,102. No, it it would be probably Yeah, it would probably be a third of that would be in the Stanislaus area and then the San Joaquin.

Yeah, exactly. And then But that counts um primary members and secondary members is is the total number. No, it's not that much. Cuz it's San Joaquin, cuz San Joaquin is Stockton, that's huge. It's a thousand, 1,100. Like appraisers. Like appraisers. Yeah, well or they belong to the Tuolumne County Association of Realtors and they have a secondary membership here. Like my primary is CVAR and I belong to Tuolumne as well. Um, cuz I do business up there sometimes. Understand. I know, but they should just make one. Oh, it would be nice. Well, you could. You could just be CMLS um which is California MLS. What the hell is that? Yeah, but does that go into every county? No, it doesn't. And then And then that's not just one.

It doesn't work. I know, but it's close to one. It's almost. No, it's not. You got to do that one plus another one plus another one. It's mostly one. Okay, sure. All right, let's move on. Yep, let's do it. All right, so yesterday we weren't here and we uh forget what we should have talked about. Do I have today? Oh, that's I'm sorry. What's the Thursdays? Thursdays are Job We had initial jobless claims, which measured individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, fell 6,000 to 206,000. This figure continues to remain muted and underscores a low-hire low-fire environment. Jobless claims. Ooh. Continuing claims, those stayed on benefits after the initial claims, rose by 18,000, 1.

79 million. Oh, shoot. If low-fire and low-hire rate is it just cheaper to keep them? It it's just they don't want to hire anybody. They're being more productive, so they're not firing people. Yeah. Gotcha. So, AI's keeping actually keeping more people now. Coaliti, which was used to be CoreLogic, released their single-family rent report for June showing that rental prices are up 1. 5% year-over-year. This is a slight increase from May, which showed 1. 3%, but still is much lower than this time last year. Whoa. Well, lower's good. Yeah, so and then who cares about Fed minutes? That was so uh Fed Worsh speak this week? No. Okay. Uh, that's Fed minutes from the other day. Uh, cuz well, it was 89.

Let's go to today, shall we? To the today. Why doesn't he do what he's told to do? To the to the to the to the to the to the to the to the change. That's a great song. That's a great album. All right, so Ice Ice Baby, the Ice Home Index. Mortgage rates have been on the rise, no kidding. Ice released their home price index for August showing that home values nationwide on average rose by 0. 21% year-over-year and increased Oh, so that's monthly. I'm sorry, the 0. 21. Ooh. Monthly. Year-over-year they increased by 1. 71%, which is the highest annual growth rate in the last 14 months. Hmm. That's not California. We're we're we're better than that. Using a 3% rate of appreciation on a 500,000 home, a homeowner will gain 15,000 the first year, 80,000 over 5 years, and 171,000 over 10 years.

Just with 3% appreciation. Yeah. Hmm. That's crazy, Ness. Yeah. Yeah. Walmart released their uh second quarter earnings showing more signs of consumer stress. Walmart is the largest grocer and retailer in the country, so it gives some signals regarding what's going on with the with the consumer. Mhm. Sales when removing fuel rose by 2. 6%, but that was beneath the expectation and slowest growth in 6 years. Wow. Did you know they're getting back I think $3 billion in the tariffs? Who is? Walmart. Okay. Yeah. Oh. Yeah. From? The government. Us. The government. No, it's not us. It's the government. That was actually taken from them and it has to get back to them. Uh, news next week. Tuesday, ADP uh weekly employment data.

K. Shiller FHAFHFA appreciation reports. New home sales. Wednesday's mortgage applications. PCE, personal consumption expenditures. Second quarter GDP and durable good orders. Thursday's jobless claims and Friday is uh Worsh's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium. We'll talk we'll talk about. So, what we'll do is we'll take Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday and we'll talk to you about it on Friday. Mhm. All those things. Yeah, cuz we won't be here next week. Yeah. And Mike's here, but he just won't do it. No, we won't. I just don't want to. I guess I could break into your house. You don't need to. You have it on your computer. I do. I don't have a fancy microphone. I don't have fancy headphones. I don't have a microphone.

I don't have headphones. Sounds like a personal problem. It is. Cuz you have an iPhone? Don't I don't want to do it from there. And you can just talk to it. Yeah. Remember when we tried that a couple of times? It was just not that great. Yeah, but that was like Okay. Oh, 100 years ago. Things change and like in the last 6 months what I can do on ChatGPT is drastically different. I was able to relook at how my Cybertruck might be if I bought it and I couldn't have done that 6 months ago or a year ago. I'd have to I'd have to get an artist to do some artist renderings. You have to go get What's What's that guy that did that uh overhauling show? But I don't want it shiny. I want it matte. Foose.

Foose. Yeah, I'd have to hire him and at $2,000 a a picture I I can't do that. A minute. Yeah. He he's quite the artist. Is he? Yeah, he draws those cars beautifully. Does he? Yeah. Does he now? Does he now? Um, what was I going to say? It doesn't matter. Wasn't important. Oh yeah, I'm radioactive. Okay. Old joke from Steve Martin. I thought that was a song. It was a song, I think. Yeah. I see the Dow I just did that again. Dow is up 451 basis points right now and where is the bond And the 10-year is Whoa. 10-year is 4. 73, so it's up three basis points. Rates are worse by 11 basis points this morning. So, don't open their mail. That's hard. Jeez. So, just go get in contract. I you know, I had some people that are really hot to trot and then I um I I actually went to them and I said, "Hey, you know what?

With the income you bring in, this new payment's going to be almost half of your gross income. " Ooh. Yeah. Ouch. And they're like, "Oh, I know. My car payment's going away. " And then they haven't written the offer yet. Oh. That Be careful when you have When you're on a fixed income and if you're getting a payment that just the payment is almost Half your total income? Yeah. Be careful. I mean, that's taxes, insurance, principal and interest, all that. That's Monthly? Be careful. Oh, is there any truth to I read an article yesterday and I didn't have time to go back and research to see make sure, but um Fair Plans fixing to uh jump by 29%? No. That was a while back they talked about that. Okay, so they just talking about it again.

Probably. Okay. I mean, they keep warning. They keep warning. Yeah. It's already bad enough the last time it went up. 29% Yeah. 29% seems huge. It that would be almost a third more. Yeah. Is that because they lost so much money? Well, they haven't paid any claims in LA yet, have they? Well, yeah, but that didn't count cuz most of those didn't have Fair Plan stuff. Yeah, exactly. That's very, very true. Only the ones that backed up to the fire areas. Well, I guess that would have been all that area. The problem with that fire It just it's not a great plan, but uh I just closed one that they were able to take the policy they had. They were buying it from somebody they knew. We'll just leave it at that.

And they were able to transfer the current policy from, you know, they had with State Farm to the new policy. Yeah. Without Wow, without a step up or anything? Nothing. Yeah. That's cool. Yeah, otherwise it would have been Fair Plan. I would imagine that doesn't happen often. No. Okay. Not at all. Well, it's even like my USAA up at my cabin. I first started out like at 800 uh like 8 years ago and now the thing's 2,900, so it's not so bad, but it's still with one policy. It's not Fair Plan though. Yeah. And you're in a Are you on a HD? You're in a high-fire severity zone? Yeah. Uh, anywhere that's uh Stanislaus Forest or any Okay, let's put this way. Sonora North. Yep. Sonora East, Sonora West, and some South.

Yeah. Yeah. Sonora area. Yeah. Downtown Sonora, not necessarily unless you're in a subdivision that backs up to trees. Right. Yeah. You know, if they just go in there and rake that forest. Remember when they were given Yeah, they were given Trump so much shit. Over the coals? Oh, he's saying you got to go in there and rake the forest. Well, they have these big machines that go in and rake their stuff. You have to get all that extra stuff out of there and otherwise they'll burn. Baby burn. Yeah. Excess fuel. All right. That's all I have for today. Well, that's a wonderful Friday. Yes, thank you for being here. It's going to be I think a warm day, so be careful out there. Yeah. What did they say today?

I don't know. Not as bad as when I'm in uh somewhere next week. Yeah. It Oh, it says surface of the sun. Well, it's either that or it's uh Oh, it's only going to be 93 and partly cloudy. Oh, that's not so bad. Top three PGA career earners. Tiger Woods, 120 million. Scottie Scheffler, 119 million. And Rory McIlroy McIlroy or Rory McIlroy. McIlroy, thank you. 116 million. Thank you. 116 million. Yep, so far. Wow. I wish I knew how to play golf well. I I know how to play. I mean, after taxes it's only like 60 It's only 60 million after taxes. It's okay. It's okay still. It's more than what I'm pulling in on the on a couple listings. Yeah, you think? And it's probably more enjoyable. Probably. All right, that's all I have.

Let me go. All right, make it a great day and we will talk to you late next week. Bye. Peace out, brothers and sisters. Bye. We're on the radio tomorrow though. All right, bye. Bye.