Housing Inventory Grows While California Demand Keeps the Market Tight

And now live from our smokehouse studio, it's time for Real Estate Jerky. All your real estate questions answered by our provocatively lean expert hosts, Edward Ed Parcaut, MBA, veteran and president of Lending for Living. We'll give you something to chew on. Real Estate Jerky is on now. Welcome to Real Estate Jerky. We always give you something to chew on. I'm your host, Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and president of Lending for Living. Our studio is located right here in Modesto with our producer, Mike Murray, and we're proud to bring you the latest updates and insights on the real estate market in our community. Thanks to our partnership with iHeartMedia and the station KFBK, you can tune in and never miss an episode by subscribing to our podcast.

Stay up to date by following us on social media. Joining me today is Mike Kelly, Re/Max Executive Realtor. Mike, you ready to get going? I certainly am. You certainly am. Yeah. So, we We usually start off with those national numbers of inventory. Yeah. Are we? Oh, let's see. Do I have those numbers here somewhere? I'm sure I do. Uh I just got so many things going on today except for the numbers. All right, we have 740,006. That means we're up 18,029. From last week. That is the ending of last week. Yeah, not this week. We won't have this week till next week. We're always a week behind. Okay, cool. Oh, it's so confusing. It's like paying your mortgage. I made January's payment. Yeah, but that was for December.

Okay, now you want to explain you have to pay You always You got to accrue interest to pay it. Right. And it's not like rent where you have to pay to move into a place first before you step into a place. With With a mortgage, you get to move in on the first. Your first payment's not usually due for the 45 days, and you have to accrue that interest to pay it. What really confuses people is when you're doing a refinance and they're going, why am I paying this other interest? I already paid that payment. Well, that payment was for last month's interest, not the current month interest that's coming on the loan. And then you don't make a payment for up to 45 days. Yeah. Correct. You know, and then people are totally confused, but you can't just You can't prepay interest that hasn't accrued.

Doesn't work that way. It's just It's just an anomaly. It's just the way it works. It's It's how interest works. Yep. It's like you get open up a savings account and they pay you nothing of interest and you get no interest added. Well, don't you get 0. 002%? It depends on where it's at. They're all over the place. The higher the interest rates is, the higher the money you make on your savings account. This is true. And that's, you know. All right, what else? So, the median price, they're saying nationwide is 445,000. The average median days on the market is 56 days, which is down 7 days. And price reductions are across the way. This is from Altos. We're talking about the national national numbers.

There's 34. 65% in price reductions. That's up about 0. 33% versus what they had last time. So, on average, we normally I would see in the past about 33%. So, we're not that far off from it. But it's funny how just little increases can be such a huge increase in numbers. I mean, like it's 33% higher. That sounds so much worse. Depending on the numbers that you're you're adding the 33% to. Is that how that works? I think. It's kind of like interest. But if you go to So, NAR put out also existing home sales this week, and they're saying the median home price is 408, so 408,800. But you know what the difference is? Altos is only Which we get the nationwide number at, that's only single-family home.

Oh, and NAR is everything. There is Well, not Well, single-family homes, condos, multifamily up to one to four units, kind of things. Right. And that's the difference. So, you take those out, that's where you're seeing the big difference. And they're saying that the 30-year fixed rate from Freddie Mac ending last week is 6. 3%, 6. 30%, which is down from 6. 37%. Which what people don't understand is prior to going to war, we were, you know, right about 6 and 1/8. Okay. Yeah, so we're not super off, but we're we're better than we were. More better. More better. I like that. I feel like I'm off today. It's like something's wrong with me today. Yeah, you sound fine. No, I'm just saying in general.

Yeah, I'm a little I mean, it is Saturday. How was the kickoff? Didn't you have to do Love Modesto this morning before you came in? Yeah, yeah. The weather actually cooperated a little bit, and I I launched the T- The T-shirts went further than they did last year. But they didn't hurt as bad, right? Cuz they weren't wet. I didn't I didn't soak them in water. I forgot to do that. Yeah, nothing nothing more enjoyable than getting hit in the face with a wet T-shirt being launched out of a T-shirt launcher. Okay, I was thinking something else. Yeah, I know. You're listening to Real Estate Jerky. I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor at Lending for Living alongside Re/Max Executive Realtor Mike Kelly.

Yeah, we got to keep it clean here, people. Well, kind of, kind of. So, you want to hear some state numbers? Might as well. Was there anything else you wanted to add about any national stuff you know, or do you want to go right into the state? No, you know the one thing, and we've talked We talked about it last Saturday, and then we'll talk about it today too. And that's the people that are saying, oh my gosh, so many people are There's a large percentage of reductions, price reductions going on. And it's really not that much larger or even larger than what is normal in a normal market. Right. The 34. 65% is on average. Yeah, there are sellers who just think, yeah, my house is better. And so they put their toe in the in the market and see what the temperature's like.

And then after about Sometimes, if you're smart, after two weeks, you reduce your price so you can get your home sold. And if you're not that smart, you stay the course, and eight months later, you reduce below what you probably could have sold it for Correct. in the first place. So, our our California numbers were hanging out at 92,135 homes for sale in California, which Correct. there are more realtors than that. So, someone's going hungry. Well, I can tell you that. I mean, think about the loan side because we average What did we say? That was What did you just say? Local 92,135. That's the state. That state number. But also, since you brought up state, I want to add something that we're going to go more in depth in later, but they were talking about that the Public Policy Institute of California analysis found that the state added 677,000 housing units over the last six-year period in California.

That's new homes, right? But So, a little over 100,000 a year. And we only grew by 39,000 residents because we, you know, lost so many people. But housing is still tight, and they're saying how can that be? And if you look at that, that's only like 100,000 homes a year, and you figure 30% of those each year are going to be affordable housing, which is rental housings. So, we're not adding housing for people to buy. And we need to have three, four times that in order to get caught anywhere to stay what we need and eventually get caught up if we ever get caught up. Right. Yeah. That's the only way That's the only way you can bring prices down a little bit is by increasing the supply. It's just economics 101, isn't it?

Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, we'll see. So, what's the local stuff? Our local stuff. Now, you got to remember we have like 1,400 realtors that are active in Stanislaus County, and we have They have 679 homes to choose from for their buyers now. That's all price ranges from, you know. And then some of those price ranges, there's not much in. Exactly. Like, well The most important price range, right? From what is that, 400 to 550? Yeah, four I would say four to 500,000 is kind of your first-time homebuyer price range now. Used to be 350. I can remember when That used to be 180. Yeah, I was going to say I remember when it was 180. And, you know, we've closed 963 or 254 per month through the year. So, while business The 963 is fairly nice for April through April.

And, you know, we're kind of busy, but it is slim pickings out there, and it will continue to be until we actually start building homes to purchase. And or people putting their houses on the market more to move out of the low interest rates that they have because I mean, not as many people have I think it's 20% of the homes out there have the low interest rates. The low interest rate, exactly. So, I mean, it's not as much as it used to be, but eventually they will need to sell because people You know, life happens. Divorce, death, job transfers, birth, everything, all those things that always happens. And that's what's going to, you know, cause people to buy more. But I see I mean, I'm staying busy because I do stuff all over the place.

And I think you talked about it that the younger agents work everywhere in California. Well, and I as a lender work everywhere because I used to be in San Diego, so I know the area. I know Tuolumne, Calaveras, Sacramento. I know these places because I've been through them. Well, and it's for me, and probably because I'm just an old soul, if I don't know the area very well, I'm more than happy to refer to someone that understands the area. I'm one There's a lot of responsibility as a selling selling agent. You need to go to the area. You need to look at the property. You need to show it to them. And then you're going to have to go back and forth for a couple times. And with gas at almost $8 a gallon for diesel, and was it for gas?

What is regular gas now? $6 or something? Yeah. Well, no, I go to the five-minute car wash or Costco, and it's like 5. 25, 5. 30. When you put in regular? Yeah, I burn regular. Your engine's not going to thank you. What's that pinging? No, it it it calls for regular in my little six-cylinder truck. Get your real estate and mortgage questions answered by the experts at Real Estate Jerky. Contact us at radio@realestatejerky. com. Call me Ed Parcaut directly at 209-404-1915. Reach out to Mike Kelly at 209-968-5633. And we're talking about local We started with national numbers, and we saw that they're up about What was it? 16, 18,000? 18,000, yeah. Yeah, so we're seeing the inventory slowly go up.

But you got to remember that some of these places, they have a lot of inventory where we do not. And that's what you're talking about. California only had about 90,000, and if you talk And if that's probably single-family only, and then 110 for everything else, there's not much on the market. So, it's slim pickings, and people are going why isn't the market moving faster? Well, we just said there's not a lot of houses on the market. If you look local Our local, where we at? 600 homes on the market right now? Yeah, 679. And the market is moving, and the demand is much higher than what we have available. So, there are there are still, you know, those horror stories out there or the buyers are like, I just can't find anything to purchase.

Right, and because they're not really Just because the houses are there doesn't mean they're good houses. It doesn't mean that it's the right house for them. It's just very slim pickings to find, and a lot of people look at them and go look at all the work I'm going to have to do. Exactly, I was just going to say, yeah, I found a place for 400. I might have to put 150 into it. A lot of people don't have that money to do that or And, you know, we don't have flippers flipping like they used to because there's not enough income Yeah, income in it like they used to be. I watch this show now on It's not I don't know what show, HGTV or whatever. It's about flipping in Hawaii. Aloha Flip. I forget what it's called.

Anyway, they're talking You know, they're doing big numbers. I mean, they're purchasing the houses for a million eight, whatever. They spend 300,000. They got 250 in holding costs. And all of a sudden, I'm thinking the people making the money are the ones giving you the money because they're, you know, they're making 10% interest on that stuff. And then they end up making like 80, 90,000 on the house. I'm like going that is so And they And then my wife researched it, and they're like they understate their numbers on TV. Cuz if you look at the house they live in, it's freaking amazing. So, they probably make double what they say they make, but they're saying that they're not making as much on TV, probably for IRS reasons.

But they're not, you know. But when I'm looking at there's people who are That's a lot to risk to make, you know. If you're risking a million dollars to make 100,000, that's a big risk. Right. Cuz you're you're making 10%. It's crazy. But hey, scared money don't make no money, right? I know, but things can happen that you outside of your control, and then you don't make as much. And then that really hurts. You dig into what you thought was your profit. Like they just did one they showed where they're flipping with somebody else because they owned it as the family, and they were supposed to both walk away with 150. Well, then they ended up splitting 150 or 180. Yeah. Yeah, so they walked away with 90 each.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, cuz of, you know, things came up, this issue there, this issue that, and and that's basically what happens. And so you got to be real And the risk today with local here is how much are they going to make after they do all the remodel and make it to what it's worth and what are they paying for it? And then I just When things take off again, we'll see more flippers come out when there's more profit to be made. Right, right. I I get that call all the time. Hey, I'm looking for a piece of property. Well, um good luck. You want 10,000 other Yeah, and and and is there anything on the market right now? No, if anything's on the market right now, it's not flip worthy. Um meaning they've already It's listed for your profit margin.

Yeah, and that's like That's like when people call me and say, I'm Do you have any files that are just sitting there you need help on? No. I don't have files that just sit here. They're either files that can get done or there's files that can't get done, and there's less that can't get done than can get done. Before you start putting money into it. Right. Um so Spencer we're talking about flipping and stuff. Usually they work on the foreclosures that are happening. And we are seeing that uh first quarter filings in 2026, we have 118,727 properties in foreclosure filing nationwide, which is an increase of 26% than what we normally have. Quarter change is up 6%. Uh the 26 annual surge and the 6% sequential build are meaningful, but context matters.

Um there's It's very low compared to pandemic levels and very low compared to what we used to have. Um we used to have on average about 250,000 homes a year go in foreclosure. So the question really is what is this whole thing from? I think it has to do with the fact that one, it's so It costs so much more to fill up your tank. Yes, 100 and, you know, dollar something is the Trump thing, but a lot in California, it's all about the refineries. Um they were saying that diesel were going to go to $8 a gallon just because the refinery's gone. And we need the refineries so we keep the prices down. Yeah. Well, yeah, that's And they they're getting their wish. Uh but, you know, it's I I just There's so many things I want to say but don't want to say.

I'm going to say this first. You're listening to real estate jerky. I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor lending for living alongside REMAX executive realtor Mike Kelly. What I was thinking about is how all this problem is because of our governor and everything they've done. And it They're The problem I have is the fact that, you know, he wrote that book in and it came out in February and it was a bestseller in February. And it was because he spent 1. 5 million of his pack money to buy his own book. 67,000 copies of his own book. Yeah. And that means it was a horrible selling book if 30, you know, what what was sold was, you know, that many copy. And that's the sad thing. And the people go, well, you know, other people have used their money to do the same thing.

Yes, there was Don Jr. 's book in 2019 where that packs like uh 60,000, you know, I mean hardly anything. And then you have Kamala Harris's book that came out and her pack bought 90 some thousand. But no one has done 15 times that till now. Well, you know, Newsom doesn't seem like the brightest bulb, but he sure looks pretty and he speaks well. Well, it's it's to prove that he is so important to everybody. And now you have this issue where you're seeing the lies are come out. You know, the Nick Shirley thing that is happening with that, you know, trying to make it to where you can't find fraud. And and if you come in, take pictures, you do all this stuff and you interview people, they can sue you.

And uh we talked about it earlier this weekend I think even last weekend we had comments on their stuff where people like, well, can you imagine if you're working at a place and you have no idea this is going on, they come in and stick a camera in your face and ask you all these questions? Why is it always the people what ifs instead of what really is happening? They don't do that. They ask you questions and you go away. And the people who are having the problem are the ones who want to pass this law so they can't be found. Well, It's the fraudsters. And the fact that they don't get that They don't I don't know if they don't see it because they're too close to the forest. Um but they're uh The fact that their response to all the fraud is to um penalize the people who are uncovering the fraud is ludicrous.

Well, that's how you keep That tells you that this one party state doesn't work. Virginia just passed a thing where they took it from They had uh There was 10 seats. Nine of them are now going to be Democrat and one Republican instead of five Republican and six Democrat. And how And they were saying that, you know, in order to have it fair, we have to do this. And that is so wrong. I'm so It's not. It's the It's the lies. It's how they are selling. It's They talk out one side of their mouth and it's I'm tired of this whole political issue. I mean, I used to enjoy watching things and and talking about things. I'm just so tired of it now. I just want to be able to keep you out of my business. I want to work.

I want to help people get into homes. I want to do stuff like that. I don't want you in my back pocket telling me what I should be doing and not doing. Right. Ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah. I agree 100%. Um yeah, I love listening to Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. This is what the American people want. No. Have you talked to the American people? No, they don't. They They don't even know who the American people are because they're too much around everything else. No, they haven't. No. So what else? Um What else happened in the world? Well, we had we had uh Mortgage Banker Association came out with their mortgage applications ending last week. And they showed that application volume was up 7. 8%, which is pretty weak for an overall volume of Purchase applications were up 10%.

That's 14% year over year. That's pretty sad. And refinance applications were up 5. 8%, up 52% year over year. And again, that is really sad. People It's up. You got numbers up. Yeah, it's not down. But the problem is it's where the rates were last week and where they are now. It's higher than what people are used to. And, you know, I had so many people reach out to me that were locked because we were protecting them with the peace going on in the world. Rates dropped yet. I'm like, no, not yet. Look at the oil. Oil is still up. Oil is still at $90 a barrel. When we before the war we got into it was 67. So I said, watch the barrel oil. When we're down below 67, then we want to start looking at where you're locked at.

Well, and the peace going on in the world, don't you think the peace going on in the world with two two factions fighting against each other in Iran? One says, yeah, let's let's have peace. One says, no, we're not going to. It's too It's still too volatile to say interest rates are going to come down right away. I'm sorry, what about Republicans and Democrats? Yeah, exactly. That's exactly what it is. I mean, just Hello. I mean, that's the thing. There's no difference. It's just how do, you know, we're we're dealing with so many things and and Trump's approval rating I know we're not a political show, but is 33%, which is the lowest. That means he's got still all the Republicans. Um but, you know, it's the lowest it's been forever.

Well, cuz people are looking at the gas prices, they're looking at the food prices, they're looking at everything and they they're like, when are you going to start looking here? And he has, but this is all part of it. And if you look at how many tankers are coming here to get filled up and you're looking at all the other stuff, oh, it's Nobody sees the 3D chess that's going on. They only see what they're hearing and stop watching. And what they're feeling. Exactly. Well, I I It hurt me to fill up my tank when it was $1. 80 $1. 85 $185 bucks to fill up my tank last week. Yeah. Yeah, and I bought regular and it was 180. I had to take out a small loan. Yeah. And there's a guy standing there, you know, Guido going, hey, we'll do it.

You got I'll do this for 4%. Yeah, that's right. Craziness, craziness, craziness. You know what they're also saying? No. They're saying that LA homes are lingering. I wonder why. Uh there's a little bit high price there in the 5-year high median of 80 days on the market. Yeah. Um so California is such an anomaly from the south to the to the north. Well, the problem with LA has all to do with the wokeness and everything else going on with the housing and how they weren't able to build stuff. And a lot of people are leaving because of the fact that they just don't want to deal with it anymore. Yeah. Yeah, and then you go to another uh city in California that's kind of north, San Francisco, and prices reached $2.

15 million. Is that up? That is up. This is real estate jerky on Power Talk 1360 KFIV. I'm Mike Kelly, REMAX executive realtor here in the Central Valley alongside Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran, mortgage expert and president of Lending for Living. And we were just talking about some numbers, you know, from the south to the north and how more days on the market in LA, but fewer days on the market in San Francisco, high prices in San Francisco. In the Central Valley, we just keep plugging away trying to sell the few listings we do have. Activity is up, demand is up and supply is down. That's a recap. Right. And the pending home sales are sitting around 400 here locally, which is more than we normally have.

Yeah, it shows one or two things are either happening. They're taking They're doing 60-day escrows or they're just more of them are coming on as they go off. That's the real question. And, you know, and there's new homes being sold, but they're not anywhere close to the numbers we need. And, you know, existing home sales are nowhere in the numbers we need to to benefit everybody and have more people buy homes. And it's it's it's harder to find the right home. And I'm doing a ton of VA loans now. And I put it out to everybody. It's like, you know, don't send me all your business. Just send me your VA. That's all I care about. I mean, don't get me wrong. I help everybody, but I'm just saying it's I know them really well and how to do them really well.

And I might I'm actually rewriting my financial freedom book for just veterans now. I have one that's almost finished. It'll be coming out in the next 3 months um for just veterans to understand the difference. Cuz my first book was for first-time homebuyers and everything. And 90% of that worked for veterans. And then the 10% that was the most important wasn't in there. And that's what I'm writing my next book about. So breaks it all down for you. That's very very nice. And I might need to do a pamphlet for real estate agents. Why the Why the VA loan is the best loan out there. Actually, that's not a bad idea. Education to the realtors on VA loans, especially the old folks in the room, including me, um I've kept up with the changes that have happened with VA mortgages.

Um but a lot of realtors have it and they still think, oh, but there's so much there's so higher expenses for the seller. No, they're none. None. None. And the And the pest part because where we live because there's, you know, you're able to do the short form VA which says there's no active pest. They don't You don't have to worry about things like If I can do this on houses up in Tuolumne County that have deck issues that, you know, they do that And that's cuz they don't The inspector, the appraiser doesn't go around poking holes in the deck to see if there's issues on the deck. Now, if they step on the deck to take a picture and you fall through it, uh we might have an issue. That could be a problem.

Yes. And keep in mind the short form if there is active infestation or or um termites, it'll be on the short form as well. But Right, you just You just You just treat them and then they're gone. And then there's no active infest. Cuz I had one up in uh Colfax that they did that. They treated the stuff and then the short form said there's no active pest. And the appraisal came in, no issues at all. And we were like, what the heck? Cuz it was pretty beat up? No, we're just, you know, if we're having If you have If you have to treat for termites and carpenter ants, you would assume they're going to see stuff, but they didn't. Yeah, well, that is a good thing. And people go, well, shouldn't you tell the appraiser?

No. That's not And I That's not your job. Um the appraiser is there to investigate the property on his or her own and do what they're required to do to finish the appraisal. A lot of times the realtor, the selling agent and or the listing agent will never see the appraiser. Right. Right, but the like this These homeowners were 80 um and so of course they had to talk to the appraiser. And I was like, hey, to our clients, it was your benefit that they opened their mouth and said some things. Now you can get it resolved. And that's that's on them. They shouldn't have said anything. But that's, you know, a lot of them are, well, we did this and we did that and this needs to be done. Don't talk to the appraiser.

That's not what your job is. Your job is to open the door and then get out of the way. Yeah. But they're lonely and and it's the first time they've seen another human in their house in probably 15 years. So they're having a really good time. Um we were talking earlier and I just lost the thought. Oh, um in our sales meeting this last Tuesday I was going to say I was not there. Yeah, no, you weren't. I was talking in my head. Um in our sales meeting last Tuesday So today's Saturday Last Tuesday March turned out it was the first month of 2026 that we outsold March of 2025. So we closed 10 million I'm I'm going to come to a conclusion. We closed 10 million more dollars worth of real estate in the month of March in 2026 than we did in 2025.

January and February we are our sales were lower, so things are heating up. March is good. April I think is going to be better. Yeah, we already talk didn't we talk about pending home sales or through the roof? Oh no, we didn't talk about that on this show. We talked about that earlier in the week. Yeah. No. And that's and that's basically I mean there are a few um out of area, meaning out of Stanislaus County in the San Joaquin County or or um uh Tuolumne County sales in there. But it's still real estate sales. What you're saying is real estate's up. Yeah, real estate's up. Pending home sales, uh signed contracts on existing homes via Redfin rose 1. 5% in March, pretty much what you're saying.

Much stronger than the 5/10 expected. Adding to the beat was an upward revision in February which was taken from 1. 8% to 2. 5%. So I think this year in general is better overall because one, we had freaking 80° in February and March which um I was talking to somebody else in Tuolumne County and they were talking about writing offers and they said the biggest problem they have right now is getting people to do inspections because they're two to 3 weeks out because they have not had a winter up there and everything's on the market because usually the market doesn't start picking up until May up there once things thaw out. Well, they haven't had to thaw out because Yeah. Very little snow, if any.

Yeah, so the while sales are coming off low levels, encouraging to see 2 months in a row higher than expected sales, especially since rates rose in March that you know and there's a still pent up demand. So what we're seeing is the best time to sell was the last 3 weeks in April and there's thinking the next week in April, you know by the time this week is over that this is going to be the best April in since in a while. Just kind of like what you were talking about in March was the best March. Yeah. Yeah. And I and I can see that because people are can no longer wait. They have to move. They have to do this. They have to do that. And that's what I'm seeing also. Yeah. You know for so many years the seasonality of uh transactions, you know after the end of March nobody wanted to do anything until the until April 16th.

Um you know I'm not going to mess with anything. I'm doing my taxes right now. I don't want to make a move. I don't want to do anything. And then this year they're like, well let's just get going. That's crazy crazy fast. You're listening to Real Estate Jerky. I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor and lending for a living alongside REMAX executive realtor Mike Kelly. So what do you think in the the reason that is? It's just like I said, pent up demand. People have to do stuff. Um I have people buying who never bought before and they're buying you know and especially with the VA loan what's been nice about they don't have the mortgage insurance on a monthly basis so their payment's so much lower than the FHA payment at the same dollar amount.

Pent up demand. Right. Right. And a lot of people don't don't realize that and uh sellers don't realize that, listing agents don't realize that. You've got a more qualified buyer with a VA loan than you do with an FHA buyer or a conventional buyer simply because their payment is so much higher with that mortgage insurance. Well and also the the VA is guaranteed by the VA. It's not like they're going to fall out. If we run the numbers and it's approved through the DU and everything else, you're pretty much guaranteed that thing's going to close because there's nothing that can come up that's not been looked at. Yeah, unless the house catches fire. Well, that's the only reason most people back out is there's an issue with the house, not anything else.

Did we talk about the uh local growth in California issues about um the city of Modesto's conversation heating up again about local growth what they're going to do? We talked about that earlier, yeah. Oh no, no, no. We did earlier but we did on a different show. The city is weighing where to place housing and industry uh including revived proposals for the Beckwith Triangle regional commercial and business park across from Highway 99 and Vintage Fair Mall. Uh for for this is a kind of a land use decision that moves property values and shapes the next decade of the market here. The question is where are they going to allow us to build? And a lot of people like not in my backyard and all those things and the problem is we need this.

And I know there's a lot of land east but the more east you go, the more you're in Riverbank and you're no longer in Modesto. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Well and the more east you go The further away from the freeway you go. And resources, I mean we do have you've got that um strip where Home Depot is and Save Mart and then you got the Costco and stuff. Five guy yeah, five guys. Um Five guys. We don't have one of them in Modesto. No, we don't and We have three In-N-Outs but no five guys. But keep in mind those tax dollars that you are um spending in Riverbank stay in Riverbank uh and help Riverbank become the city it's đang coming and they're doing real nice with Well, they're smart. They're using the money right and I'm not trying to knock Modesto but you know it just doesn't seem like they do the same thing.

I I have to agree. Maybe they're learning to start to do the same thing but they they haven't done the same thing for a long time and um they they discourage um stuff that could really help us generate tax dollars. Who does? Who does? The city I would say city planning. Um you know I I think people come in and they want tax incentives um to be able to build um those tax incentives while it seems like hey we're giving you this much money. Yeah, but look how much money you're going to raise in taxes to offset it. Um it would have been nice to have Costco on the other side of the street. What do you mean? Yeah, in Modesto instead of Riverbank. Oh, you mean about the new Costco? Yeah. The only thing I like about the new Costco is it has diesel.

Yeah. Oh, it does, doesn't it? Yes, it does and it has four four um stations. Diesel pumps? Four pumps period and there's diesel on each one. Yes. Oh, cool. Yeah, so it's just so much faster than the Modesto only I think two pumps and you know what I mean? It's there's so much better use of land further out but we and I know people don't like the use the other side of the freeway but we really need to. We're only on one side of the freeway with everything and we need to be across the freeway and keep going. I know a lot of the the Wood Colony is going to be upset with me saying that but it's at that point where we need to start doing that. Yeah. Well, in a city that doesn't grow dies. Well, I think about the only other side is off Carpenter where we have the MJC and those things, right?

Yeah. Yeah, off Morse and um I'm done Carpenter. Yeah. Yeah. Goes over to Morse and that's about where it stops. So it's not on a lot of land that's being built on. No, it's we're all on the other side because it's always been that way and you know the freeway is built where it was. Hmm. You know what are you going to do? What are you going to do? Are we there already? Real Estate Jerky on PowerTalk 1360 KFIV is always bringing you the latest information on the real estate industry. And if you have any questions or comments about our discussion today, feel free to email us at radio@realestatejerky. com. In the first block we talked about the national numbers and how we're up 743,006 nationwide in inventory which is up 18,029.

We talked about our local numbers. We talked about the state numbers where we're about 90,000 for all the single family homes on the market. And locally we've sold about 256 homes a month for the last few months Right. which is horrible. And we don't have enough inventory and we've been talking about that and even during the break we were talking to our producer and he was talking about did you guys cover the amount of homes they built in the last 6 years in California which was 677,000 homes we built in the last 6 years in California which is about a little over 100,000 a year. And they're wondering why that's not enough. Well, that's not enough to build us and why do we have affordable housing?

We don't have it and we're missing so I mean so 30% of that 677,000 I guarantee minimally it was rentals and and affordable housing supposedly for rentals. It could be more than that. I it could be 50% in that but the issue is we need to build that many homes a year not in a 6-year period. It will be rentals. You mean 600,000. Yeah, exactly a year. Exactly. We are uh I saw numbers anywhere from 5 to 10 million homes were short nationwide. It's what I and so nobody really knows what that number is. It's kind of like the the immigrant population. Nobody really knows what that number is. It well yeah yeah. Well, I'm just saying that's the same thing. We don't know how many houses we need. We don't know the because we've had such a pent up demand.

We've got people living with other people instead of going out and buying their own stuff and that's a problem. What are you going to do about it? We you know people don't want to move out of their house even though they have multiple people in it because their their payment might be so low because of that low interest rate. Well and we were just discussing uh the direction Modesto probably should go to build and to offer new homes and stuff like that is a direction that the Nimbys don't want to be touched. They want to preserve. It's not Nimbys. It's the it's the Wood Colony and by the way you can send your your your negative email to Mike Kelly realtor. It's mk Mike at mikekellyrealtor. com which is also go to mikekellyrealtor.

com to check out probate and have any questions about probate, he'll help you there. Exactly, yeah. True, true, true. Um yeah and you want to preserve good farmland. We need to preserve good farmland and it it's going to come to a time when it will get swallowed up. Yeah. You know. Should you do it intelligently? Yeah, you probably should. Um The question really is is there better places for housing in Modesto or farmland in Modesto than where they are now? That's the real question. Where should we be building because we have to build somewhere. And people are going to say well we don't need that not you know just like you said we we have enough homes. We don't need to build more homes. We do.

The problem is is how do we fix the the problem where we need more homes and nobody wants to put them anywhere. Right. Creates an impasse and then nothing gets done and then boom. Oh, how did Modesto die? Well Well, I mean it's a yes, how did Modesto it's not it's just how did the prices go so high that nobody can afford a house? Well, I'm going to tell you how you have five-story residential suburbs. That's what we need downtown. That's what we need to do, high rises. That's not a bad idea for downtown. Downtown would would be um very active if there were people down there living Well, when they put that soccer stadium in they can put some you know some high rises in next to it. Yeah. Well, what they need to do is what they said a long time ago is bring the ballpark downtown and then build up from that and turn it into kind of like a city that we should have.

Yeah, that would have been perfect but that's not going to happen. That deal's dead. You know they do have the Roadsters that's opening game is the uh 24th of May. Oh, is that what they call them now? Yeah, the Roadsters. They got rid of the What was the other one? The Cruisers. The Cruisers. Yeah. I don't think it was a it was something Cruisers. Yeah, yeah. No, it wasn't the Cruisers. It was something you know. Yeah, that was a that Roadsters. Well, that's so much better. But the whole idea of the new ballpark Is that is that something to do with nuts or something again? No nuts. Um No, but I'm just saying Roasters that you're roasting nuts. Yes. Oh, Roasters. I mean they can't get away from nuts.

I guess that's what the problem is. We that's all we focus on here. Yeah, it's actually there's a D in there so it's Roadsters. Oh, Roadsters. Yeah, because because Modesto is the capital of cruising. Thank you um Not Roadsters. What's the guy's name? George Lucas. Yeah, that guy's name. Yeah, but it had not because of him. Oh, yeah. American Graffiti was happening in Modesto. It's completely because of him. It's didn't happen. It was not it was not filmed in Modesto. None of those things are from Modesto. Oh, I think there was one scene that was filmed out on Paradise Road. What scene was that? That was a race scene between uh um not Luke Skywalker. What's the other guy? Han Solo and Harrison Ford.

Harrison Ford and and the other guy. Well, you're listening to Real Estate Jerky. I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor and lending for a living alongside REMAX executive realtor Mike Kelly. If you have questions or comments for us, feel free to reach out by emailing us at radio@realestatejerky. And that's fine but Modesto is known you know we have the graffiti. We have a bunch of stuff. We're known for a lot of different things. We're not just known for that. Yeah. Huge winery. Yeah. And the question is how do we move forward to get make sure housing people can afford to buy homes because right now I think the first time home buyer age is 40 and that's pretty old to be buying your first home.

Yeah and you're going to be spending I mean you're probably going to be spending between five and six for what a 40-year-old is going to want to live because if you're in the course, you're not going to be thrilled. And that's what people don't understand that the where, you know, the the what used to be a 350 then went to four, went to 450 and now five and people are go, what are you talking about? And that's like in my, you know, on in certain older parts of Modesto, you're you you just can't though house values are so expensive. You don't understand what those numbers are. It's not where it was in 2008 where people were buying them for 125 to 250. Yeah, so yeah, those days those days are gone for now.

Those days are gone. They're gone forever. Yeah, and the sad thing is those homes that you're spending 450, 500 for over time you're probably going to put $150,000 into them. So what do you do? Yeah, and then and when rates finally come down because the war is finally really over if we ever come out of this war. I mean it could be over right now. We just don't know about it. But the issue is that's when rates will go down. Once once oil starts going back down you're going to start seeing that and the lower the oil gets the lower the rates will get. And with the new war, you know, if war ever gets confirmed as the um what's it what the the thank you. End of the day, um his ideas that he has are really good.

They're really good ideas to keep the Fed more independent, you know, and these Senate and people are making these statements so that they get small dollar donations to their campaigns about, you know, Pocahontas was saying some really nasty stuff and everything they do. That's just for them to get their money for their campaign going forward. But I mean he was talking about how, you know, they're asking about independence if a Trump asked him to do this and he's like, no, this is independent. And he's willing he's worth like $220 million and willing to sell his stake in stocks and everything else to be the Fed chair. Who they wouldn't do that. They wouldn't do give up everything they have to be in Senate or Congress because that's where they make all their money.

They won't even give up their little grip on power. Um that's why we need term limits. We don't need Schumers and McConnells and Pocahontases still doing nothing but uh disrupting disrupting. But making statements, yeah. Stopping things from happening and make it better so they can get back into power. And forgetting the things they said 20 years ago. They all forget that stuff. Yeah, uh there's video, you know, there's video of everything. But they I didn't say that. I don't remember. And as long as they don't look at it. So long story short from what I read on Walsh, I think he's he's a very smart polished and he's ready to take the Fed in a totally different direction and I and new policy error and I think he's the right guy for the for this time.

You should get a hold of Trump and just say, you know, I agree with you. That's not what he's going to do because get him in because he said that. But I mean he is Fed needs to be independent and because you can't have the president controlling where we're going otherwise it would be horrible. Long story short. I have a tendency to agree with you, Ed. Well, that's, you know, guess what it is. Yes, it's that time again. Oh. Can't believe it. I can. That's a wrap for today. I want to thank you for being here. Thank you for listening to us. Mike, thanks for being here. If you have any questions or comments for us, you can find us via web, social media or you can shoot us an email at radio@realestatejerky.

com. You can give me a call Ed Parco at 209-404-1915. That's 209-404-1915. If you have questions about reverse mortgages, go to lendingforliving. com. If you have questions about um VA loans, go to loansquad. com. If you have questions for Mike Kelly, you can call him at 209-968-5633. You also can reach out to him about probate things at mikekellyrealtor. com. If you missed any of the show, don't worry, you can catch up via podcast wherever you find your favorite podcast at. We're proud to be in this country and still build personal wealth through home ownership. We're always here on real estate jerky every Saturday at 12:00 noon, Sundays at 3:00 p. m. on Power Talk 1360 KFBV. Mike, thanks for being on the show.

A pleasure. Thanks for having me. Thanks for tuning in to real estate jerky. We'll talk to you next week. Cuz we got small towns and farmland. Folks who still make a living with their hands. Where I come from a man is still a man. That's my California.