Stanislaus County Activity Holds Up as Inflation and Oil Keep Buyers on Edge

And now live from our smokehouse studio, it's time for Real Estate Jerky. All your real estate questions answered by our provocatively lean expert host, Edward Ed Parco, MBA, veteran and president of Lending for Living. We'll give you something to chew on. Real Estate Jerky is on now. Welcome to Real Estate Jerky. We always give you something to chew on. I'm your host, Ed Parco, MBA veteran and president Lending for Living. Our studio is located right here in Modesto with our producer, Mike Murray, and we're proud to bring you the latest updates and insights on the real estate market in our community. Thanks to our partnership with iHeartMedia and the station KFIV. You can tune in and never miss an episode by subscribing to our podcast.

Stay up to date by following us on social media. Joining me today is Mike Kelly, a REMAX executive realtor. How you doing, Mike? I'm good. Joining you today is like, hey, this guy's always there. Well, I'm just you were you could be gone. I could have somebody step in. Yeah, whatever. Uh-huh. Yeah, well, if you're gone, I'm gone. Well, it seems to be a wonderful day in the neighborhood. Um, how's your I know, how's your day going? Tomorrow is Porchfest. It's Saturday, right? Is it really this already? Yeah. Yeah. And then, um, in my hood, in the Northgate neighborhood, I'm doing a a Porchfest on the 24th. Um So you're doing it on the three-day weekend? The three-day weekend. There'll be a lot of people gone, but there'll be a lot of people around.

Why you doing it the weekend after and not the same weekend? I don't want to compete with the normal Porchfest. I, um, I don't want to draw people away from it. Do you have something against them? You have something against them? No, I don't. I I love them. I think they do a fantastic job and I just don't want to compete. It's okay. You can tell the truth. I tell the truth. Nothing but the truth. I just think it you split it up from north and south. So you're over in the college area or you're in Northgate, um, area. I got four bands, maybe five bands lined up and it'll be a fun day. So you're you're hoping to get everybody at your place? No, I probably get Last year I had about 100 people and I'm fine with another 100 people.

You have a keg out there? So you're going to have a keg, you're going to have the a couple of taco trucks. I think I have a taco flat top and I will have, uh, porta potties. No, I'm seriously. Like cuz you have that whole road, it's like put them down the middle of the road, close it off. And then Yeah. Yeah. I didn't do for a clo a street closure. What? Yeah, we really don't have to. We got the stage up against my house and we've got the the lawn across the street. It works out well. All right. I'm just checking. That's great. Well, I'm glad to hear it. If we get bigger, we can do that. Yeah, I'm going to go and not go around. Good. On Sunday, yeah. I can hear from my yard. I'll just hang out in the pool and listen to the from the yard.

Yeah, no kidding. We're going to electric bike it for a couple places. This this is this is the most, um, time I've earliest time I've been in my pool. Oh. I mean, cuz I normally we we're light bottom. Um Yeah, because our light color of the pool, this just doesn't warm up and we don't have solar, so. But I think I'll have to put solar in after I put the mini split in my garage. There you go. Yeah, cuz it's So you can work out in the summer. Well, I I can work out. It's just I can't work out all day long or anytime of the day. That'd be a long workout. All right, we might as well start the show since, uh, I don't know what's going on. Let's do it. We we we got that local, um, flair going. Now we can just talk about inventories and stuff.

Well, we'll talk about inventory nationwide first. And that's, uh, it came in at 767,132. So we're up 5,528 which I think we're going to increase next week also, um, because of the fact that, uh, we've had some really high I'll get into that in a minute with the mortgage banking Mortgage Bankers Association's numbers and the fact that rates are up higher because of this oil issue that we're having and the gas issue. Uh, they said the median price nationwide for listings is 449,900. That's up about 863. The median days on the market has not changed cuz nothing's close. It's at 56. I'm just kidding. And then price reductions are at 36. 07% up about another 0. 24%. Not a full 24%, that's 0. 24%.

We've been hanging around there for the last what, two months? We were in 35 for a while there. We were 34, then went to 35 and now we're at 36. But I always figure about a third of all listings are always priced wrong. Yeah, I was going to say what's the moral of that story? Sellers listen to your realtor. Yeah, I tell everybody listen to your agent. They know and especially writing offers on certain things, especially if there's somebody's been doing it for a while. They'll know they'll have a little maybe an insight knowing kind of what everybody wants potentially and just listen to them. Cuz I've had people like, well, I want to write it way low. And I'm like, okay, this is the only there's one other properties that's and I'm not the agent.

I'm just knowing as a loan person going, okay, there's they want 650. Another one just got under contact for 625. It does not have solar. You might want to pay the price and have the solar paid off. Yes. Right instead of, oh, I'm going to drop it and then ask for solar to be paid off. That's not going to work. No, no. Cuz would you do it on your house? No. Double whammy? No. They're selling a house, so it's always funny how they want full price, but then they don't want to pay full price. Well, that's just how it works. I know, but that's You know, my house was so much nicer and I got to do so many things to this new property, so I don't want to I don't want to just, uh, I want to haggle. You're listening to Real Estate Jerky.

I'm Ed Parco, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor at Lending for Living alongside REMAX executive realtor Mike Kelly. All right, I know, but that's just I always tell them, would you want that done to you? And they always say no, but then they're fine with it. Right. Well, they're fine doing it to somebody else. Um, an agent in my office was talking about, um, a situation he's got going on and the guy is the buyer has been super aggressive through the whole thing. He says, you know, I've been looking for a property, looking to purchase a property for three years. I wonder why. I wonder who the common denominator is here that's not being able to close these escrows. I think it's you. I think it's the agents.

Because he becomes Yeah, it's not this agent. This agent's really good. I said it's the agents. The agents because well, this guy's not rolling over. So. Yeah. So who so it's this you're saying the common denominator is the general The buyer, the buyer. And you know, he gets aggressive, he wants all these things and then if he if he doesn't get all those things, he wants to start screaming, you're not representing me and I'm going to have to sue you. And it's like, you're a bad apple, go away. I I would have gave him his contract back. Yeah, the energy I spend with you, I could sell four more homes. So. And there's a reason why you don't have a home after three years of searching. I mean, don't get me wrong.

Sometimes you have difficult buyers or sellers or I have a loan person and and that's just cuz they don't understand. But then you have people who are just a certain way and you have to be able to whether you want to work with them or not, you can fire a client. Yeah, no matter what your clients, you can fire me. Oh, no, I can't. I there's nothing that says I have to work with you. And you know, cuz it should be a nice relationship. It should be a nice process so that people want to do it again. It should yeah, it should not be the way that it's going. Cuz all you're trying to do is facilitate the purchase and and help them get into a property at the best terms available. Correct. But it's not going to be you have to understand this market.

Everybody thinks it's a buyer's market. It's not a buyer's market. It's we still don't have way more inventory than we have people even though you hear those stories. All you want to talk about your California for a few minutes? Yeah, let's talk about California. California is suffering. Not because of our of our governor. Yeah, because of our governor. But hey, the positive thing is you can get diapers now. I know, I know. And it only costs like three times the amount. I'm not quite at that age where I'm going to need them. I know, but if you're a baby, you get you they pay for your diapers. Every kid gets diapers. And I'm so happy that they're running that cash through, uh, Newsom's wife's NGO.

Oh, that just happened to be that way. It was the only one who was available to do it. Oh, no, it's not any money laundering or anything like that. Allegedly. Allegedly. Well, according to Redfin, who seems to be pretty accurate cuz it's just single family homes, 103,574 homes in the state of California. But according to realtor. com, which takes in everything, you know, single family one to four, um, and duple, you know, all those things, condos, townhouses, 153,156 active homes for sale in California. So we have 153,000 active homes in California. Okay, well, there's a couple you can choose from. Couple. But I mean, what's our local what's our local area? What do we have about almost 700? I wonder how many people 680, almost 700.

Wow. Yeah, I wonder how many people are looking for a home in Stanislaus County. Three. Well, then it would be a buyer's market. We have we have them there. They're just it's because and we'll get into this in the next segment, but it's because of the oil and the prices of the war and everything else is affecting. I mean, when it cost me $191 to fill up and that's at Costco prices, um, my diesel, that's that's, you know, you go wow. Your diesel. And it's $184 to fill up my gas F150. I know you got the big one. It doesn't matter, but I'm just saying it's that's just at almost seven bucks a gallon that gets a little ridiculous. And that was Costco price. Yes. So that you know that that's better than cuz I've seen $7, I've seen more than that for diesel all over the town.

Yeah, what are you going to do? Get your real estate and mortgage questions answered by the experts here at Real Estate Jerky. You can contact us at radio@realestatejerky. com. You can call me Ed Parco 209-404-1915. You can reach out to Mike Kelly at 209-968-5633. Talk about local numbers. Actually, first we talked about national numbers and how the inventory is up about 5,528 to 767,132. Mike told us about local stuff in California. I guess California not local stuff, which we had about 90,000 regular homes, single family, and then we had combined 130 something thousand, is that what you said? 153. Well, I was close. Yeah, you you just you transposed. You dyslexic those numbers. I was that close.

So how many was normal single family home? Uh, 103. Okay, so I was off on that too, but, uh That's okay. You you you when I start talking, your eyes kind of gloss over and it's like, hello Ed, where did you go? This coffee's so good. Yeah, it's peppermint peppermint mocha. But not from like, you know, Fatville. I've always just been a black coffee drinker. So it always cracks me up. All the diet people are like, don't put anything in your coffee. I I never have. I do have protein. I got to get my protein before a certain point. I sip my coffee, drink my protein. Sip my coffee, drink my protein. I just put them together so I sip. All right, and so all right, we talked about national, regional, and local.

And we talked about how inventory is moving up a little bit. We had we're close so far. 103 we said or did you get into that? 105 we closed in Stanislaus County from May 1st to this weekend. Right, and we had a good we had a good march in April. The question will be where are we going to be next month? And I don't think we're going to have that great a closing because if you look at I have around here somewhere, I got things everything all over the place. Uh, Mortgage Bank, where did it go? Uh, Mortgage Banker Association put out numbers for Indian last week for the, um, mortgage applications and they they showed interest rates were unchanged. Interest rates were at 6. 46. So that's up from we were like 6 and 1/8.

Rates are still about 40 basis points lower than we were last time in this year. Purchases only rose 4% last week and we're up 7% year over year. We were way higher than that early on. Refinances fell 1% and up only 28% year over year. What does that mean? That means rates are, you know, higher than what people are expecting and they're waiting. And that's what they're hearing. I mean, the Iran war has been going on for like, I guess the Hormuz thing's been closed for 70 days or it'll be long. I think it's actually 75 or 74 days to be honest with you. But I mean, and you know, we had Jerome Powell bye-bye on Friday and we had the new guy and and it was amazing. He just dropped rates right away.

Overnight, right? Yeah. Well, that was the problem. If you look And that's why everybody's like, what's the big deal with the I'll get into the CPI and the PPI. Well, with those things coming in hotter than they were expected, that just got rid of any potential for price cuts Right. for the rates. Yeah. They could do other things like buy bonds, right? Buy our mortgage-backed securities and stuff like that to help with that. And that's what Fannie and Freddie's been doing already because that's what they put into place. They did that earlier in 25, right? In the year. No, the 26. Was it 26? Okay, earlier this year. Yeah. Yeah. It seems so long ago. Well, it seems like Trump's been president for like forever.

That's because you hear from him every single day. We had a hamster before that just went in and went to bed. Yeah, so the CPI ran 3%, 3. 8% year over year, which is the hottest it's been in 3 years. Normally that's positive stuff. You want to be the hottest you've been in the last 3 years, but not for the CPI. And this morning the P uh this morning PPI came in this week also at 6. 0% year over year, which is supposed to have been only like 4. 3%. And that's the biggest jump since December 2022. Wow. Yeah, that's what the issues with the rates are. Um and luckily I talked about this a long time ago, the premium that we've had that was built into to have people buy the interest to buy the rates and everything, you know, loans.

That's the word I was looking for, buying these mortgage-backed securities in order for everything to close. We We were up to like almost 3% difference between what the 10-year was and what the current rates are. And then that's slowly come down to we're like 1. 8 right now. Yeah, 3% is big, it seems. Yeah, it was a lot. Yeah, and that's why rates right now we're still lower than we were a year ago because we were higher. We were two something at that time. Yeah, if we had that that built-in thing it would they would be sucky, right? Can you say that? I said it. No, you can't. I just did. You can't say that. Oh, well. Things happened. So I mean, so that's the biggest problem we have right now.

Both those things are hot. Uh the positive thing is we still have jobs being created in the private sector. We have uh I guess Microsoft uh last Friday uh everybody was at lunch and they said we're laying off 8,000 people. Oh, by the way, you 8,000 people, do you want a early buyout for for retirement? Yeah. And you don't have to come back. Yeah. You can just stay gone for the day. Yeah, open up a bar or or a uh a vegan restaurant. Well, that's just And that's what's happening. Certain things are they're cutting And you got to remember a lot of these companies are cutting. People don't realize they had so many extra people from the pandemic and they never let them go. They held on to them. And they're finally getting rid of all those people.

Also, it just happens to be at the same time that they everybody's saying it's because of AI. Well, there's You can only keep people on for so long. Right. And And you know, so many businesses double-stuffed. They had way too much middle management all the time. You know what I mean? All I thought about was Oreo cookies. Yeah, I'll go for an Oreo right now. Um and it's funny you say pandemic. I was just reading this little article. It says Bay Area medium price in the Bay Area is 1. 72 million, up 19% since the pandemic began. 19%. So prices could just continue to go up and up and up and up and up. Yeah, because and well, we go up higher than what everybody thinks it is. You're listening to Real Estate Jerky.

I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor lending for living alongside REMAX executive realtor Mike Kelly. Yes, prices are going up, but the million dollar ones have been sitting. And we talked about that last week that certain places they've decided to carry the note on those to get those things to move. Yeah. I was taught I'm It's a thing we used a long time ago, too. Yeah, whatever works. Yeah. If you don't need the money, where are you going to put it? Oh, yeah. To work at. So I um last weekend I met my soon to be in-laws on my daughter's the one up in Sacramento daughter daughter side. And they're from Southern We'll just say Orange County. Orange County, yeah. All right. And then what they So they started flipping homes in 2014.

He He's he worked for Wells Fargo as a big guy and came got got put moved out here for some stuff. And then those things, you know, certain things happened, pandemic and a few other things. And in 2014, not the pandemic, whatever happened, great recession. Right. In 2014 they started flipping homes and then they got into actual development. And they're building real homes. I mean, ground up and three story with elevators. Ground up. Automatic. Everyone has an elevator. Well, that's nice. Yeah. Cuz not everybody can do stairs. No, well, that's how these houses are, you with the view and everything else. But they're they's 3. 7 million to start. Yeah. Wow. Yes. And they're doing well. And they're selling.

And And they have another project. They're going to be out another 3 years to finish it up. And And they were looking at certain things in Sacramento. I'm like, don't look up here. Stay in your Orange County conservative area who loves you, who wants you to work there. They need the money. So the builders You go in for permits and they're like, yeah, we can do that for you. Boop, here you go. Go get it built for us. Sacramento would put them under. It It just would take forever. And they're like And that's We need the same thing all over that Orange County has for the rest of the state. And um and that's all I got to say on that. And just it was amazing to see. There's some things I'm going to do.

They they didn't realize AI could do so many things. And they were like, this is what we need done. I'm not saying it here cuz I don't want anybody to steal what we're doing. Yeah. Uh and I was like, you can do this this. And while they're talking about it, I went on my phone and and then I like, okay, I kind of built it for you. I just need to finish it up and clog code and And they were like, what? What? Yeah, so supposedly we're going to talk. We haven't talked yet, but I'm not going anywhere and I'm busy, so Yeah. whenever it happens. Yeah, but you blew them away. Oh, totally. They have no idea. And that's the thing that's out there. Everybody hears how bad AI is and how But I'm telling you the stuff that you can do with it that you and just it's You're limited by what you think.

I mean, that thing that you can connect certain things to do things for you automatically instead of hiring four people to do it, you can do it with the AI part. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think it's bad. I think there's a potential for scary stuff, but it's it seems to be doing very well. And the big thing, the scary stuff we talked about before this week was a lot of the stuff in the real estate industry we have. So the fraudsters what they're doing is they're calling up escrow officers and getting their voicemail and stealing that voicemail voice and and then turning it into a actual like the voice like that escrow officer is calling you for your funds and you need to get the funds in today. Here's the thing.

And they're sending it to the wrong place. They're also taking QR codes and adding a QR code on top of it so that you think it's that QR code. And here's the routing number. Yeah. Scary. Yeah, I mean, they're just You got to be very careful. So do not Yeah. get anything from voice. Only get it from documents. And if you want to, just wait till you actually sign your loan documents cuz you'll have a piece of paper in there that works. Here's what escrow officers should do with their voicemail. Make every voicemail a robot voice. Right, they should just do the regular voice that's on there automatically is not available at this time. Yeah. And then that way they wouldn't be able to do it. Or turn their voice to Siri or Alexa.

Yeah, or just, you know, whatever works. Yeah. But so that's what they're doing. And that's not a good thing. But you lost me. I was going to say something else on that. Oh, I screwed you up. I messed you up. Yeah, I forget what I was going to say. But yeah, just be careful with that going on. There's a lot of stuff. People are always trying They're working hard to get your money on everything. And there was a whole thing about uh I don't want to get into that. Could you imagine how much money they'd make if they just did something legally? Spent their energy doing Oh, they would probably still do very well. A lot less. A lot less. A lot less than them. Um so we've got a few seconds, right? Yeah.

So Sacramento's going to build a 1,250 unit rental project again. Oh, really? Is it affordability? For for yeah, for seniors, 499 homes senior project. So it's for rent. Yeah. Um we keep talking about this. That's their affordable That's how they provide affordable housing. Well, the question is how how affordable is it for seniors because seniors don't have a lot of money usually. Well, and those those senior units are never that affordable. I mean, it's amazing how much they get per month. They offer some, you know, I think you get two meals a day and um you can get in the van and go to a casino. So is this this a this a place where they take care of you or assisted living or is this just you have a place that you can get together kind of like those communities out in the I I think it's more like those places.

This is Real Estate Jerky on PowerTalk 1360 KFBK. And I'm Mike Kelly, REMAX executive realtor right here in the Central Valley alongside Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran, mortgage expert and president of Lending for Living. There we go. And we were just discussing We were just discussing rental units, but um Before we get there, I don't know if you saw this. Do you remember the old International Scout? Yes. There's a company who is remaking the Scouts. Are you serious? Yes, they're And it's called the Scout, I guess company or whatever. And they're And they're electric though. But they have a built-in charger with gas so you can go 500 miles. Really? Yes. Okay, built-in So in the front of it they have this little tank that you put gasoline in and it charges and I don't know how it all works.

I haven't seen cuz they're all concept. They're not out yet, but they look pretty cool. Um and I was like, that I could do because I like the Hummer, but you know, a Hummer again, it's only 300 miles. I don't want 300 miles. I want something further. And the reason I'm bringing this up is because I don't I love my truck and I'll keep it. But And I don't drive that much, so I don't really need my I need my diesel to go to the cabin. And but it'd be nice to have something that I could take to the cabin that I could actually go to the cabin and then go off-roading if I wanted to and right back and come all the way here. Right. So does this Scout charge while you drive? No, it's gas. I know it's gas, but is there is there like a governor you can turn it on and charge the battery while you drive?

Okay, no. No. I don't know about that. Okay. But I'm sure if you're going to go 500 miles, you're not running off the generator cuz that has to charge the battery. Yeah. No, no, no. Yeah. Yeah. No, I yeah. It probably is what it does is the gasoline, you know, you hear this and then you know you're on your you're not on the battery anymore or whatever. That's the only problem about those vehicles electric, they have no noise. Yeah, well, you can you can program a noise. I always thought, you know, somebody would uh put some speakers on the outside and make it sound like a vehicle. I think it's been done. I like the little uh early on when the Teslas first came out, there was a guy on the side of the road and he had gas can.

And the guy stopped and said, why do you have a gas can for a Tesla? And he says, well, let me open my trunk. And he opened up and there's a generator in there. He filled it up with gas and so he could keep going. I saw that I saw that on like a news thing or something too. And I tried that you walked, you did it. The reason I brought up the whole Scout thing first, it was nice and everything else, but I'm also was thinking that as, you know, batteries on the side of my house when I if I want to put solar because MID never really gave you money to do anything. So it was only, you know, and everybody says don't do it because you don't get any money back and, you know, it costs $30,000. You're not going to get your money back forever.

But the question really is if you could get batteries and then when they become cheaper or less expensive, it would make I would love to have the batteries on the side of my house and the solar so I can run the It would save me about 600 bucks a month. Right. Would it? Yeah. How'd you calculate that out? Cuz I know how much my electric bill is. Okay. 600 bucks a month, that's that's a pretty penny. So would you would you would this house need two batteries or more? I polished them. Uh well, I don't know. The question would be you probably would want two for twice as much storage. Yeah, I But the reason I'm bringing it up is I saw an article that was sent to us by our producer and they're putting a bill California Senate Bill 913 which allow utilities and grid operators to treat home backup batteries like real power plants.

Right. Opening the door for programs that can pay homeowners to share excess energy capacity during peak demand. That's better than what I thought they were going to do, eminent domain and take your solar from you during the summertime. Yeah, just steal it. Oh, by the way, someone's charging a Tesla and running their AC over here. No, I just mean they're like, okay, everybody with solar on there, we're taking them. They're eminent domain and we're taking all that energy. Yeah. It's crazy. It would be, you know, there's so many people We just closed escrow on a property in the country and he wants to be completely off the grid. I think he would need like five batteries. Well, well the thing is he could do a generator.

You could, you could and he did in his cabin. So. Yeah, but he doesn't have solar in his cabin. I know he doesn't, but he has a generator. That's for when the power goes out once like only during the winter. I know it. When it gets breezy. No, you know it it doesn't really cut off that much. I mean occasionally it does, you're right, but it's and it's like uh Well, the wind's got to be about 40 mph before they'll do that. The problem is I couldn't do solar on my property. I have to cut all my trees down. And you don't want to do that. That's the reason why you moved there. I like having them. Right. It's to see the trees. So, are you going to look into that? Yeah, but I I still think they're too expensive right now.

Yeah, and I don't I don't know what the shelf life is of a battery. How often do you have to replace them? And then where do you where do you throw them? Right. When you're done. You just put them in the street, they come do a pick them up. Yeah, you just call for a large pickup. Oh, they come pick them up. And then they take them to Morgan Road for a recycle. Or they just put on the or what I found you can just go out in the country and just lay it there and then somebody will pick it up. Let some farmer take care of it. No. Don't do that. Uh, but please. Customers add about 8,000 new home batteries to the grid each month. Did you know that? I did not know that. I did not know that. Yeah, that so that's a lot.

About 100 MW of new storage capacity according to the data from the California Public Utilities Commission. That capacity could go a long way towards reducing the strain on the state's grid during the hot summer days because we're not going to fix the grid, so we might as well just take their power. California spent years incentivizing and encouraging consumers to invest and distribute energy resources such as EV chargers, smart thermostat, rooftop solar and batteries to reduce the energy demand. Rooftop solar? Yeah. Well, I don't have any. So my goal was in my courtyard that I have that little pergola, I'd like to have a roof real roof put on and that's where I'd put my solar. Ah, okay. Yeah, you're listening to real estate junkie, NBA veteran and mortgage advisor for lending for a living alongside Remax executive realtor Mike Kelly.

Plus our roof is not that old. It's only about 7 years old. So I mean it's I wouldn't have to worry about that move. You know, so you you the thing about it, you do all this stuff every 15 to 20 years you have to do something. Right. Right. Got 25-year roofs don't last 25 years. No. No, they do not. Unless you get that spray. That spray? What's the spray? That makes the the there's a spray that they spray on roofs to make them last longer now. Keep the granules from falling off? I I yeah, but supposedly it works. Do you know what it is? No, what? Um, Elmer's glue. It's coconut water. Yeah, coconut water and you lose weight when you use it. So do you have solar? No, I do not. Um, solar in the Modesto area, you know, we've got a very dear friend of ours in our rotary that sells solar and He only I don't think he does anymore, but he did only uh ground mounted solar.

Yeah, well and it he told us it just doesn't make sense if you're on MID because you're you're not saving any money. Right. So. I have thought about doing just a few solar panels just to run the um the pool equipment though. Yeah, that's where the money's cuz I mine runs at night, but still it it's costly and everything else plus I have my studio plus you know I'm always here and the air conditioner runs all the time 24/7 you know. And then I have a wife who's you know goes through the change and so that it's got to be so cold at night it's ridiculous and but when I wanted to have it that cold I couldn't. All the time. Yeah. Right. Yeah, not perfect timing. The um yeah, that's crazy. Yeah. Mine's done.

Mine's done with the change. Mine's still in it. And she's such a sweetheart now. Well, I mean it doesn't just stop and go away. It's you're still they deal with it other things. All right, what else we got? You have you were supposed to talk about something. Oh, I was supposed to talk about something and I think it was about people leaving California um that there's too many. And we can't afford to lose anymore millionaires and billionaires and but according to AOC you can't earn a billion dollars so you just let us take the tax let us just take your money. You took that from me. Wait, and you took that information from me. I know I did. I stole it. So according to this article about we've lost about 54,000 residents um in California so far and nearly 288,000 people also moved out of California.

I think 54,000 means wealthy people have left and the other people are people like me that They said 788 billion dollars is less the state of income. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, good job. But the positive thing with all those people leaving according to another article that was sent from our from Fox 2, more Californians are able to afford a home as housing affordability hits a 4-year high new figures show and this is from May 11th. They're going, dang, why couldn't we have put this article out a month ago? Or or or 2 months ago because now you know cuz they are true. It's got it was better because prices came down a little bit and people are buying smaller homes or affordability and rates come came down and we got more affordable there for a while.

Um, I mean VA rates were in the middle fives and and FHA and then conventional was six six and eight that was lower not where we are right now, but it's still we're still good rates. We're still even as bad as where we are right now. We're still we're still better than last year at this time. That well that's very true. I mean last year this time it it We're about 50 basis points lower that means like a half a percent. Yeah. But stuff wasn't selling that that well last year 25. Because people didn't the people I know cuz rates were higher. Yeah. Yeah, I know and the just the world was so topsy-turvy and all that stuff. So it's so much better today. It is. Except for that war thing. Yeah, well I mean that's and that's what's throwing people off, but I still think it's a still a great time to buy.

It's houses are on the market. Uh, the one thing about it is like Tualumne County jumped on like in March and April. We had a lot done in March and April more than we normally would do in May, June or July. So we're way ahead of the year already because of this. So I just think May and into June's going to be slower and then July will pick up once this whole thing's over. Right. And they just and the thing is it's not going to get better until our oil prices come down because that's all tied to all that. That be the fact Jack. Um, yeah, no kidding. The um the Tualumne market is kind of an anomaly. It's the first time that you haven't had much snow Right. at all to deal with. So They normally jump on in May and June not March, April.

People Yeah, sellers are like well we we don't really have that snow. Let's go ahead and put the home on the market now. What's so funny is then you know I did that article and then it's like April home sales disappoint us higher mortgage rates weigh on buyers. Don't get me wrong, I'll find you an article one way or another to go either way. And it's true. Um, April sales not closings because April sales are May closing. Exactly. Exactly. Usually. Like April showers or May flowers. Sometimes. Um, yeah, but they what what what creates June sales? Real estate jerky on Real estate jerky on Power Talk 1360 KFB is always bringing you the latest information on the real estate industry and if you have any questions or comments about our discussion today, feel free to email us at radio@realestatejunkie.

com. Somebody asked me the other day um Brian Galki, he goes what do you think about that? I go I don't care. I don't care either. It's not going to affect me. Uh, the question will be at what point where the name really changed cuz I don't care what people say. That's like when Flagstar got bought and they were we're not going to change the name and it was changed to the other place right you know 6 months later and laid everybody off 8 months later. Right. They always say it's not going to happen so people stay on. It's going to happen. Yeah, they always say you're not going to do something too and then guess what you just did it. Um, I mean cuz there's real brokers all over the place. So Yeah, and supposedly we're supposed to the Remax agents are supposed to keep their their autonomy the Remax all that stuff.

Supposedly. Supposedly, but we'll see. And that's what I'm saying that's they always say that in the beginning. We'll see what happens at the end. You know, cuz you never know. Yeah. All right, what do we else? So in the first block we talked about and national numbers uh inventories up about How much was inventory up? Come on, you You said 5,000. Okay, I was for some reason I was that was in my head, but I was like I could be wrong. You told me all my other numbers were wrong. 5,528 that's 767 132 median list price is 449 900 median days on the market 56 as in changed and about 36% of houses have a reduction in price. You told me California numbers are 103,000 and then um single family only and then the whole conglomeration of 153,000.

Right and my national numbers are only single family homes so if you add more it'll probably a million. And in Stanislaus County where are we? 680 homes. On the market? And that's on the market and that's single family homes, condominiums and townhomes. Yeah, so I mean the the market is good. You can have choices and they're going to be there for a while. Values are still going up. I don't care what people say. There are they're waiting for the whole thing to drop. I saw somebody 2027 could be worse than the pandemic not pandemic the great recession. No, it can't. Nothing can be worse than the great recession because we have millions of homes 3. 5 million homes on the market that couldn't sell.

No. Yeah, that we well yeah, that we thought we would never get through, but we got through them. Right, and that's the difference. Right now only thing we have problem right now is we have oil prices up uh and yes it's higher than it was for a long time there, but what are you going to do about it? Yeah, we're about $107 a barrel right now. And the producer price index came in hotter than expected and the CPI what are you going to do? Just wait for it to get lower. Uh, that just means we're not going to have fed cut rates. They can do many other things to get the rates down, but the positive thing is the thing I talked about is the fact that the uh premium that's built into the rates isn't there anymore.

It's about 1. 8 uh versus what we used to have with 3% and that's why rates are so much better than they could be. Yay. That was a little clapping. Yeah, so I mean that's rates right now from what I read earlier from Fanny and Freddy was about 6. 5 I think I said 6. 45 and then so that means government rates are in the high fives. Like I checked something out that it was like six and eight. I'm sure the person was like what are you talking about? Well, it's your FICO score. Um, also Those are important. It's risk related. Yes. And again these are just examples of we're not exactly quoting rates here otherwise I'd have an APR. And mortgage applications came in lighter than they expected, but what what do you do?

People aren't going to move forward on loans and other things when rates are higher than what they need. And they you know it's it's we keep saying it's a perfect time to buy. When other people aren't buying it's a perfect time to buy cuz you you get a little bit more on your purchase and you're not competing against 19 other people. That will change quickly as soon as this thing stops over there in the in the land. Yeah, I mean I I was talking to somebody last week on a podcast and he did does manufacture homes parks you know parks. They've been buying parks and fixing them up and that's where they're making their money. Um, and I'm like that's the same thing that Berkshire Hathaway's doing and been doing forever.

They own so many of them. Yeah. And and just because when times are tough they they pick up because they're cheaper to live in. Yeah, it's it's the first affordable ground where people flock to. I could afford this. Till they go guess what we just cleaned up the park and now we're raising your rent from 900 to 1,200. Yeah, and then you don't pay cash for your home and you got that um mortgage to click in there too. Yeah, so I mean that's and a lot of these places come in and they you know they take over they you rent the place that's in there that somebody left from the management and so you just got to be careful no matter what you do. So that's why a lot of people who talk to me about selling their home you know at 62 or older they end up going reverse mortgage instead of you know buy the next one reverse mortgage or stay in their home because to sell their house have that cash and use it for rent you run out of your money within 12 to 15 years.

Yeah, can you buy a a manufactured home with a reverse mortgage? Yes, of course as long as it's on a permanent foundation. That's the caveat. It has to be real property. Can't be sitting in a park. Has to be real pretty. Gotcha. Park, you don't own the land, you lease it. It's personal property. And what if someone's going to say, well, how do you buy the pine crest cabins? Cash. Yeah, that's that is it. Cash. Cash. Or owner financing. Yeah, whatever. You're listening to Real Estate Jerky. I'm Ed Parcaut, MBA veteran and mortgage advisor at Lending for Living alongside Remax Active Realtor Mike Kelly. If you have questions or comments for us, feel free to reach out by emailing us at radio@realestatejerky.

com. So we we went over a lot and then we also would I would say we didn't cover much today what I but I'm just saying there's a lot going on. Be careful if you're in a contract and an escrow officer calls you, it could not be the escrow officer calling you, it could be a fraud. So be careful with that. There's a lot of that going on. Nine times out of 10, they're going to hand you paper Right. to to wire from. Right. And the question would be, um, ask them a unique question. Yeah. How tall are you? Because the AI is going to have a script. Yeah. It's not going to go off of anything other than that script. So if you ask it a unique thing, it'll mess it up. It's like somebody was saying that um on AI video, um what they can't copy and certain things they can't copy.

One of the things they can't really copy well is the Southern accent. Yet. No, they haven't been able to. The lady I interviewed another lady, she's like, I've been so lucky. I've been AI hates me though. Can't understand what I say. Oh. Yeah. She's she's at drolly. Mhm. Wow. Interesting. And she's like, and they have not been able to catch that. I'm like, yeah, in the uh Louisiana, I'm sure that French quarter, they nobody has a clue what they're saying. Well, you never do. I mean, you just kind of look at them and kind of point so I know what you're talking about. Life is what you make it. Life is what you make it. It is. Oh my gosh. You didn't watch Joe Dirt. I only watched it once. I haven't watched it as many times as you watched it.

I had kids who was into it. Yeah. Life is what you make it. Anyway. So just be careful is what we're getting at. But there are stuff coming on the market. There's price points all over. I have people, you know, I I'm what's funny is I not funny haha, but I have, you know, I'm doing a negotiating a short sale, which I haven't negotiated a short sale since 2010. About 100 years, yeah. 2010, 2011. And they're not going to happen much, but what happens is when if you have a FHA or VA, um they have to, you know, if you get behind, they have to wait 12 months before they can actually kick you out of that property. And they have to add that if you're staying, they can do a modification and include all that on there as a separate loan and you just keep making payments.

And then when you refinance down the road, you can pay it off or when you sell it. Yeah. Yeah, they can't just kick you out after 12 months. That's when they can start the foreclosure process. That's the right, correct. That's the that's and that that and they're like that's the I can't even talk. VA didn't have that. That changed this year where they have the partial claim where they can do that where prior to that they didn't have that. So they didn't have that protection like FHA did. So they changed it, which is the best thing they could have done for everybody. And it allows people because life happens and you know, you might just have a problem like you got laid off and you can't find a job because everybody that does what you did got laid off.

Gotcha. So you got to find something else. You work for a refinery and now you don't have a job because California doesn't want refineries. Yeah, because California doesn't want refineries in California. It's stupids. Well, they still have some as I'm told, but not as many as we used to have. Not for long. Yeah. Two, right? And another one's leaving? Yeah, I think so. Probably. Yeah. Chevron said bye. Did they? Yep. Did you get a card? A a sympathy card? A goodbye card. And guess what? That's a wrap? It's a wrap. Oh. Thank you for being here. Thank you Mike for being here. We appreciate you. Thanks for having me. Uh I hope we got you a little bit something to chew on today. If you have questions or comments for us, you can find us via web, social media or shoot us an email at radio@realestatejerky.

com. You can give me a call Ed Parcaut at 209-404-1915. You can reach out to Mike Kelly at 209-968-5633. For questions about probate, go to his mikekellyrealtor. com. He answers all your questions. If you missed any of today's show, don't worry, you can find us via podcast wherever you find your favorite podcast at. We're proud to live in this country and still build personal wealth through home ownership. Still possible. And join us here on Real Estate Jerky. We always give you something to chew on on Saturdays at 12:00 noon and Sundays at 3:00 p. m. on Power Talk 1360 KFIV. Mike, thanks for being on the show. My pleasure, Ed. Thanks for having me. Thanks for tuning in to Real Estate Jerky. We'll talk to you next week.

Cuz we got small towns and farm land. Folks who still make a living with their hands. Where I come from a man is still a man. That's my California.