Fed Says Inflation Is Too High, But Bonds Get a Short-Term Break

Good morning everybody. I'm Ed Parcaut with my Kelly Real Estate Turkey Daily. And uh I just got down the Rotary and we gave away or I guess they raffled off a while back. Yeah, yeah, whatever it is. Sweepstakes did off. A 75? Yeah, I think so. A really old vehicle. That drives like an old vehicle. Toyota Land Cruiser with no AC. It had no AC? Yeah, two windows 55 mph. Oh no, that's the I forget what they used to call that. Yeah. 5x5 or something like that. 255. 4 2x4 2x50. Yeah, two windows 55 255. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, so that was pretty cool, but uh again uh I I didn't win it and I thought I'd for sure win it today, but that didn't happen. I didn't win it either. But a guy in Woodland, California won it.

That's correct. All right, uh what do you have today? I got these numbers over here. All right, I'll let you go first. Okay, I'm going to finish that text. It's all done. Here we go. Are we ready? Mhm. Boom. Look at that. 865 active listings. We were We were 838 yesterday. Pending sales 365. We're at 373 and uh we were at 122 um closed transactions yesterday and now we're at 132. 132. Those are the four that came off of there. Just take the difference between pending. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Well, something could have been off the market, but you know, one of those one of those coming soons that a certain company in town has. God, they're all over. Down the street from my house there's a coming soon.

Yeah, I love when there's a coming soon sign out there for 2 months. And then oh, it it's already pending. Well, I bet she got top price for that. Nope, you didn't even expose it to the market. But hey, some people care about themselves more than their clients. It's tough when the market gets a little bit tougher and you start thinking about your next car payment or mortgage payment. Yeah, so the Fed had a decision yesterday which every loan officer My first post of whatever I can post it. Everybody got to know I came for me first. Yeah, what does that mean? Not a damn thing. Rates are actually the Did it soften the bond market a little bit? The the 30 year so rates right now are about 36 basis points better than yesterday.

The 10 year sitting at 4. 9467. How can that happen with the What did I say? They're going to do it to ease everybody's concerns and the everything and that's kind of what it did. Uh so the statement that he said which was pretty good is uh when they were asking him questions he goes the plain the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long. That's what he said. The other thing is I'm not a forward guidance business. And he was like reporters everybody are used to in the last so many years that you know we're what's going forward what's guiding he goes I don't do that. I only focus on what's going you know today. Yeah, I don't worry about in the future because I focus on what's happening today.

And that's a smarter way to do it. I'm not saying it's wrong or right, but it's a good way to do it. Yep. What's happening today? Well, if we could predict the future we'd all be in rosier shape. Yes, we actually we wouldn't be here because I wouldn't be working. I believe these numbers are going to win this week. That's right. Uh pending home sales which measures signed contracts on existing homes increased by 3/10 in August which was below the expectation of a 2% gain. Year over year pending home sales are down 4. 7% a decline from two a negative 2. 2% in the previous report. So uh again everything's going through the roof. Uh I'm sorry gas prices are going through the roof. Uh initial jobs claims came out this morning.

I was asking about Rick Santelli on the CNBC I was watching it this morning for Rotary and they they were doing the initial job with claims and it was reported at 196,000 claims for last week. That's right. What? Only 196,000? Yes, that is correct. That's a 10,000 decrease from the previous week of 206 206,000 if you know I'm not trying to say 206. And then below what they were so that was last year then currently what they were expecting was 208,000. They were expecting it to go up. It went completely the other way. Continuing claims also decreased by 39,000 to 1. 73 million claims which is lower than the 1. 78 million estimate. Wow. What they're stating is what we're seeing is we have a very strong job market.

People aren't getting laid off. People are not and not necessarily getting hired either, but no one it's not more people getting put out. And so this whole thing AI is going to take your job is not happening here. It's happening in other countries. Gotcha. All the all the virtual assistants who were doing stuff for people because you couldn't do it they're getting laid off because AI can do those jobs for you. They're virtual layoffs. Exactly. Uh housing starts for August were reported at a 1. 275 million annualized pace which is down below what they were expecting 140,000 of them from last month. The report of then they revised last month's number to 1. 415 million. What does that mean? We need like 1.

9 million homes a year created and we haven't been anywhere close to that number. So what happens with those different houses that aren't created? It's a backlog and then they keep adding. That's why they keep saying we're like 5 million homes short. And I think they don't even really know the real number and I think it's higher than that, but that's just the number they're using. 5 million behind. I think the real number would scare the crap out of us. Yes, housing permits which is a good indicator of the future of start you know of what's happening increased to 1. 394 million. Again nowhere close to what we said it needs to be. And that is down 39,000 from last month's figure of 1. 433 million.

Wow. The big thing that everybody's you know they're everybody's looking at rates. Rates are higher and when rates are higher people aren't really fast moving, but there's still there's contracts being signed and getting into contract and all the words I was trying to say. Left and right. It's happening, but we don't have but our numbers are lower than what they've been. But if you're in the business and you're working in the business, you're busy. I I'm busy this week and it's killing me because I'm wanting to do some other stuff and now I'm so busy. Yeah, and I'm behind. I have to today is a really busy day for me. Thursdays, Fridays usually I do business but other stuff too, but I won't be doing the other stuff.

I'm only going to be doing That's what the weekend is for. No, it's not. Weekend is for drinking and doing nothing. And you said you're not going to watch any football anymore because I'm done with Broncos. I'm that's they're dead to me. They're dead. Next year we always got next year. So what's the Travis Kelsey thing? He did something illegally? No, they they just uh they didn't catch the hold that he they should have had him for. Uh Oh, so he didn't do anything illegally? It was no it's Yes, it's wrong. Right, but And it's the whole Mahomes thing that always happens. I don't want to get into it and blame it. That's like oh my goodness, it was so humid and we're not used to that. Now give us altitude we do really well.

Um it was pretty humid and people like well how can the Chiefs do better? Because they're in it all the time and they're used to certain yeah, they're used to certain things. It was and yes we we didn't do great and our quarterback wasn't great. Well, that's the whole reason why you should be playing your quarterback in preseason and not saving him for later. Yeah, I heard that he got caught up in a Ponzi scheme where he was the victim of the Ponzi scheme and lost a buttload of money. Oh, really? Um and they're getting ready to go to court to sue the guy that took all the money from him. It was one of his investors that he invested with in a Ponzi scheme. And the investor sounded like had a name of um well they're Doey Cheatem and Howe?

Yeah, Doey Cheatem and Howe. They're those two um the the guitar player, wife and him are a little left leaning. So it's like oh you trusted somebody that is in your circle and they took advantage of you. How about that? Shocking. That always happens. You're always taking advantage by somebody you know, family, friends or something else because you trust them. Don't trust anybody. Wow. I don't trust you. Everything's in writing. Everything's in a contract. Everybody in front of attorney for everything. Especially if it's friends and family then nobody has a problem. Yeah, is that why my cousins didn't list their house with me? I dude doing stuff for friends and family is the worst. And you're so stressed because you're making sure there's not a problem.

Hey, Malik I know I know you're getting into real estate and you're still painting. Will you paint my house for free? Of course I will. You're my cousin. I'll do anything for you. Oh, and you listed with the other guy because what? So people don't know prime rates now at 7%. Yes. That's three points above the Fed funds rate. So that means the Fed funds would be at 4%. Did you know California homeowners carry more tappable equity than any other state in the country? Yep, yep. And we have more tappable wives either also. That's all I think about when I say tappable equity. Exactly. Hello. Be careful wire fraud out there. It's still out there. Do not get any document from any email that's sent to you.

If it's coming from your escrow company or whatever it'll be a security email through their servers now. My biggest problem with that is I do a lot with First American and they send me the and I couldn't remember I have so many different passwords for all the different ones that it messes everything up. Yeah, because when we did our last one ours it was like nope and wouldn't let me log in and then it was like that's not the right one and you're kicked out and I anyway. Hey, congratulations on closing escrow on your your uh land sale. Yes. Um that's kind of nice to have that off your list of things to do. Yes, it is very much so and that little payment every month is gone and every other headache that's with it was gone.

Yeah, that's cool. I don't know if it's cool. It was a great idea, but again Things change. You know, that's one constant thing in life, change. What? Well, that and taxes. Yeah, well death and taxes. And death. Yeah. And elephants. So now you're saying there's three things I have to worry about with constant that changes. Three, yeah. I'm not going to worry about it anymore. I'm just going I'm just going to live to be me. All right, I think we kind of covered everything, didn't we? I think so. There's not much I mean we talked about the what's going on. We talked about uh Nasdaq's up 418. I keep missing the Dow. I keep missing the Dow there, but I'm and that's the thing they're talking about.

Everything is doing really well, but people. Well, that's better. Yeah. I mean what I mean is businesses are doing well. People got money. However, because of the cost of everything it feels like you don't have any money. Right, because you're spending more on it just about everything. I guess Madame's rent freeze hits a little snag. Do you think everything is going to hit a little snag? How about his free grocery stores? Yes. How about his free buses? How about all that stuff? Did you know that um his constituents, the people that voted for him are now going to sue him because their businesses, their grocery stores aren't doing so well because of the free grocery store. Well, you know what they're going to do is they're going to give those people a grant to make up the difference.

So the taxpayers are going to be Yeah, it's like it's funny how people spend other people's money so much better. Yeah, so much better than you do. It's fantastic until the money dries up. Yeah, Dow's up 341. So everything's up. Yep, good. And that's what I mean. Most people who have money in the market their money's up and they're doing well. They can't go tap it and whatever because they're Means I made $3. 85 today. And I didn't even have to just all I had to do is wake up. Okay, that just sounds like you're crying. I'm not crying. I'm so positive. 385 is better than a 20. Yeah, all right. All right, let's go do it. All right, tomorrow's another day. We'll be back and then we'll be back on Saturday.

On Saturday. Yes, and again thank you Jim for doing the Yeah, you know I discussed with a couple people, couple of us Rotarians about should we talk about Jim in a negative light or a positive light. And you know what? Um all the bullshit he had to pull up with from the people on Facebook they were saying scam, scammers, scam, I never win so this is a scam. Oh, you never win because you never buy a ticket. Um did a great job. Yeah, well I just wish we had access to everything. Exactly. So that because if you're going to spend the money you should have those people so you can talk to them and tell them what you're doing about the club, doing different things. I don't know if we have that or not, but it's just everybody's capturing information all the time.

Yeah, and we hopefully we get the same so it's not so expensive the next time. All right, that's all I got to say. All right, everybody make it a great day and we'll be back tomorrow. Peace out brothers and sisters. Bongs and pipes. All right, bye. Cousins and nephews. Peace.